NYT: North Korea's Kim Jung il deathly ill.

[mmarsh]

Interesting news in the New York Times FrontPage this morning. Apparently Kim Jung Il suffered a stroke and is seriously ill. Its doesn't suggest hes near death but it does suggest a level of incapacitation.

To My knowledge he doesn't have any children, so if we were to die or become unable to execute his duties who would take over? What impact would this have with the rest of the World?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/world/asia/10korea.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Thoughts?

 

[A Can of Man]

A variety of things can happen and none of the likely scenarios look pretty.

One, we can have a conflict between rivaling factions within North Korea trying to take the top spot.
Next we don't know what will happen.
The disaster scenario would be (I said this before the Russia-Georgia thing) that China sends its troops already amassed at near the China - North Korea border down on a "peacekeeping" mission taking maximum advantage of the chaos to restore order and try to install a puppet government and when successful, withdraw.
That's the disaster scenario.
The best scenario is, a successor HAS been lined up but its been a secret. He does't have kids but everyone knows who will be in charge next. Some sense of normalcy is returned.
I don't have TV and it's unfortunate I'm going to the US tomorrow. I'd like to see what the local press has to say about this.

 

[mmarsh]

A variety of things can happen and none of the likely scenarios look pretty.

One, we can have a conflict between rivaling factions within North Korea trying to take the top spot.
Next we don't know what will happen.
The disaster scenario would be (I said this before the Russia-Georgia thing) that China sends its troops already amassed at near the China - North Korea border down on a "peacekeeping" mission taking maximum advantage of the chaos to restore order and try to install a puppet government and when successful, withdraw.
That's the disaster scenario.
The best scenario is, a successor HAS been lined up but its been a secret. He does't have kids but everyone knows who will be in charge next. Some sense of normalcy is returned.
I don't have TV and it's unfortunate I'm going to the US tomorrow. I'd like to see what the local press has to say about this.

What kind of rivals are there? Rivals with the military, the party, or from elsewhere. I don't think the disaster scenario is likely, for one thing Korea is not part of China as say Taiwan was. But more to the point what would China gain? A 13th century backwater with very little resources. China has enough problems feeding its own population. Furthermore putting Chinese troops so close to South Korean and American troops would strain bad relations with both countries. China has sizable economic interests in the USA, I dont think it would want to risk that for North Korea of all places.

Kim Il Jung as always been unstable, I wonder what a return to normalcy would entail. It could mean a sizeable shift in Domestic and Foreign Policy. This could very well be the first time in 50 years that the il family is not running North Korea.

 

[A Can of Man]

Mmarsh, the whole point in a Chinese intervention will be to prevent South Korean and US troops from facing the Chinese face to face. It would also only make sense if the Chinese pull out once their goals are met.
North Korea is a country stuck in the 1950's. Not quite 13th century. But what it offers China is a stretch of land that is a great buffer zone. Mountain after mountain after mountain. Once you actually get to China, the amount and density of mountain ranges drops significantly and Beijing won't feel so secure anymore. The Chinese need North Korea that isn't on the South Korea/US side and needs to make sure it stays that way at all costs.
As for Korea never having been China. That depends on who you ask. The Chinese already state that Koreans are but just one of China's many elasticities and have been contesting with Korea over which part of Korean history is actually China's history. Also, remember that Korea for a very long time served as a vassal state of China (means you got to pay two taxes, yuck!).
Who knows... although it's not likely under a Republican government (as they have been rather serious about defending Korea traditionally), a Democrat run government could in fact strike a deal with the Chinese where the Chinese will install a puppet government in North Korea to stabilize the region while the Americans ensure that the South Koreans stay out of the whole thing altogether. It's possible under either party actually. In short, the US could pull off a Czechoslovakia.

 

[mmarsh]

Mmarsh, the whole point in a Chinese intervention will be to prevent South Korean and US troops from facing the Chinese face to face. It would also only make sense if the Chinese pull out once their goals are met.
North Korea is a country stuck in the 1950's. Not quite 13th century. But what it offers China is a stretch of land that is a great buffer zone. Mountain after mountain after mountain. Once you actually get to China, the amount and density of mountain ranges drops significantly and Beijing won't feel so secure anymore. The Chinese need North Korea that isn't on the South Korea/US side and needs to make sure it stays that way at all costs.
As for Korea never having been China. That depends on who you ask. The Chinese already state that Koreans are but just one of China's many elasticities and have been contesting with Korea over which part of Korean history is actually China's history. Also, remember that Korea for a very long time served as a vassal state of China (means you got to pay two taxes, yuck!).
Who knows... although it's not likely under a Republican government (as they have been rather serious about defending Korea traditionally), a Democrat run government could in fact strike a deal with the Chinese where the Chinese will install a puppet government in North Korea to stabilize the region while the Americans ensure that the South Koreans stay out of the whole thing altogether. It's possible under either party actually. In short, the US could pull off a Czechoslovakia.

You mean they are afraid of unification? Well I suppose that's a possibility. I am not sure about a buffer zone though as China shares borders with other not so friend countries like India, Pakistan, and Russia. In fact its surrounded by hostile countries, China has gotten used to that.

North Korea's is living more in the 1920s than the 1950s. They have no electricity, and their infrastructure and agriculture is ancient, I mean animal drawn power for tractors. I saw a documentary done by the BBC with a hidden camera (so they could film the parts they weren't allowed to film). It was shocking how back they had fallen.

I have always thought Korea to be the remains of the ancient Mongol Empire, whom were traditional enemies of the Han Chinese. This would make them culturally and ethnically different. I am sure the Chinese would want any western influance in North Korea, but I am not so sure they would stick their neck out for North Korea. Relations have been strained between the two recently...

 

[A Can of Man]

Key difference is terrain. With the border with India, that region is a VERY hard place to have any sort of mobility. With Russia, its most common areas of conflict are pretty far from population centers in general.
Also neither of these put them in direct contact with the US.
Also, having a North Korea unfriendly with South Korea will keep South Korea busy.
Yes, unification will, in the long run, hurt the Chinese. South Korea, if it can handle unification with North Korea well enough, will have a population boost and a territorial boost. The strain on the economy however, will make an alliance with the US absolutely crucial.
Yes, Korea is mostly of Mongol descent. However, that doesn't really stop the Chinese from claiming everything around them as being theirs.
China intervening in North Korea wouldn't be for the North Koreans. Look at the scenario I laid out for you and it plays in favor of the Chinese quite well. If they can pull off the "Peacekeeping" spin well, they might even get a favorable international image, though I would have to admit that would be very difficult to pull off.

 

[MontyB]

Interesting news in the New York Times FrontPage this morning. Apparently Kim Jung Il suffered a stroke and is seriously ill. Its doesn't suggest hes near death but it does suggest a level of incapacitation.

To My knowledge he doesn't have any children, so if we were to die or become unable to execute his duties who would take over? What impact would this have with the rest of the World?

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/10/world/asia/10korea.html?_r=1&hp&oref=slogin

Thoughts?

Hehe I was just watching a new report on this and the Japanese are claiming he died a couple of months ago and has been replaced with a body double (I find it hard to imagine he has a twin) while North Korea sorts out its internal power struggles and they announce a replacement.

All sounds kind of crazy to me but its almost like the end of the Leonid Brezhnev era where the West was claiming that he had died ages ago but they had frozen him and were wheeling the corpse out to mayday parades.[FONT=Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
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[A Can of Man]

You never really know what's going on over there.
Some of the higher ups in the political chain may have actually come up with a way to deal with a sudden and unexpected or expected death of the "Dear Leader."
Yes I've heard the Japanese claims but right now, no one knows for sure so I wouldn't exactly go there. It's not the first time Kim Jong-il hasn't shown up for a parade or anything.

 

[MontyB]

Well here is the BBC's take on this story, it does sound like a whole lot of maybes being used create a fact but who really knows.

North Korea's Kim 'has collapsed'
The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-il, "almost certainly" has health problems, a South Korean government official has told the country's Yonhap news agency.
The official said Mr Kim had collapsed, but did not say when or how serious his condition was. He said he had not died.
But a North Korea official denied the reports, calling them "worthless".
The reclusive leader failed to appear at a triumphant military parade on Tuesday in the capital, Pyongyang, to celebrate his state's 60th anniversary.
Earlier, Western intelligence officials said Kim Jong-il might have suffered a stroke.
According to the latest South Korean report, the illness is "not serious enough to threaten his life".
"It seems that he had intended to attend the 9 September event in the afternoon but decided not to because of the aftermath of the surgery," Yonhap quoted the official as saying.
Conspiracy claim
The North Korean official, North Korea's ambassador handling relations with Japan, said reports describing Kim Jong-il as ill were a "conspiracy" by Western media, Japan's Kyodo News reported from Pyongyang.
"We see such reports as not only worthless, but rather as a conspiracy plot," Song Il-ho was reported as saying.
It was Pyongyang's first reaction to recent reports that the North Korean leader was ill.
"I believe the aim is to form a public opinion on something that is not true. Western media have reported falsehood before," Song said, as quoted by Kyodo News.
Abnormal Indications
South Korean news agency Yonhap also reported that South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Wednesday convened an unscheduled meeting with his senior secretaries to discuss the health of the North Korean leader.
"Lee discussed countermeasures to a possible serious illness of the North Korean leader during his unscheduled meeting with senior presidential secretaries," a source at the presidential office said.
"The president and his senior aides discussed all abnormal indications from North Korea, as the North's situation appears to be serious following Kim Jong-il's absence from a high-profile founding anniversary parade on Tuesday," the source was reported by Yonhap as saying.
A ranking intelligence officer from the Office of the President in Seoul said a number of "unusual goings-on" had been detected in North Korea, but the exact health conditions of the North Korean leader remained unclear, Yonhap reported.
The BBC's John Sudworth, in the South Korean capital Seoul, says rumours were already rife about his well-being before the rally.
But Mr Kim's absence from the parade - he was not seen in any of the TV coverage of the event - will prompt further speculation, especially given the symbolic importance of the anniversary.
This is especially the case, our correspondent says, given that Mr Kim oversaw similarly triumphant occasions for North Korea's 50th and 55th anniversaries.
'Largest ever'
The anniversary comes amid an impasse in international efforts to urge North Korea to abandon its nuclear programme.


On Monday, state-run television channel KRT showed footage of the North's cabinet holding a large indoor gathering to mark the anniversary.
The cabinet released a statement, picked up by monitors in Seoul, saying that North Korea had a powerful army that would "mercilessly punish invaders".
According to South Korean media, the main parade on Tuesday was to be the largest ever staged by its northern neighbour.
"The North probably wants to boost the image of its military might in order to cement unity within the country and secure a better position in the denuclearisation negotiations," a South Korean government source told JoongAng Ilbo newspaper.
The future direction of North Korea is tightly linked to the personality of the country's reclusive leader.
Mr Kim has not been seen in public since early last month, giving rise to speculation he could be seriously unwell.
Mr Kim has been known to disappear from public view for extended periods before, and has always returned eventually, but this time the rumours of ill health have been given added impetus by news that a team of Chinese doctors was recently summoned to examine him.
Food shortages
The celebrations are taking place amid rising tensions between Pyongyang and the international community.
North Korea agreed in February 2007 to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for aid and diplomatic concessions, but the progress of the deal has been far from smooth.
After a long delay, Pyongyang handed over details of its nuclear facilities in June 2008.
In return, it expected the US to remove it from the list of state sponsors of terrorism, which the US has yet to do, so the North now appears to be starting to reassemble its main nuclear plant.
Meanwhile the World Food Programme estimates that North Korea is suffering from a serious food shortage.
The North has relied on foreign assistance to help feed its 23 million people since its state-controlled economy collapsed in the mid-1990s.



http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/7607513.stm

 

[A Can of Man]

And it's not the first time there's been speculation about his apparent death only for him to appear on TV or in public months later.

 

[MontyB]

Well it is official, no one has a clue whether this guy is sick (physically) or not.

North Korea's Kim Jong-Il 'still in control'

Kim Jong-il, the leader of North Korea, is still in control of his country, the South Korean government has announced.



By Malcolm Moore in Shanghai
Last Updated: 8:43AM BST 11 Sep 2008


North Korean Leader Kim Jong-Il pictured in October 2007 Photo: Getty Images


However, the 66-year-old is thought to have suffered a stroke last month and may be partially paralysed.
Lee Cheol-woo, the leader of South Korea's parliamentary intelligence committee told a radio station that Kim is "recovering fast", that "he has no problem speaking or communicating and he is able to stand if helped".
Mr Lee would have been briefed on the situation by South Korea's spy agency, which is believed to have the best information network in Pyongyang.
Security services also briefed an emergency meeting on Wednesday called by the South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and said Kim is "currently not in a serious condition", according to the president's spokesman.
Other unnamed government sources told South Korean newspapers that Kim had been operated on by foreign doctors, possibly from China and France, and that he was paralysed on his left side.
Chosun Ilbo, the country's largest daily newspaper, quoted an anonymous senior government official who said: "I understand that he is suffering inconvenience on the left part of his body."
Reports in China also suggested that a group of Chinese doctors had crossed into North Korea last month.
Speculation about Kim's health grew after he missed a parade earlier this week marking North Korea's foundation 60 years ago. He has not been seen in public since mid-August.
One academic, Professor Toshimitsu Shigemura at Waseda University, claimed Kim had been dead for a number of years and that his role was being played by a body double. "Kim Yong Chun, the army chief of staff, is in charge of choosing a successor," he said. "There will be little instability though. The army will not disclose his death until after the succession has been planned."
Even if Kim is well, it is likely that the army has put into place a succession strategy. "Nothing has been said about this and apparently talk of a succession is banned," said Aidan Foster-Carter, an academic at Leeds university who has studied the region for over 35 years.
"It is very weird, when you think about how meticulously Kim's succession was planned."
Professor Foster-Carter said any power vacuum could have very grave consequences. "This is a nuclear power and we don't know whose finger will be on the button," he said. "And it could be incredibly dangerous if some external power tried to intervene. China, South Korea and the US could get involved, and might not even coordinate their plans."
Cheong Seong-Chang, a researcher at the Sejong Institute in Seoul and an advisor to the ministry of Unification, said: "The atmosphere in Pyongyang is very calm. A bit too calm. It would normally be quite lively. If Kim dies without appointing a successor, it is likely that a succession struggle would take place at the heart of the party."
Meanwhile, South Korean officials declined to comment on reports that North Korea is completing a new missile test site which can fire long-range weapons.
North Korea allegedly has more than 800 ballistic missiles capable of hitting all of South Korea and most parts of Japan.

 

[A Can of Man]

Professor Foster-Carter said any power vacuum could have very grave consequences. "This is a nuclear power and we don't know whose finger will be on the button," he said. "And it could be incredibly dangerous if some external power tried to intervene. China, South Korea and the US could get involved, and might not even coordinate their plans."

Yeah so I'm not the only one who thinks it could be a possibility and a pretty bad one as well.

 

[MontyB]

Yeah so I'm not the only one who thinks it could be a possibility and a pretty bad one as well.

Agreed although I personally couldn't see South Korea or the USA jumping into North Korea without at least mentioning it to one another.

China is a distinct possibility though as I am not sure they would want another US ally on their borders.

 

[A Can of Man]

The motivation for a Chinese intervention would be to have a puppet state to act as a buffer zone against US/RoK Forces. Currently North Korea does fill the buffer zone role and I'm sure the Chinese would be nervous if that reality starts to change.
As for US/RoK relations there most likely won't be a strike or intervention without each other knowing about it but the bad case scenario would be the Chinese taking North Korea, South Korea wanting to secure as much of North Korea as it can while the Americans weary of a possible major war stopping the South Koreans from doing so which would leave the South Korean President in a VERY VERY tough position.
If the US pulled a Czechoslovakia on Korea, it may have to pull its troops out.