North Korea: What is going on there?

[boris116]

I have come across a very interesting lecture on North Korea past, present and future given by some Russian scholar in Moscow last week.
This guy(Andrej Lan'kov) teaches in Seoul and in Brisbane (Australia). He visits North Korea on a regular basis for many years.

Unfortunately, this lecture is in Russian(and I have no time to translate it - it is too big!)
http://www.polit.ru/lectures/2007/02/22/lankov.html
Some people are proud to use the translators like BabelFish...

1. The North Korean used to be a very "communist" society up to the 90-s. No retail (even state trade!) was allowed - only the distribution of goods by the state. The economy couldn't provide enough food and other goods for the population from the very beginning(1946). However, the government was able to milk the USSR and China for enough aid to just make it, speculating on the "american threat".
When the cold war was over, this system has collapsed and the north koreans have started to starve. The state couldn't provide enough food...
and the "grass-root capitalism" has popped up! The black market, contraband, illegal manufacturing...
2. The DPRK government is trying to roll those changes back now! Why?
Because it gets enough aid from the USA, South Korea and Japan!
3. The author has compared the north korean elite as people riding the tiger. The don't know how to get off, so they trying to preserve the current situation. It may collapse at any moment.
4. Nobody, including the south koreans have any idea what to do when it happens.
5. Re-unification of both Koreas would be very painful due to the huge difference of their development levels and stratification of the korean society. The norhteners would be pariahs for many years, even if they become eat more after the reunification.

I would be very interested to find what our South Korean friends think about this.

The author of this lecture has said that in the South Korean society prevails a very rosy picture of the North.. Is this true?

 

[sandy]

I can read russian a little but this article is too long for me.
Yes,for long time maddy north korea had been giving soviet a headache・・・・・
Now sometimes,I feel that america may use tactical nuclear weapons in north korea to end this situation quickly and let it china.

The author of this lecture has said that in the South Korean society prevails a very rosy picture of the North.. Is this true?

Yes,judging from south korean president that's true and the the author's view is totally right.
The US and South Korea have reached a deal to hand full control of South Korea's military back to Seoul by 2012.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/6391799.stm
As this article shows US-SK relationship reminds me US-philipin.
Those days Philipin　government thought whatever they made an unreasonable demand on USA,USA would'nt retreat from philipin.
But finally USA retreated from philipin in 1991,why?
Volcanic earthquakes and heavy rain?
But that was not critical reason.
Because after cold war,philipin was no more important　from a strategical standpoint.
And what happened to philipin?
They lost american support and Spratly　islands were invaded by chinese.
That will happen to south korea and they may recognize it after seoul bombed.
In a normal situation he should have said "We need american military bases in korea"
But his anti-american view and worshipping north korea made that situation.
Now,American has no reason to put their soldiers under enemy fire for not so strategically important ally・・・・・・・・・・・・・

 

[bulldogg]

Most of the Koreans I know are in favor of unification for one very important reason... it would eliminate the looming threat of war hanging over their heads every day. There would be a heavy price to pay similar to the one West Germany paid when they absorbed the bankrupt, backwards, and polluted East Germany but they say the result in peace of mind would be worth it. You also have to remember many families remain divided by the DMZ and family is EXTREMELY important in Korean culture.