Obama is looking good in the polls

errol said:
Obama is looking better and better by the day.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/in_depth/629/629/7360265.stm
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It seems to me (and I may be wrong here) that the only polls that count are ones of the battleground states, doing a general poll of the whole electorate can give some very misleading results.

Now to bring up something that may play a part in this, does anyone think the "Bradley effect" will have any bearing on this election?

I read some people who are saying in order to counter this "effect" Obama will need a 4-5% lead going into the election.
 
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

There also seems to be something called the reverse Bradley effect

Yes the lead does seems to be thin considering the uncertainties, perhaps Mccain looks like a good bet at odds of around 5.
 
So what you are saying is that the US elections are determined by an Australian betting firm?

I guess that will save millions on future elections any chance they can pick what day the world will end on so I can use up my vacation time before it happens?
 
MontyB said:
So what you are saying is that the US elections are determined by an Australian betting firm?

I guess that will save millions on future elections any chance they can pick what day the world will end on so I can use up my vacation time before it happens?
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I feel like I'm saying this a lot, but I'm glad you said it not me.
 
errol said:
If you think the odds are attractive for McCain climb on board.

You guys don't seem to do much punting. Fair enough.

Latest betting state by state at Ladbrokes.

http://www.grandparade.co.uk/clients/ladbrokes/us_elections/

Odds here are a little bit shorter for McCain but easy win predicted for Obama.
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A much better map but as you can see neither candidate has the votes to claim anything yet (even though it is a much easier race for Obama) this is why I have said that Virginia is the only state that matters for him because if he gets that one he doesn't need any of the other "light blue" States to reach 270 (I think it is a reasonable assumption that both McCain and Obama will hold all of the dark blue and red States at this point).
 
MontyB said:
A much better map but as you can see neither candidate has the votes to claim anything yet (even though it is a much easier race for Obama) this is why I have said that Virginia is the only state that matters for him because if he gets that one he doesn't need any of the other "light blue" States to reach 270 (I think it is a reasonable assumption that both McCain and Obama will hold all of the dark blue and red States at this point).
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I agree. Incidentally, Frederick Forsyth, a harsh critic, said today that in his opinion it would take an earthquake to shake Obama off since Powell's strong endoresement , given his standing with Republicans and military / political record.
 
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