The precautionary principle (Is Iran Next?)

phoenix80

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The precautionary principle (Is Iran Next?)

James Harkin
Saturday September 24, 2005
The Guardian


Is Iran next? As the United States and Europe huff and puff about the country's nuclear ambitions and threaten to report it to the UN security council, we might be forgiven for experiencing a sense of deja vu. But is Iran really on the brink of developing a nuclear weapons programme, or is it simply bluffing and sabre-rattling?
We can hazard a guess, but the fact is that we simply don't know. Confronted with cases like these, lawyers tend to take refuge in the canons of international law and journalists tend to flatter themselves that everything can be traced to hidden agendas and smoking guns. Social scientists, on the other hand, have traditionally taken a more considered approach. Nuclear brinkmanship, according to theorists of decision-making, is no more than a game of risk, one in which we weigh the risks of doing nothing against the risks of applying greater political and military pressure.

That was until the precautionary principle came along. The precautionary principle started life on the fringes of the environmental movement in the 1970s as a way of nipping potential harm in the bud. Rather than arriving at a decision by weighing the risks against the likelihood of their occurrence, the precautionary principle ranks alternative courses of action by their worst possible outcome in order to make its decision. Put bluntly, it prefers to play safe. It evolved from its humble origins on the fringes of the environmental movement to other areas of social policy, and by the early 21st century, the principle - even if it didn't dare speak its name - had exploded into a doctrine to justify a pre-emptive invasion of Iraq.
What the precautionary principle brings to foreign policy is the idea that if we are not sure about the arsenal and intentions of rogue states and there is a danger of a nuclear catastrophe, we are perfectly justified in having recourse to military preventive action.

Donald Rumsfeld's ominous declaration about the "unknown unknowns" in dealing with the Iraqi nuclear threat is not as risible as his critics make out, but is hugely and silently indebted to the idea of the precautionary principle. Likewise, Tony Blair's post-facto admission that he was right to wage war on Iraq given the information available to him at the time is perfectly consistent with his application of the precautionary principle.

The same principle, sadly, can just as easily be said to apply to Iran. At least for anti-war environmentalists, the moral of the story is to handle principles with care. Without proper training - and a little like weapons of mass destruction - they are likely to blow up in your face.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/iran/story/0,12858,1577447,00.html
 
This will be the last thread allowed in the political discussion forum that is only an article. In the future, you must also write your opinion or at least something to get a discussion going. If you plan on only cutting and pasting an article, post it in the news forums or it will get locked.

Doody
 
Charge 7 said:
Or will Iran follow North Korea in negotiating an agreement that brings stability for all?

it is not just Nukes about Iran.

I guess, as Condi Rice has always said, it is also about Human Rights issues in Iran.
 
Iran is a danger just like North Korea. I say let's give the 2nd Infantry Division in S. Korea some extra help. Like maybe a entire Army Group and four Fighter Wings, and Two Bomber Wings.

I think Iran and be solved with the simple supplies of weapons to the Partisan forces fighting for freedom. That and a Airborne Division. Maybe the Fallschimjager can do some work. I know Germany has one strong militray, even if their government isn't.
 
Things I have heard about Iran, from Iranian businessmen I have met here are a bit different from the media. But these men are at the higher more priveleged end of the food chain in that country so I take that into account. These guys are businessmen and really don't take their islam seriously. They say the people who suffer the most there are the handful of christians and especially those who convert to christianity as it is punishable by death under the sharia for a muslim to convert to any other religion. BUT, according to them the vast majority of the population are happy with the status quo. But like I said, they're privileged and wealthy and I'm sure like most people in the world they run in a crowd of people in the same class as them.

I would be more concerned with a nuclear capable government that supports terrorist causes than any human rights problem. The human rights issue is an internal matter and more often than not its a hypocritical culturally biased judgement used to gain the moral high ground when a less popular reason is the true motive behind the scenes. Politics is such a dirty business.

In my opinion the current US administration should learn from Iraq 91 and take on Iran with the entire world community not as a lone gunman painting a bullseye on the chest of every american in the world. Bush Sr. got it right in 91 garnering support from the international community. It prevented the backlash with its focused hatred that has occured this time around.
 
bulldogg said:
I would be more concerned with a nuclear capable government that supports terrorist causes than any human rights problem. The human rights issue is an internal matter and more often than not its a hypocritical culturally biased judgement used to gain the moral high ground when a less popular reason is the true motive behind the scenes. Politics is such a dirty business.

Wrong!

You can't say human rights is an internal issue and nukes are external issue.
And you can't also trust a regime that doesnt care about its own people and whatever is going inside the country is a good indicator of how the government of that country is.

The iranian regime is not a responsible regime, that is why it shouldnt be trusted with nukes.
 
I sincerly hope that the world community could get their common sense togheter again, as in 1991. Problem with this is that Europe are afraid for Iran in general. They are not going to take any steps towards disarmament and regime change in Iran during to years of open border policys where so called Iranian refugees has gained a foothold in many of our European citys. Germanys army is strong today, but it is nothing in comparison to the massive forces of commando units already behind "enemy" lines so to speak. France got alot of bombs and dead people in the 80s when not doing as the Iranians wanted them too. Sweden let Iranian assassin commando units track and supervise our new so called Swedish citizens inside our own country in the 90s with our own Security Police SÄPO hands tied behind their chairs because of our socialist governments policy not to anger the Iranians.

So from Iranian embassys all over this country these agents of murder could operate free to map out regime critics and political involved former Iranian citizens untill they was taken out on French cafés. Our Security Police did know this was going on, as our government did. This is all out there on the main stream media and open for the public eye. It is no secret anymore, but as always when it comes to foreign cultures and religions, you dont find those reactions as you would have found amongs the real Sweds if it would have been Sweds that was killed on those French cafés. IMO you will probably find the Iranians with Nukes in their hands around 2006 and not untill one of them detonates in Tel-Aviv you will find strong condemnation of the Iranian regime.

IF they are ready to send any troops to help the Mid-East region to stabilized I find very hard to see, even if there are strong armys around Europe, you will not find the political guts to do anything about it. That would cost more civilian lives inside Europe then it would cost Iranian civilian lives in a operation over Iran. Thats why I think this whole senario is terrifying, lets face it Europe is doomed. The miscarriage of justice inside Sweden is a great example of how far these regimes has gone to abuse one's power vs the democratic rules, the civilized western worlds culture, openness, freedom of speach and freedom of religion. This togheter with a leftwing biased media all over Europe and the rest of the world will help us alot to become zones of cripled socitys with radioactive wastelands and brutal lawless regions under the barbarous sharia laws where you will find former leftwing and anti-war people in the knees of strong religious leaders such as them you find in Iran today, controling the people there.

You will also find puny minded former christians amongs them that gives up their essential libertys for temporary security. Then there will be them that actually will fight this thing. Today they are called right wingers, Christian fundamentalist that want to serve and protect modern Christian values from being destroyd. I am sorry to say this. But what other groups will lift a finger to save the western culture from total devastation? These guys togheter with the nationalists and some loyal units amongs the former countrys armys will be the militia that in the end can do anything if I am right. Europe will be a new Libanon and our capitol will be a huge non excisting Beirut. That is if our leaders continues to shilly-shallying with these forces that we got inside our countrys. But dont forget.

This will also keep on as far as the people continues to belive in this essential liberty for temporary security and belive in everything that the biased global media serves them. This is how it goes when people leaves everything in the hands of corrupt politicians and corrupt mega company directors and global banks. They can always take their familys out of harms way whenever they wants to. But they can only hide for a period of time. This evil will catch up with them too. But in what form? I dont think anyone can answer that question today. I say take out Iran while time still is and stop shilly-shallying and do something about it. Yes there will be alot of dead civilian Europeans but Freedom has never been free. And once and for all, make laws so this will not repeat itself again, and again and again. Because I dont think the WW2 was the last and greatest battle against evil anymore. I think WW3 is the final war of all wars.

North Korea "is a joke". Why even bother to do anything? They will leave us alone as long as we leave them alone, thats how simple it really is. Give the people a chanse to grow their food and they will eventually reform as China will do, however you can all kiss that dream goodby when it comes to middle east states. That is something that will never change as long as Islam is keept in its present form. To be honest, the same form of brainwashing and retraining of the Mid-East population happening to the German people after the war is essential to bring any stabilization in that region. That will include alot of victims but nothing else will work, and nothing else will work in Europe neither, I`m sorry.

Peace:
Doc.S
:viking:
 
Europe and America are sinking quickly back into fragmented states, some strong, some weak. For whatever reasons of separation from a union, however loosely formed, we have weakened ourselves by letting forces from outside and within our countries weaken our resolve to put freedom first and foremost in our ultimate goal.

The democratic way of life with personal freedom of choices is under attack. While we bicker and argue about the silliest, most mundane problems that even a child would not bother with, we weaken more every day while the enemy becomes stronger.

In the end, it won't matter how strong militarily one country is without the others. We can fight battles with Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles and stealth technology or we can merge and form a formidable force capable of wars measured in days or months instead of years.

Right now, we are facing an enemy which uses fanaticism and ignorance to form a force which is not fragmented to the same degree as the rest of the world and has demonstrated a willingness to win at any cost including self destruction which is accepted as a win-win situation for them. Now, just give them nuclear capabilities and a nice soft spot use them which is what some of us are gladly supplying, for money.

If there is a modicrum of self preservation left in our psyche, any common sense to tell us that doing nothing is no longer, and never was, an option, then God help us and our children.
 
This is going the way of pre-WW2 again. Does anyone see this? Who knows this divide with the West may even result once more in US isolationism, but I doubt it, more like a non-cooperative, non-cohesive foreign policy.

With left-wing socialist Europe going the way of appeasement. The policy of appeasement which was main thing that let WW2 happen ("Peace in our time").

The rift is again directly apparent, since the US is the one right now willing to challenge these threats, whether directly or indirectly. The WW2 equivalent would be the Flying Tigers in China versus the Japs.

Nothing short of treating the problem at the source will do. The problem being Radical Islam, the source being the Middle East. Right now the only one willing to do this is really the US (with a few allies). Europe as whole is only willing to go with the "lets just get along" with the fundamental radical Islamic influnce in the Midlle East, which will only bring them another Hitler. Which is just as well, since if this happens its the European cities that will be ones to burn.
 
gladius said:
The problem being Radical Islam, the source being the Middle East. Right now the only one willing to do this is really the US (with a few allies). Europe as whole is only willing to go with the "lets just get along" with the fundamental radical Islamic influnce in the Midlle East, which will only bring them another Hitler. Which is just as well, since if this happens its the European cities that will be ones to burn.

:bravo: I often happen to agree with you Gladius when you express your view on Europe. I sadly have to agree this time too. Hope you appreciate my country being one of those "few allies" in a world war that we are bound to win, at any price. What I see around me here in Europe is a decadent, wealthy and spoiled society not willing to call threats "threats" and dangers "dangers". I see people and leaders turning their back on impending responsibilities. I also see a lot of people who understand and are ready to face the challenge of this day, yeah I do. It's just too discouraging to see big countries like Germany France or Spain letting other countries's sons sacrifice their lives for all. This is what makes me sick.

Anyways :sorry: going :eek:fftopic:
 
Any allied help is greatly appreciated, and gains my respect for that country for willing to put themselves on line. I'm sure that feeling goes for others not only on this board but those that see the importance of this.
 
Adolf Hitler the 2nd?

Darth Vader ----->>>

PH2005091801414.jpg

President of terrorist superstate Ahmadinejad

Terrorist leader that keep hostages from U.S embassys up to 5 years. Here you have the 21st centurys Adolf Hitler in person. Problem is that he can be replaced by millions of others in a blink of an eye, by the real master of terror, head of cheif for all terrorism Dark Lord of the Sith Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei! The one that will kill every ****ing last one of us on this thread if we just gave him a chance to do so regardless if we worship him or are ready to give our lifes just to give back democray to the galaxy. The super star destroyers of womens rights the Sharia lovers **** yeah!

Emperor Palpatine the 2nd ---->>>

pic.jpg

Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei

Doc.S
:viking:
 
gladius said:
This is going the way of pre-WW2 again. Does anyone see this? Who knows this divide with the West may even result once more in US isolationism, but I doubt it, more like a non-cooperative, non-cohesive foreign policy.

With left-wing socialist Europe going the way of appeasement. The policy of appeasement which was main thing that let WW2 happen ("Peace in our time").

The rift is again directly apparent, since the US is the one right now willing to challenge these threats, whether directly or indirectly. The WW2 equivalent would be the Flying Tigers in China versus the Japs.

Nothing short of treating the problem at the source will do. The problem being Radical Islam, the source being the Middle East. Right now the only one willing to do this is really the US (with a few allies). Europe as whole is only willing to go with the "lets just get along" with the fundamental radical Islamic influnce in the Midlle East, which will only bring them another Hitler. Which is just as well, since if this happens its the European cities that will be ones to burn.

I have seen this long before any one say that! Seriously, today reminds me of 1930s when Nazists and Fascists were united to take over the world and most democracies were scattered over unimportant issues.


Doc.S
Terrorist leader that keep hostages from U.S embassys up to 5 years.

The American hostages were kept for 444 days... not 5 yrs! :shock:


A very good web site run by my friend James on US-Iran hostage Crisis

http://rescueattempt.tripod.com/



Admin edit: Please do not triple post.
 
phoenix_aim54 said:
I know him but you said US Hostages and I immediately thought of US Embassy!

My thoughts also. I knew of the other hostages but they were random kidnappings which was happening a lot. The US was very concerned about it's Embassy as that is considered sovereign to the country it represents.
 
Phoenix_aim54 fallaciously said:
I know him but you said US Hostages and I immediately thought of US Embassy!
Bold type added for emphasis by this author.


Phoenix I did not say that. I was just helpin a brother out.
 
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