Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
USA Today
September 8, 2008
Pg. 12
Our View
U.S. must weigh interests, then use toughness, engagement, realism.
Is this Cold War II? In the month since Russia sent troops into the tiny neighboring country of Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally, it sometimes has seemed that way. In Russia, officials from the president and prime minister on seem to be channeling the 1970s or 1980s, trying to reacquire parts of their former empire while artfully stoking nationalist sentiment at home.
One can almost see future history books describing this as the inciting of a new Cold War: of how Russia provoked Georgia into sending forces into its breakaway region of South Ossetia; of how Russia then sent in its troops — into South Ossetia, into buffer "security zones" within Georgia, as well as stepping up its presence in another pro-Russian breakaway region, Abkhazia.
But that history isn't yet written. It's important to take a step back before it is. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (who is running the show, even though Dmitry Medvedev is the new president), clearly wants to provoke Cold War II to extend Russia's, and his, power. The Georgia invasion is his foreign policy gauntlet — for this administration and the next president. The U.S. has to be as smart as he is to avoid his trap.
That requires first asking just what is and what is not in U.S. interests. The most basic question is how important the two breakaway areas are to U.S. national security. The answer: not very. Particularly given that most people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia would actually prefer to be part of Russia. But Putin also is trying to dictate who controls Georgia, and with it an energy pipeline from the Caspian Sea that would further help his attempts to intimidate Europe by threatening to cut off oil supplies.
Two other important considerations loom large. First, the obligation to defend an ally and a democracy (Georgia is both). And second, the certainty that if Russian aggression goes unanswered, Putin will be emboldened to try to bring other parts of the former Soviet Union back into the fold — beginning with the eastern half of the Ukraine. Appeasement is always a bad idea, as Europe learned the hard way in the past century.
To date, the administration has played it about right. It is not pushing loudly for bringing Georgia and the Ukraine quickly into NATO, requiring a military response. It has, though, pledged $1 billion in aid and support, laying down a marker, and is in discussions with European countries.
As for the two presidential candidates, John McCain has condemned Putin more harshly. He wants Russia to be kicked out of the Group of Eight industrialized nations and kept out of the World Trade Organization. Barack Obama stresses the need to work with the Europeans. Neither is wrong. Handling Russia requires toughness, engagement and realism. It can't be ignored with all the high cards it holds, from a veto on the United Nations Security Council to the ability to put an energy squeeze on Europe, to influence in Iran and elsewhere.
The bigger challenge for McCain or Obama? To establish a no-nonsense relationship with Putin without triggering the second Cold War he seems so eager to start. Not easy, given the KGB-trained leader's cunning. But this is not yet Cold War II. Nor does it absolutely have to be.
September 8, 2008
Pg. 12
Our View
U.S. must weigh interests, then use toughness, engagement, realism.
Is this Cold War II? In the month since Russia sent troops into the tiny neighboring country of Georgia, a staunch U.S. ally, it sometimes has seemed that way. In Russia, officials from the president and prime minister on seem to be channeling the 1970s or 1980s, trying to reacquire parts of their former empire while artfully stoking nationalist sentiment at home.
One can almost see future history books describing this as the inciting of a new Cold War: of how Russia provoked Georgia into sending forces into its breakaway region of South Ossetia; of how Russia then sent in its troops — into South Ossetia, into buffer "security zones" within Georgia, as well as stepping up its presence in another pro-Russian breakaway region, Abkhazia.
But that history isn't yet written. It's important to take a step back before it is. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin (who is running the show, even though Dmitry Medvedev is the new president), clearly wants to provoke Cold War II to extend Russia's, and his, power. The Georgia invasion is his foreign policy gauntlet — for this administration and the next president. The U.S. has to be as smart as he is to avoid his trap.
That requires first asking just what is and what is not in U.S. interests. The most basic question is how important the two breakaway areas are to U.S. national security. The answer: not very. Particularly given that most people in South Ossetia and Abkhazia would actually prefer to be part of Russia. But Putin also is trying to dictate who controls Georgia, and with it an energy pipeline from the Caspian Sea that would further help his attempts to intimidate Europe by threatening to cut off oil supplies.
Two other important considerations loom large. First, the obligation to defend an ally and a democracy (Georgia is both). And second, the certainty that if Russian aggression goes unanswered, Putin will be emboldened to try to bring other parts of the former Soviet Union back into the fold — beginning with the eastern half of the Ukraine. Appeasement is always a bad idea, as Europe learned the hard way in the past century.
To date, the administration has played it about right. It is not pushing loudly for bringing Georgia and the Ukraine quickly into NATO, requiring a military response. It has, though, pledged $1 billion in aid and support, laying down a marker, and is in discussions with European countries.
As for the two presidential candidates, John McCain has condemned Putin more harshly. He wants Russia to be kicked out of the Group of Eight industrialized nations and kept out of the World Trade Organization. Barack Obama stresses the need to work with the Europeans. Neither is wrong. Handling Russia requires toughness, engagement and realism. It can't be ignored with all the high cards it holds, from a veto on the United Nations Security Council to the ability to put an energy squeeze on Europe, to influence in Iran and elsewhere.
The bigger challenge for McCain or Obama? To establish a no-nonsense relationship with Putin without triggering the second Cold War he seems so eager to start. Not easy, given the KGB-trained leader's cunning. But this is not yet Cold War II. Nor does it absolutely have to be.