Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Miami Herald
February 25, 2007
Is the recent rash of U.S. helicopter crashes in Iraq and Afghanistan an unfortunate coincidence or a troubling trend? Many experts say it's too early to tell.
By Carol Rosenberg
Perhaps it is the searing memory of the Black Hawk helicopter shot out of the sky in 1993 that trapped U.S. troops in a bloodbath in Mogadishu, Somalia.
Maybe it was all those soothing images of war-wounded reaching safety and a chance at survival on the M*A*S*H chopper pad in South Korea.
Whatever the reason, a recent rash of U.S. helicopter crashes in Iraq and Afghanistan is rattling nerves -- and raising questions just as America is debating the wisdom of the White House's plan to escalate the troop count in the Iraq War.
Unfortunate coincidence or troubling trend?
Is the enemy encroaching on U.S. air superiority in the fourth year of the American invasion of Iraq, threatening a lifeline for the nation's vital network of forces?
Experts say it is too early to tell, especially as military investigators seek explanations and U.S. and coalition forces switch tactics to elude being shot down by insurgent gunfire.
''I think [the U.S. military] will adjust and fly higher and change the routes,'' said Donald Stoker, professor of strategy and policy for the U.S. Naval War College's Monterey Program.
Still, he noted, ``there's something about Americans and any kind of air crash. The media seems to make a big deal out of these since they're so spectacular.''
At least 60 American military helicopters have crashed or been shot down since May 2003, killing at least 179 people, according to a tally by the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
Seven, including a U.S. contractor's chopper, have gone down in the past month.
''It seems like things have gotten worse, not better,'' said Elaine Johnson of Cope, S.C., whose son was on board a Chinook helicopter that was shot down early in the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Her son, Army Spc. Darius Jennings, 22, an artilleryman, and 15 others were killed when a rocket hit the chopper carrying troops from Fallujah to a rest-and-recreation timeout on Nov. 2, 2003.
''It was shot down by a missile,'' Jennings' mother said. ``Five minutes up in the air, and it was just shot down.''
News coverage these days, she said by telephone, ``just reopens old wounds. He was on R&R and he was going somewhere to get some rest and his helicopter crashed.''
She learned he was dead the same day, 11 days before his birthday.
She buried him four days later.
U.S. forces in Iraq rely on helicopters to resupply remote bases or forward forces, and to move troops around, especially rapid-reaction forces who don't want to alert the enemy with a column of Humvees rumbling up the road.
Helicopters evacuate the dead, and especially the wounded, to secure medical units so fast that they are credited as a key to increasing survivability among critically wounded.
And they are a favorite of visiting politicians on fact-finding visits to safely hopscotch above the conflict zone for a bird's-eye view before going back to Washington.
Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that Americans should be ''extraordinarily careful about jumping the gun'' and concluding that the current upsurge in crashes amounts to ``a significant statistical impact.''
U.S. helicopters have flown hundreds of thousands of hours in Iraq, some in predictable profiles and at low altitude. For sure, he says, chopper crews are now shifting strategies -- randomizing routes to avoid predictability; expanding the security zone around landing zones, where they are most vulnerable; likely flying higher profiles; and probably increasing tandem flights and escorts.
''Give it four to six weeks to see how serious these things are,'' Cordesman said.
Still, these episodes draw attention, especially those where the suspicion was that a single foe with a shoulder-held weapon managed to wipe out a dozen or more U.S. forces.
Rather than release the names in ones and twos in the daily Defense Department casualty rollout, Pentagon practice has typically delayed naming chopper crash victims until the family of everyone on board has been notified.
An example: A Black Hawk went down northeast of Baghdad on Jan. 20, a Saturday, in what is now believed to be a coordinated ground attack.
It took until the following Wednesday for the Pentagon to release the grim list of the dead -- mostly senior enlisted and officers of the National Guard plus the military's chief medical officer in Iraq.
The average age of the victims was 42.
For Andrew Exum, a ready-reserves Army captain who served as a platoon commander in Iraq and Afghani- stan, the most troubling part of the upsurge is that the ene- my has apparently brought better tactics to the fight.
''They've been trying to knock down helicopters since 2003; now it looks like that they've figured out something,'' said Exum, who is currently a visiting scholar specializing in insurgencies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
''Bring down a Black Hawk helicopter, you're killing 14 people at one time -- 10 soldiers and four crew members. Insurgents are very smart; America's enemies are very smart. They realize that the point of weakness in Iraq has nothing to do with tactical weakness on the ground, it's American public opinion,'' Exum said.
America still controls the air, he said, and still can resupply forces, drop a unit into a fight and evacuate wounded by helicopter.
But, as he sees it, the enemy isn't trying to ''deny the Americans the air.'' They're fighting a hearts-and-minds campaign -- to demoralize American public opinion through dramatic attacks.
Now, he said, 'The real challenge now is to be a little patient and think, `What kind of countermeasures are we going to develop?' And, if we're in June and we have another really bad spate like this, at that point I will be really worried.''
February 25, 2007
Is the recent rash of U.S. helicopter crashes in Iraq and Afghanistan an unfortunate coincidence or a troubling trend? Many experts say it's too early to tell.
By Carol Rosenberg
Perhaps it is the searing memory of the Black Hawk helicopter shot out of the sky in 1993 that trapped U.S. troops in a bloodbath in Mogadishu, Somalia.
Maybe it was all those soothing images of war-wounded reaching safety and a chance at survival on the M*A*S*H chopper pad in South Korea.
Whatever the reason, a recent rash of U.S. helicopter crashes in Iraq and Afghanistan is rattling nerves -- and raising questions just as America is debating the wisdom of the White House's plan to escalate the troop count in the Iraq War.
Unfortunate coincidence or troubling trend?
Is the enemy encroaching on U.S. air superiority in the fourth year of the American invasion of Iraq, threatening a lifeline for the nation's vital network of forces?
Experts say it is too early to tell, especially as military investigators seek explanations and U.S. and coalition forces switch tactics to elude being shot down by insurgent gunfire.
''I think [the U.S. military] will adjust and fly higher and change the routes,'' said Donald Stoker, professor of strategy and policy for the U.S. Naval War College's Monterey Program.
Still, he noted, ``there's something about Americans and any kind of air crash. The media seems to make a big deal out of these since they're so spectacular.''
At least 60 American military helicopters have crashed or been shot down since May 2003, killing at least 179 people, according to a tally by the Brookings Institution, a Washington, D.C., think tank.
Seven, including a U.S. contractor's chopper, have gone down in the past month.
''It seems like things have gotten worse, not better,'' said Elaine Johnson of Cope, S.C., whose son was on board a Chinook helicopter that was shot down early in the U.S. invasion of Iraq.
Her son, Army Spc. Darius Jennings, 22, an artilleryman, and 15 others were killed when a rocket hit the chopper carrying troops from Fallujah to a rest-and-recreation timeout on Nov. 2, 2003.
''It was shot down by a missile,'' Jennings' mother said. ``Five minutes up in the air, and it was just shot down.''
News coverage these days, she said by telephone, ``just reopens old wounds. He was on R&R and he was going somewhere to get some rest and his helicopter crashed.''
She learned he was dead the same day, 11 days before his birthday.
She buried him four days later.
U.S. forces in Iraq rely on helicopters to resupply remote bases or forward forces, and to move troops around, especially rapid-reaction forces who don't want to alert the enemy with a column of Humvees rumbling up the road.
Helicopters evacuate the dead, and especially the wounded, to secure medical units so fast that they are credited as a key to increasing survivability among critically wounded.
And they are a favorite of visiting politicians on fact-finding visits to safely hopscotch above the conflict zone for a bird's-eye view before going back to Washington.
Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies warns that Americans should be ''extraordinarily careful about jumping the gun'' and concluding that the current upsurge in crashes amounts to ``a significant statistical impact.''
U.S. helicopters have flown hundreds of thousands of hours in Iraq, some in predictable profiles and at low altitude. For sure, he says, chopper crews are now shifting strategies -- randomizing routes to avoid predictability; expanding the security zone around landing zones, where they are most vulnerable; likely flying higher profiles; and probably increasing tandem flights and escorts.
''Give it four to six weeks to see how serious these things are,'' Cordesman said.
Still, these episodes draw attention, especially those where the suspicion was that a single foe with a shoulder-held weapon managed to wipe out a dozen or more U.S. forces.
Rather than release the names in ones and twos in the daily Defense Department casualty rollout, Pentagon practice has typically delayed naming chopper crash victims until the family of everyone on board has been notified.
An example: A Black Hawk went down northeast of Baghdad on Jan. 20, a Saturday, in what is now believed to be a coordinated ground attack.
It took until the following Wednesday for the Pentagon to release the grim list of the dead -- mostly senior enlisted and officers of the National Guard plus the military's chief medical officer in Iraq.
The average age of the victims was 42.
For Andrew Exum, a ready-reserves Army captain who served as a platoon commander in Iraq and Afghani- stan, the most troubling part of the upsurge is that the ene- my has apparently brought better tactics to the fight.
''They've been trying to knock down helicopters since 2003; now it looks like that they've figured out something,'' said Exum, who is currently a visiting scholar specializing in insurgencies at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
''Bring down a Black Hawk helicopter, you're killing 14 people at one time -- 10 soldiers and four crew members. Insurgents are very smart; America's enemies are very smart. They realize that the point of weakness in Iraq has nothing to do with tactical weakness on the ground, it's American public opinion,'' Exum said.
America still controls the air, he said, and still can resupply forces, drop a unit into a fight and evacuate wounded by helicopter.
But, as he sees it, the enemy isn't trying to ''deny the Americans the air.'' They're fighting a hearts-and-minds campaign -- to demoralize American public opinion through dramatic attacks.
Now, he said, 'The real challenge now is to be a little patient and think, `What kind of countermeasures are we going to develop?' And, if we're in June and we have another really bad spate like this, at that point I will be really worried.''