Return of the Soviet Union?

I have stayed out of this thread intentionally to see your discussion and your conclusions..

Here is my opinion, it is in all parts mine and does NOT reflect the official standpoint of the Swedish government in any way, shape or form.

The reality is this.
The USSR, The soviet union, Russia..Whatever you decide to call it never really stopped being a threat towards at least the smaller nations in it´s hemisphere.
Sweden, Norway, Iceland or by all means the Baltic states and Chechnya are all examples of nations that never can afford to view the huge neighbour to the East anything but a military threat.
A failure to do so would be inviting Russia to get it´s way using threat of military force.

Now, the threat of a seaborne/Airborne invasion may have decreased together with the rusting invasion fleets in Russian harbors, but Russias ability to deliver a decisive first strike towards any of these nations is still enough to label them a real and present military threat.

As I stated in another thread a while back.
To americans a war over fishing rights/ oil rights and the use of Iceland may seem rediculous.
But to some nations it is a huge chunk of the economy, present and future.

A Russian government that decides to use military power to enforce whatever right to these natural resources they might think they have COULD and I stress the word COULD could turn into a hot conflict very very quickly.

Norway, GB, Denmark and as an extension Sweden would not let the Russians use military strength to enforce their policies.

Nukes are a thing of the past between nations (not counting terror attacks).
What I see as more serious is that the Russian are making the point: Our air assets can and will reach this far if they have to.
They are ready and able.

This will undoubtedly put more pressure on Norway and as an extension it´s neighbours that might or might not have interceptors on stand by during these sorties.

Cynical again..
//KJ.
 
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I agree with this completely.
For regional powers, Russia will be a threat.
I guess most of the people here see through the lens of America only so it's good to have a more regional input like this.
I know full well how a fishing dispute can turn hostile. South Korea and North Korea have had two small naval skirmishes because of this.
Also we had a few other emergencies regarding it as well though I'm not sure how open to the public the details are.
 
The world's just a crazy place isn't it?
I agree this is happening but more so than Russia, China will probably be a far more dangerous of a foe.
The world is always going to be a dangerous place.


Have you noticed? China is not a strict communist nation anymore. Their army is decreasing in size, and their government is slowly shifting to a more democratic state. China's biggest problems now are pollution and overpopulation. Not a arms race, or destruction of political rivalries. I am not sucking up, just saying, that China, has so much economic ties with the west, and have changed so drastically, that going to war with the west would cost both sides billions in economic trade revenue.

And also, not trying to sound like a(insert vulgar word here). But, I almost knew right from laying eyes on this thread, that the talk of Russian regional supremacy being reestablished, would somehow, lead to talks of Iran, being a Threat, China, being a threat, and the usually knife in the dark of North Korea being a threat. Stuff that we all already know, and are just rearranging the words ( country such and such will are bad guys).

What I am interested in is looking at the whole picture, not the military aspect, sure those guys can go in, kick some (insert vulgarity here) and all, but, then, think about it, then they have to govern that mess. And sure terrorism has no bounds, but think about the effects of the the locations that the may choose to place attacks? Look on the realistic side, not just assumptions of the old, "Russia is still the bad guy so one day we (your nation)will go to war with them and kick their....."

I figured that out when I was 7 years old. Now, I am interested on the international reception of such a conflict. Remember back in the days when the old Soviet empire stretched it's gaze over Eastern Europe, shortly before a small man named Adolf Hitler, began marching through? Hard to think that 30 years from then it was all Red. For their are reasons why fascism in Nazi Germany failed, their Furor was the main issue.

Think, what was some of the Reasons for the collapse of the USSR? Not just the superiority of Capitalism over Communism. Not just because of Mr. Gorbachev, Glanstont, and Perestroika, no.... Answer this, why did the Eastern Satellites break away? Why did after the iron curtain fall, did Yugoslavia, a former Red State, go to war with it's self , and inflicting genocide on it's one people?

One, the Russians, did not watch were their arms went, and did not have proper management over them. Heck, if you said, hey I don't like America, or the west, the Soviets basically threw rifles, trainers, planes what ever your heart desired at you now those arms are everywhere easy to get. Two, there are dozens upon dozens of ethnic minorities throughout Eastern Europe, most of them were forced to cooperate without any Identity in the crumbling Communists system. After having no religious freedom for decades, once the wall came down, and soldiers left the post, there were guns, and century old ethic debts to settle.

So, if Russia is trying to reassemble it's armed forces for a reestablishment of Europe, a sorta, small scale "reconquest so to speak" Then, in the now modern 21st age of information, where the media has the power of cruise missiles, and word gets out pretty quick, they , will like in Chechnya, will have to attempt to govern that Mess. And I think the Russians know that.

As what happens inside their boarders, is their business, Russia for years now have had problems in some form or another, But, name me a nation that doesn't? Just because some possible Neo Soviets are going around recruiting people, does not mean they are a threat, for now, they may have more chances of becoming a hate club, than a political power.

[Note, 100% of what I listed above is MY OPINION , the facts are on the political maps and news boards around the world. If I offended any one in any way, please let me know, for then you have my apologies.]
 
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I for one said nothing about any "regional conquests".
I simply stated that Russia is still a viable military threat to smaller nations in it´s hemisphere.
Military power to pressure smaller nations into concessions in trades and disputes are the greatest threat in my humble opinion.
But what do I know..

//KJ.
 
Your right, I can not make prearranged comments or anything, since you seem to be allot closer to Russia, your are correct on that aspect.

They have the world's second strongest Air Force. And have thousands of armored vehicles, compared to NATO's hundreds at any given time.

Smaller nations will see this as a threat, It's complete understandable. But, still a Noe Soviet in his spare time, being the President of Russia, may be not so much of a threat to the world as he is to his own people.

Hopefully the average Russian citizen has tasted freedom some how some way, and if Putin is truly modernizing Russia's military, which has been proposed for years. Then , it's also should be expected, think, if you nation's armed forces quite modernizing? For at least a Century?

If all of a sudden they did modernize, then it should be expected. For as crazy as it sounds, Russia has to defend it's self to. The west, is making a dizzying array of UCAVs, naval combat systems, and air burst and electronic case less ammunitions, I would be bitting my fingernails to....

But if they do still try to militarily impose their will on another nation, then they will have their hands full, once word hit's TV screens world wide of Russia, trying to bully a smaller nation into submission, then camera crews, will have Putin put under the spot light, their he will have to stand on the soap box and with stand the bombardment of questions and media assumptions, witch now adays can spark international sympathy.

For they tend to have a good ability of taking a bad situation , and exploiting it to a point of panic. Look at Israel in Aug 2006, there were on the verge of a large scale military conflict. But, basically the world stepped up and slapped them on the wrist, saying basically "no Israel you can't do that".
 
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First let me follow suit with KJ that I have read to see opinions, and my stated opinion in no way reflects the US of A's official stance.

There has been a lot of debate as to Russia's increasing power. I do not mean to be disrespectful, but anyone who thinks Russia will never become a threat again is sorely mistaken. I would like to remind those who forget history of the massive turnaround brought by the Germans from WWI to WWII. If you think that Russia can not become powerful enough to pose a real threat, then you simply have forgotten your history lessons.

That said, the reemerging Russian power will take time to develop and regain much of the lost ground. However, I do not doubt that it will happen, maybe quickly, maybe not.

I think that the world is getting smaller everyday, and while we as individuals may not care about a war somewhere far off for fishing and oil rights, we will care when those exports are cut off and/or used to fuel a larger war machine. Regional interests translate into global interests quite easily. Besides, one less friendly nation is one less helping hand in a battlefield, and someday YOU may need that person to pull your (explicative) out of the fire someday regardless if you are part of the 'biggest' or the 'baddest' military force on earth.

One more thing. I do not mean to be preachy, particularly to those who have already travelled the road I now begin. As a soldier, isnt it our job to perform no matter what? Whether it be Iraqis, Koreans, Chinese, Russians, or Redcoats, you had better be prepared to perform. In other words, just do your best to be the best so that when the baddies come for you, you can handle the baddies.

Go do PT. (except you sarn't)
 
I just did a mile 1/2.

Any way, you are once again looking at the military stand point, I understand that it has HUGE part in today's world. But if the Russian people in any way have any liking for their current state compared to the past Soviet society. Then they will not be so easily pushed under, and forced to participate in a older system called, the military machine. And what of the newer Russian generations, that were not around when the Soviet Union went under, and do not know what it was like to live in a society of that type?

I think in the coming years as the former Soviets die off, then the threat of Russian becoming a enemy of the world and cutting itself off once again is not well placed. Spartacus, I do respect you statement of being a soldier, although I may never know what it's like, I do have some respect for soldiers, it for the reason you listed above. It don't only apply to your nation, but to any nation on Earth. Just think about it, if you nation is ruled by a Totalitarian Society, that no matter how cruel or how evil it may be, if you are a soldier for them, then who do you fight for? You country or your Leaders?(I realize what I just said has no bearing in this conversation.)

I feel like I am being forced to make assumptions of my own. Based on Russia's current status, they will have to make bounds of research, and to pacify the general public, and improve quality of life for Russia over all, I am not saying they are a 3rd world nation, but you can always improve, even for nation like the U.S., second, money DOES make the world go around. Without, the Russian military has only training they excel in.

Sometimes, it's the gear, that strikes the fear. And when you have you need to watch how you use it, cause if you don't, and pull a uneasy or disapproved campgain, to reorganize your nations morals, and political system in one fell swoop, then the world will have all eyes towards you...

This has happened before, do you remember the Coup that struck the Soviet Union, while it was in it's final hours? The hardliners did not like Gorbachev capitalists and social ideals, and plans for the USSR, so they tried the old, make him disappear act, and look how that turned out.

I still look at the photos of Soviet tanks, surrounded by Crying Russian Citizens, waving the old Russian Flags, and hopping on board the machines, stuffing flowers into the barrels.

Look at this, times change, but, look at it, what does it mean?
 
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O.K.

Here is my point black and white. Russia can become a threat, be it militarily, economically, or politically. It could happen quickly, or could take decades. My point is DO YOUR BEST IN YOUR JOB. Whether it be avionics engineering, or infantry. My comment was directed towards soldiers because we are in a military forum and I am on that path but it applies across the board.

My point with the comment about someone pulling you out of a fire was directed towards the feeling that belonging to a nations military or certain branch means that you are invincible. If I am under fire, my national patch will not keep me alive, the men next to me will, be they American, British, Korean, or Swedish.

Something will happen somewhere sometime, so just be prepared for it.
 
Spartacus made some good points.

Sukio:
And you think the world opinion of Russia will deter them from using military power as leverage against smaller nations?
It isn´t really stopping them from trying to press Norway into conceeding rights to Iceland and the waters off her coast as we speak.
The only logical reason for flying sorties down past northern Norway at this time is to show their military capabilities.

And in case you didn´t know Norway is a NATO member.
That could make this mess yours in a very short timespan.
Sweden and Norway have decided to work together over defence strategies and gear purchases.
Do you think this is a random event?

As I stated, Russia isn´t a viable threat towards the USA at this point, but it is towards smaller nations in it´s hemisphere.

And a smaller conflict with a NATO member will infact drag you into a conflict that might be over before you get there, or it might drag out over time.
BTW what are you invisioning sending?
What type of assets could be made available on short notice right about now, would it stand up for a prolonged precence?

Threat of force is in itself a a greater diplomatic power aid then actual war..
That you should know.

The media are not going to do **** either way, the Russians just don´t care.
Get used to it.

//KJ.
 
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Also, you have to realize just because China isn't the old communist state we know and are going away from communism, this does not mean that they will be allies. In fact, a democratic China could be a bigger threat to the West and its neighboring countries than one under the lid of the Communist Party.
And Sukio, the Russian old communists dying off could be a bad thing. The new generation could in fact ROMANTICIZE the past and become an even bigger problem. They will know that it is humiliating for their once mighty country to be playing second fiddle in the world and they may find inspiration in becoming a major superpower opposing the US and being the center of anti-Americanism.
And KJ is right. You don't need to cause an all out invasion to make changes. Military presence exerting the right sort of pressure can do the same thing.
Also, Russia has this sort of strange sympathy thing from much of Western Europeans. So currently their acts are somewhat being ignored, especially with everyone's anger concentrated on the middle east and America right now.
In Europe, a NATO vs Russia power play thing is beginning to unfold already. How far it'll go is dependent on too many factors at this point.
 
Have you noticed? China is not a strict communist nation anymore. Their army is decreasing in size, and their government is slowly shifting to a more democratic state. China's biggest problems now are pollution and overpopulation. Not a arms race, or destruction of political rivalries. I am not sucking up, just saying, that China, has so much economic ties with the west, and have changed so drastically, that going to war with the west would cost both sides billions in economic trade revenue.

Actually, China is still very much communist. If anything, it's that China is becoming more capitalistic. Communism is a form of government and social structure, and capitalism is a form of economy. If YOU'VE noticed, China's government is still elected and controlled by a select group of people. Democracy or anything close to it would imply that the population votes for the officials. As far as i know, Chinese people do not have that day where they go to the voting polls only the select few in the Communist Party.

Even in its small change towards capitalism, China still taints that progress with its authoritarian control. Most (if not all) of the major businesses/industries in China are owned by the government, and the smaller ones are heavily influenced by the government (e.g. the recent mining accidents - small mining company has mining accident -> communist government says not to talk to press -> company shuts up).

As for your stated 2 problems of China today, for pollution, I hope they reap what they sow. As for overpopulation, well I hope they reap what they sow there too (one-child policy, license to have children, forced post-first trimester abortions, unbalanced ration of males to females...). Overpopulation in China could have been a positive thing but the "Cultural Revolution" did a piss poor job of revolutionizing anything except setting China back a few decades.

As for China's military... well actions speak louder than words...
 
Sweden and Norway have decided to work together over defence strategies and gear purchases.

Too joint participation in Darfur, and previously together on the Balkans, with great results in the joint operations there.

Personally I do think we'll see the shapes of a joint defence organization on the Scandinavian Penninsula; Finland, Norway and Sweden - as once before proposed.

However what signals are sent to NATO, the EEC (Western Union) and our closest allied countries England and USA?
 
Maybe that NATO and the ECC will get the idea that they just don't act fast enough, if at all.
Actually those entities never learn those things. They just try to stomp on what's threatening their existence.
 
Maybe that NATO and the ECC will get the idea that they just don't act fast enough, if at all.
Actually those entities never learn those things. They just try to stomp on what's threatening their existence.

Well put. An aggressive Russia would be a threat to their existence, but I still think it would come down to the individual nations, not NATO or UN, they like talking too much. And even if they do something, the ROE would be like they were in The MOG or the AU in Darfur.
 
What of the ISAF adventure series? And I don't think anyone notices, but, what of SEATO's records on efficiencies? IF Russian did grasp for power ( which I believe it is not going to happen, and if it does it will not be beneficial to Russia, or her enemies.) Then their subs will leave ports in the eastern coastline of Russia, and move once again through Kiagoon territory and patrol zones. Basically , the Japanese could share key info like that to nearby U.S. and other SEATO nations, and the cat and mouse of submarines would begin.

Kinda like a comical chase of hide and seek , except, in this version, the players each carry multiple nuclear warheads , or worse, radios....
 
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Sukio, you just described a Cold War pretty well there.
And I'm not sure but their priority probably lies with Europe and not with its Asian part of the country where China is going to be the dominant power.
 
What of the ISAF adventure series? And I don't think anyone notices, but, what of SEATO's records on efficiencies? IF Russian did grasp for power ( which I believe it is not going to happen, and if it does it will not be beneficial to Russia, or her enemies.) Then their subs will leave ports in the eastern coastline of Russia, and move once again through Kiagoon territory and patrol zones. Basically , the Japanese could share key info like that to nearby U.S. and other SEATO nations, and the cat and mouse of submarines would begin.

Tunnels. You can build a lot of tunnels in ten years time.
 
Russia is now spending the money from their oil sales on defense/offense. Also, expansion doesn't have to be described as gathering countries under a USSR type of control anymore. Russia has watched the US and learned that arming countries in Central and South America and Iran is a better and cheaper than putting them under a boot heel.
When Venezuela is up and running, the KGB can start to foment unrest in South America and keep the US off balance for a lot of years.
 
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