Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Reuters.com
April 4, 2008 By Kristen Roberts, Reuters
WASHINGTON -- Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will not promise Congress large troop withdrawals beyond July, saying it is too soon to make decisions about the second half of the year, defense officials say.
Petraeus will tell Congress next week the U.S. military needs time to evaluate security conditions throughout Iraq before committing to more large troop reductions in 2008.
That assessment period, often referred to as a "pause" in withdrawals, has assumed greater significance for Pentagon officials after last week's clashes in Baghdad and Basra between Iraqi forces and Shi'ite militiaman -- fighting that raised doubts about the skill of U.S.-trained Iraqi soldiers.
"It is the kind of violence and lack of security that would certainly drive an assessment of what we would do after that (pause in withdrawals)," said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
"The period of consolidation and evaluation will take place and we'll take recommendations based on conditions on the ground there," Mullen said ahead of Petraeus' testimony.
That call for a pause will likely rile Democrats and other opponents of the Bush administration's Iraq policy, who have latched onto the Basra fighting as a sign the increase or "surge" of U.S. troops last year failed to move Iraqis any closer to security or political stability.
"I think it's time we take a sober look," said Sen. Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat and chairman of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.
"My question really is ... not whether the surge has tactically worked or not. Has the purpose of the surge been accomplished?"
The Pentagon is pulling five brigades, about 20,000 combat troops, out of Iraq under plans announced last year. Two of the five have already left.
The reduction will bring the number of combat troops down to the level of U.S. forces in Iraq before the "surge."
The United States has 158,000 troops in Iraq now and Petraeus is expected to tell Congress exactly how many troops will be in Iraq when current reductions are finished in July.
He may discuss the possibility of restarting withdrawals and the potential pace of any drawdown. But an assessment period will come first, according to officials who say the pause could last at least a month and perhaps much longer.
U.S. troop levels could, in fact, remain above 130,000 when a new president takes office in January 2009.
The pause will also add stress to an already strained U.S. force -- a problem often voiced by the chiefs of America's military branches, especially the Army. It could delay Pentagon efforts to get soldiers back to 12-month deployments, down from the 15-month tours they now serve in Iraq.
Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker will also be asked by lawmakers during the hearings next Tuesday and Wednesday to assess the success of the surge strategy.
The addition of combat troops last year has been credited with lowering attacks and deaths, especially in Baghdad. That led some U.S. officials to declare the surge a military success.
But other factors helped improve security too, including Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's order for his Mehdi Army militia to cease fire and a decision by Sunni leaders in Anbar to join U.S. and Iraqi forces in their fight against al Qaeda.
The New York Times, quoting senior U.S. officials, reported that a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq showed significant security improvements and progress toward resolving sectarian divisions. But the report added that security was still fragile and that extremist groups remained capable of big attacks, the officials told the Times.
"The N.I.E. update confirmed that the surge strategy the president announced in January of last year is working," a senior administration official told the Times in its Friday edition.
The period of reduced violence was supposed to create the calm needed for Iraqi politicians to move forward on measures seen by Washington as critical to long-term stability.
Progress, however, has been slow despite security gains.
The intra-Shi'ite violence in Basra, which led Britain to delay its withdrawal, appears to have underscored how far Iraqi factions are from reconciliation, some analysts said.
"The goal is a political deal and while in some areas you've seen the violence drop, we are nowhere near a political settlement," said retired Lt. Gen. William Odom, professor at Yale University.
"The recent incursions into Basra by (Prime Minister Nuri al-)Maliki's army and the fighting in Baghdad show you that even the Shia camp is fragmented, strongly fragmented, not anywhere near a political consolidation, not to mention the Kurds and the Sunnis."
Petraeus, who delayed his arrival in Washington this week due to the Basra violence, has already made his recommendations on the next phase of the war to President George W. Bush.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to testify before Congress on Thursday, after Petraeus is done.
April 4, 2008 By Kristen Roberts, Reuters
WASHINGTON -- Gen. David Petraeus, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, will not promise Congress large troop withdrawals beyond July, saying it is too soon to make decisions about the second half of the year, defense officials say.
Petraeus will tell Congress next week the U.S. military needs time to evaluate security conditions throughout Iraq before committing to more large troop reductions in 2008.
That assessment period, often referred to as a "pause" in withdrawals, has assumed greater significance for Pentagon officials after last week's clashes in Baghdad and Basra between Iraqi forces and Shi'ite militiaman -- fighting that raised doubts about the skill of U.S.-trained Iraqi soldiers.
"It is the kind of violence and lack of security that would certainly drive an assessment of what we would do after that (pause in withdrawals)," said Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff.
"The period of consolidation and evaluation will take place and we'll take recommendations based on conditions on the ground there," Mullen said ahead of Petraeus' testimony.
That call for a pause will likely rile Democrats and other opponents of the Bush administration's Iraq policy, who have latched onto the Basra fighting as a sign the increase or "surge" of U.S. troops last year failed to move Iraqis any closer to security or political stability.
"I think it's time we take a sober look," said Sen. Joseph Biden, a Delaware Democrat and chairman of the Senate's Foreign Relations Committee.
"My question really is ... not whether the surge has tactically worked or not. Has the purpose of the surge been accomplished?"
The Pentagon is pulling five brigades, about 20,000 combat troops, out of Iraq under plans announced last year. Two of the five have already left.
The reduction will bring the number of combat troops down to the level of U.S. forces in Iraq before the "surge."
The United States has 158,000 troops in Iraq now and Petraeus is expected to tell Congress exactly how many troops will be in Iraq when current reductions are finished in July.
He may discuss the possibility of restarting withdrawals and the potential pace of any drawdown. But an assessment period will come first, according to officials who say the pause could last at least a month and perhaps much longer.
U.S. troop levels could, in fact, remain above 130,000 when a new president takes office in January 2009.
The pause will also add stress to an already strained U.S. force -- a problem often voiced by the chiefs of America's military branches, especially the Army. It could delay Pentagon efforts to get soldiers back to 12-month deployments, down from the 15-month tours they now serve in Iraq.
Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker will also be asked by lawmakers during the hearings next Tuesday and Wednesday to assess the success of the surge strategy.
The addition of combat troops last year has been credited with lowering attacks and deaths, especially in Baghdad. That led some U.S. officials to declare the surge a military success.
But other factors helped improve security too, including Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr's order for his Mehdi Army militia to cease fire and a decision by Sunni leaders in Anbar to join U.S. and Iraqi forces in their fight against al Qaeda.
The New York Times, quoting senior U.S. officials, reported that a new National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq showed significant security improvements and progress toward resolving sectarian divisions. But the report added that security was still fragile and that extremist groups remained capable of big attacks, the officials told the Times.
"The N.I.E. update confirmed that the surge strategy the president announced in January of last year is working," a senior administration official told the Times in its Friday edition.
The period of reduced violence was supposed to create the calm needed for Iraqi politicians to move forward on measures seen by Washington as critical to long-term stability.
Progress, however, has been slow despite security gains.
The intra-Shi'ite violence in Basra, which led Britain to delay its withdrawal, appears to have underscored how far Iraqi factions are from reconciliation, some analysts said.
"The goal is a political deal and while in some areas you've seen the violence drop, we are nowhere near a political settlement," said retired Lt. Gen. William Odom, professor at Yale University.
"The recent incursions into Basra by (Prime Minister Nuri al-)Maliki's army and the fighting in Baghdad show you that even the Shia camp is fragmented, strongly fragmented, not anywhere near a political consolidation, not to mention the Kurds and the Sunnis."
Petraeus, who delayed his arrival in Washington this week due to the Basra violence, has already made his recommendations on the next phase of the war to President George W. Bush.
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates is expected to testify before Congress on Thursday, after Petraeus is done.