Pakistan will be a failed state by 2015: CIA - Page 4




 
--
Boots
 
February 15th, 2005  
Peter Pan
 
Lest there is a misconception, I was clarifying a misrepresentation that:

Quote:
but chinese gov are actually slowly turning democratic. so its actaully getting looser rather than tighter.
I only brought out facts in the public domain appearing in the English Langauge.

I am afraid I am not conversant with other languages.
February 15th, 2005  
SwordFish_13
 
 
HI,

I think the Whole 254 Page report is a good Topic For Discussion ........... Let me Start a new Thread


Till then here is the actual page that Started this discussion CIA Prediction for the year 2015 .

Quote:
South Asia
Regional Trends. The widening strategic and economic gaps between the two principal powers, India and Pakistan—and the dynamic interplay between their mutual hostility and the instability in Central Asia—will define the South Asia region in 2015.

* India will be the unrivaled regional power with a large military—including naval and nuclear capabilities—and a dynamic and growing economy. The widening India-Pakistan gap—destabilizing in its own right—will be accompanied by deep political, economic, and social disparities within both states.

* Pakistan will be more fractious, isolated, and dependent on international financial assistance.

* Other South Asian states—Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal—will be drawn closer to and more dependent on India and its economy. Afghanistan will likely remain weak and a destabilizing force in the region and the world.

Wary of China, India will look increasingly to the West, but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan will lead to strengthened ties to Persian Gulf states as well.

Demographic Challenges. Although population growth rates in South Asia will decline, population still will grow by nearly 30 percent by 2015. India's population alone will grow to more than 1.2 billion. Pakistan's projected growth from 140 million to about 195 million in 2015 will put a major strain on an economy already unable to meet the basic needs of the current population. The percentage of urban dwellers will climb steadily from the current 25-30 percent of the population to between 40-50 percent, leading to continued deterioration in the overall quality of urban life. Differential population growth patterns will exacerbate inequalities in wealth. Ties between provincial and central governments throughout the region will be strained.

Jammu and Kashmir: Ethnic Mix of a Disputed State (195k)

Resource and Environmental Challenges. Water will remain South Asia's most vital and most contested natural resource. Continued population and economic growth and expansion of irrigated agriculture over the next 15 years will increasingly stress water resources, and pollution of surface and groundwater will be a serious challenge. In India, per capita water availability is likely to drop by 50-75 percent. Because many of the region's waterways are interstate, water could become a source of renewed friction. Deforestation in India and Nepal will exacerbate pollution, flooding, and land degradation in Bangladesh.

India in 2015. Indian democracy will remain strong, albeit more factionalized by the secular-Hindu nationalist debate, growing differentials among regions and the increase in competitive party politics. India's economy, long repressed by the heavy hand of regulation, is likely to achieve sustained growth to the degree reforms are implemented. High-technology companies will be the most dynamic agents and will lead the thriving service sector in four key urban centers—Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore, and Chennai. Computer software services and customized applications will continue to expand as India strengthens economic ties to key international markets. Industries such as pharmaceuticals and agro-processing also will compete globally. Numerous factors provide India a competitive advantage in the global economy. It has the largest English-speaking population in the developing world; its education system produces millions of scientific and technical personnel. India has a growing business-minded middle class eager to strengthen ties to the outside world, and the large Indian expatriate population provides strong links to key markets around the world.

Despite rapid economic growth, more than half a billion Indians will remain in dire poverty. Harnessing technology to improve agriculture will be India's main challenge in alleviating poverty in 2015. The widening gulf between "have" and "have-not" regions and disagreements over the pace and nature of reforms will be a source of domestic strife. Rapidly growing, poorer northern states will continue to drain resources in subsidies and social welfare benefits.

Pakistan in 2015. Pakistan, our conferees concluded, will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military—once Pakistan's most capable institution. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government's control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi.

Other Regional States. Prospects for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka in 2015 appear bleak. Decades of foreign domination and civil war have devastated Afghanistan's society and economy, and the country is likely to remain internationally isolated, a major narcotics exporter, and a haven for Islamic radicals and terrorist groups. Bangladesh will not abandon democracy but will be characterized by coalitions or weak one-party governments, fragile institutions of governance, deep-seated leadership squabbles, and no notion of a loyal opposition.

Security and Political Concerns Predominate. The threat of major conflict between India and Pakistan will overshadow all other regional issues during the next 15 years. Continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent, prompting Indian leaders to take more aggressive preemptive and retaliatory actions. India's conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's superior economic position. India will also continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian Gulf oil to Asia. The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favor over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable. Both India and Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems.

Source
Ignore Anytingng you see about India in this report ............ Just try to Concentrate on Pakistan



Peace
-=SF_13=-
February 15th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Peter Pan
Lest there is a misconception, I was clarifying a misrepresentation that:

Quote:
but chinese gov are actually slowly turning democratic. so its actaully getting looser rather than tighter.
I only brought out facts in the public domain appearing in the English Langauge.

I am afraid I am not conversant with other languages.
well i think u got to be conversant in english since u do not know what this thread is about and learn to read (english) properly too, since i just china as an example. not to put out for discussion on its democractic issues.

"i have been going by rules"

well i hope u know what this sentence means.

but ur facts does not prove that china is getting tighter not to mention is it revelant for the topic either? mining and democarcy? right, how many US has hide about the losses in war during war time? and how many reports being hiden about rapes in kashmir? u got to know, each country hides its events.

do some research on that issue. rather than just suggesting something irrevelvan too.

learn to take critism too, because it seems u cannot accept the facts. i never blamed india for tsumi, perhaps ur blind rage blinds ur eyes or u just cannot interpret englihs properly? it was on the news no long about the indian gov is slow to react.

40% of indian are iliterate. just because u deny it doesnt mean its wrong. if u want facts, i can post it but not ont his thread. it was reported by the CIA. right, chinese propaganda huh?

u really need to learn how to take critism.

and no, i was taught in the US and born there, so i cannot be bombarded by chinese propaganda.

sorry back to the topic, i dun think that pakistan would be a failed state by 2015 because i think by the time pakistan would have realised these problems by then.......... and predicting a country's fall is not easy. and i dun think india would have taken pakistan since pakistan have nukes.
--
Boots
February 15th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwordFish_13
HI,

I think the Whole 254 Page report is a good Topic For Discussion ........... Let me Start a new Thread


Till then here is the actual page that Started this discussion CIA Prediction for the year 2015 .

Quote:
South Asia
Regional Trends. The widening strategic and economic gaps between the two principal powers, India and Pakistan—and the dynamic interplay between their mutual hostility and the instability in Central Asia—will define the South Asia region in 2015.

* India will be the unrivaled regional power with a large military—including naval and nuclear capabilities—and a dynamic and growing economy. The widening India-Pakistan gap—destabilizing in its own right—will be accompanied by deep political, economic, and social disparities within both states.

* Pakistan will be more fractious, isolated, and dependent on international financial assistance.

* Other South Asian states—Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal—will be drawn closer to and more dependent on India and its economy. Afghanistan will likely remain weak and a destabilizing force in the region and the world.

Wary of China, India will look increasingly to the West, but its need for oil and desire to balance Arab ties to Pakistan will lead to strengthened ties to Persian Gulf states as well.

Demographic Challenges. Although population growth rates in South Asia will decline, population still will grow by nearly 30 percent by 2015. India's population alone will grow to more than 1.2 billion. Pakistan's projected growth from 140 million to about 195 million in 2015 will put a major strain on an economy already unable to meet the basic needs of the current population. The percentage of urban dwellers will climb steadily from the current 25-30 percent of the population to between 40-50 percent, leading to continued deterioration in the overall quality of urban life. Differential population growth patterns will exacerbate inequalities in wealth. Ties between provincial and central governments throughout the region will be strained.

Jammu and Kashmir: Ethnic Mix of a Disputed State (195k)

Resource and Environmental Challenges. Water will remain South Asia's most vital and most contested natural resource. Continued population and economic growth and expansion of irrigated agriculture over the next 15 years will increasingly stress water resources, and pollution of surface and groundwater will be a serious challenge. In India, per capita water availability is likely to drop by 50-75 percent. Because many of the region's waterways are interstate, water could become a source of renewed friction. Deforestation in India and Nepal will exacerbate pollution, flooding, and land degradation in Bangladesh.

India in 2015. Indian democracy will remain strong, albeit more factionalized by the secular-Hindu nationalist debate, growing differentials among regions and the increase in competitive party politics. India's economy, long repressed by the heavy hand of regulation, is likely to achieve sustained growth to the degree reforms are implemented. High-technology companies will be the most dynamic agents and will lead the thriving service sector in four key urban centers—Mumbai, New Delhi, Bangalore, and Chennai. Computer software services and customized applications will continue to expand as India strengthens economic ties to key international markets. Industries such as pharmaceuticals and agro-processing also will compete globally. Numerous factors provide India a competitive advantage in the global economy. It has the largest English-speaking population in the developing world; its education system produces millions of scientific and technical personnel. India has a growing business-minded middle class eager to strengthen ties to the outside world, and the large Indian expatriate population provides strong links to key markets around the world.

Despite rapid economic growth, more than half a billion Indians will remain in dire poverty. Harnessing technology to improve agriculture will be India's main challenge in alleviating poverty in 2015. The widening gulf between "have" and "have-not" regions and disagreements over the pace and nature of reforms will be a source of domestic strife. Rapidly growing, poorer northern states will continue to drain resources in subsidies and social welfare benefits.

Pakistan in 2015. Pakistan, our conferees concluded, will not recover easily from decades of political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction. Nascent democratic reforms will produce little change in the face of opposition from an entrenched political elite and radical Islamic parties. Further domestic decline would benefit Islamic political activists, who may significantly increase their role in national politics and alter the makeup and cohesion of the military—once Pakistan's most capable institution. In a climate of continuing domestic turmoil, the central government's control probably will be reduced to the Punjabi heartland and the economic hub of Karachi.

Other Regional States. Prospects for Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka in 2015 appear bleak. Decades of foreign domination and civil war have devastated Afghanistan's society and economy, and the country is likely to remain internationally isolated, a major narcotics exporter, and a haven for Islamic radicals and terrorist groups. Bangladesh will not abandon democracy but will be characterized by coalitions or weak one-party governments, fragile institutions of governance, deep-seated leadership squabbles, and no notion of a loyal opposition.

Security and Political Concerns Predominate. The threat of major conflict between India and Pakistan will overshadow all other regional issues during the next 15 years. Continued turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan will spill over into Kashmir and other areas of the subcontinent, prompting Indian leaders to take more aggressive preemptive and retaliatory actions. India's conventional military advantage over Pakistan will widen as a result of New Delhi's superior economic position. India will also continue to build up its ocean-going navy to dominate the Indian Ocean transit routes used for delivery of Persian Gulf oil to Asia. The decisive shift in conventional military power in India's favor over the coming years potentially will make the region more volatile and unstable. Both India and Pakistan will see weapons of mass destruction as a strategic imperative and will continue to amass nuclear warheads and build a variety of missile delivery systems.

Source
Ignore Anytingng you see about India in this report ............ Just try to Concentrate on Pakistan



Peace
-=SF_13=-
nice report. but i dun think pakistan would be that much behind india either due to the fact china is going to be arming pakistan in a big way. if china's relationship with pakistan is till in a gd state, perhaps its not that easy for india to beat pakistan in war not to mention pakistan has nukes too, therefore both sides i think, would only produce a stalmate.

in fact pakistan is quite effective in fighting against "terrorists" too.

what do u think?
February 15th, 2005  
SwordFish_13
 
 
HI,

Quote:
perhaps its not that easy for india to beat pakistan in war not to mention pakistan has nukes too, therefore both sides i think, would only produce a stalmate.
NO It's not about war between India and Pakistan or India taking over Pakistan ............Chances of a war are remote....... It's due to pakistans Internal reasons that the report says Pakistan will face sevear problem till the yeat 2015.............If you read teh report carefully Acordign to it India would have no hand in the Downfall of Pakistan.......... it more Due to the Folling reasons as stated in the report

1, Political Turmoil ( Pakistan has never been Stable Politically )

2, Global Isolation

3, Economy ( Political Stability is Somewhat Propotoniol to a Strong Economy)

4, Their Desire to Blindly Compete with India ........... this can sometimes lead to adverse results.

5, Too Much Dependence on outside Countries ( Like Dependence on China and USA)

Right Now Pakistan is HOme to a Lot of Terror Organisation ........

Quote:
The Islamic Sunni Sipah-e-Sahaba and the Shia Tehrik-e-Jafria have been accused of attacking followers of the rival sects.

The Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is another Sunni group accused of violence.

President Pervez Musharraf says about 400 people were killed in the country in sectarian violence last year.

Read teh Complete Article here
Second the Terror Organisation that it harbors in P.O.K and those Working in Blauchistan Province might get out of hand some day.

Peace
-=SF-13=-
February 15th, 2005  
gingerbeard
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by SwordFish_13
HI,

Quote:
perhaps its not that easy for india to beat pakistan in war not to mention pakistan has nukes too, therefore both sides i think, would only produce a stalmate.
NO It's not about war between India and Pakistan or India taking over Pakistan ............Chances of a war are remote....... It's due to pakistans Internal reasons that the report says Pakistan will face sevear problem till the yeat 2015........ it more Due to the Folling reasons as stated in the report

1, Political Turmoil ( Pakistan has never been Stable Politically )

2, Global Isolation

3, Economy ( Political Stability is Somewhat Propotoniol to a Strong Economy)

4, Their Desire to Blindly Compete with India ........... this can sometimes lead to adverse results.

5, Too Much Dependence on outside Countries ( Like Dependence on China and USA)

Right Now Pakistan is HOme to a Lot of Terror Organisation ........

Quote:
The Islamic Sunni Sipah-e-Sahaba and the Shia Tehrik-e-Jafria have been accused of attacking followers of the rival sects.

The Lashkar-e-Jhangvi is another Sunni group accused of violence.

President Pervez Musharraf says about 400 people were killed in the country in sectarian violence last year.

Read teh Complete Article here
Second the Terror Organisation that it harbors in P.O.K and those Working in Blauchistan Province might get out of hand some day.

Peace
-=SF-13=-
i see, but acquiring nukes is very hard since nukes would be guarded very well. i think pakistan will eventually figure out that "terrorists" its not their enermy but instead work together, or may acutally fund it and to gain their support it against india perhaps?

i dun think pakistan will be isolated from the world. since pakistan havent just relied on US and china but also ukraine for some of its weapons too. i think pakistan at the moment is trying to make friends with the west. not just US alone but also europe.

political turmoil, well, its always going to be a problem, but that also applies to india too. tho india would gained the upper hand due to the fact terrorists are mostly in pakistan.

economy, well pakistan's economy is not doing very well, but compaing with india, it has slightly higher GDP tho. not trying to flame up india vs pakistan, but if the economy is not coping well then pakistan's GDP wouldnt be higher at the moment.

well alot of third world country is very dependent too, i am not sure that it is going to be too much tho......

neway what do u think on those??
February 15th, 2005  
SwordFish_13
 
 
HI,

Quote:
political turmoil, well, its always going to be a problem, but that also applies to india too. tho india would gained the upper hand due to the fact terrorists are mostly in pakistan.
By Political Turmoil it means Like today in 50 years of Independnce pakistan has had 4 MIllitary takeovers ............ these things will continus and will hamper teh Growth . ............... India has Always been Democratic if i remember Correctly .

Quote:
economy, well pakistan's economy is not doing very well, but compaing with india, it has slightly higher GDP tho. not trying to flame up india vs pakistan, but if the economy is not coping well then pakistan's GDP wouldnt be higher at the moment.
emmm what ,

Rank Order - GDP



1.European Union $ 11,050,000,000,000

2.United States $ 10,990,000,000,000

3.China $ 6,449,000,000,000

4.Japan $ 3,582,000,000,000

5.India $ 3,033,000,000,000

6.Germany $ 2,271,000,000,000

7.United Kingdom $ 1,666,000,000,000

~~~~~~

28 Pakistan $ 318,000,000,000
Source

Pakistan is 28 th in the rank what are you talking about ?

Peace
-=SF_13=-
February 15th, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
[quote="Peter Pan"]
Quote:
but chinese gov are actually slowly turning democratic. so its actaully getting looser rather than tighter.
Wishful thinking.

Are you aware that people in China cannot migrate to another town or village or go to see relatives without a clearance from the auithorities and a pass? They of course say it is essential to ensure that the resources of the place when the person is going is not overburdened.

quote]


en...u r funny..

i bet u never been to china before,
now i tell u , as i have been living in china for 13 years, u can go anywhere, visit anyone, migrate to anyplace as u want since 1990s...

and where is ur source to say 51% of china's something is like western investment??
February 15th, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
[quote="Sexybeast"][quote="Peter Pan"]
Quote:
but chinese gov are actually slowly turning democratic. so its actaully getting looser rather than tighter.
Wishful thinking.

Are you aware that people in China cannot migrate to another town or village or go to see relatives without a clearance from the auithorities and a pass? They of course say it is essential to ensure that the resources of the place when the person is going is not overburdened.

Quote:


en...u r funny..

i bet u never been to china before,
now i tell u , as i have been living in china for 13 years, u can go anywhere, visit anyone, migrate to anyplace as u want since 1990s...

and where is ur source to say 51% of china's something is like western investment??
February 15th, 2005  
Sexybeast
 
if india wants to compare with china,,,it is just too much difference..

china has no democracy, it is true, however, india's cast system is also disturbing...u know how many ppl being regarded as beasts and untouchble just because their mom are higher cast than their dads......
can democracy solve that problem?

and how many ppl in india can read? just a bit over 50%? in china nearly everybody can read except those old ppl who missed education in war....

u say china's economy is made up by western investment....give source?

and how about india?