Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Wall Street Journal
December 3, 2007
Pg. 5
Opposition Impaired By Failure of Sharif And Bhutto to Unite
By Yaroslav Trofimov
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Even after shedding his military uniform last week, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf retains formidable powers. How much longer he will continue to do so depends largely on whether his two main civilian opponents detest the former general more than they loathe each other.
The two, former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, have returned to Pakistan in recent weeks after years abroad, and they have re-entered the political fray at the helm of two well-organized political parties with millions of supporters.
Together, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif could have the popular support to force Mr. Musharraf into redrawing his blueprint for a transition to democracy, a plan that leaves the former army chief propped up by a judiciary packed with loyalists and empowered to dismiss the next elected government and the legislature. So far, however, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif, bitter rivals who served as prime ministers before Mr. Musharraf seized power in a 1999 military coup, have shown little inclination for such unity, raising the chances that Pakistan's political future will accord with Mr. Musharraf's vision. For now, the two politicians disagree even about whether to participate in the January parliamentary elections that are intended to vote in the next prime minister.
"Both the prime ministers want full power for themselves; they cannot share," said Farooq Leghari, who served as Pakistan's president alongside Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif from 1993 to 1997. "There's intense political rivalry between the two. I don't think they are compatible with each other."
That's good news for Mr. Musharraf, who is hoping that squabbles among civilian politicians will weaken the groundswell of opposition that has been building for most of this year against his rule and against his declaration of a state of emergency Nov. 3, when he replaced the Supreme Court with loyalists and suspended the constitution. He has since said he intends to lift emergency rule Dec. 16.
The question of whether to participate in the parliamentary elections Mr. Musharraf has called for Jan. 8 has emerged as a crucial fault line between Ms. Bhutto, who is seen as relatively pro-Western, and Mr. Sharif, who is more conservative and enjoys Saudi Arabia's support. Arguing that an election would be a farce as long as the top judiciary remains biased toward Mr. Musharraf, Mr. Sharif has called for a boycott by the entire opposition.
Ms. Bhutto, however, has consistently declined to join such a boycott, and she has already kicked off her campaign with a large rally in the city of Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. Ms. Bhutto's position is critical. As long as her Pakistan People's Party participates in the January vote, Mr. Sharif's Muslim League can hardly afford to make good on its threat to boycott the elections.
This split runs not only between Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif, both of whom have aspirations and realistic chances to emerge as the country's next prime minister. The powerful five-party Islamist alliance that has governed two of Pakistan's four provinces since 2002, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, has also split. One of its two main components, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, announced it will participate in the elections no matter what, while the remainder sided with calls for a boycott.
"There's general confusion in the opposition, and this is what Musharraf may have banked on," said Marvin Weinbaum, a scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute in Washington who served as Pakistan analyst at the U.S. State Department Bureau of Intelligence Research from 1999 to 2003. "They may have unity in wanting to get rid of him, but they cannot agree on anything else, and this includes simple tactics."
Amid this political maneuvering, the lawyers and pro-democracy activists who have been on the front lines of popular protests in Pakistan are increasingly finding themselves pushed to the sidelines of what's shaping up as a raw contest for power among politicians who share few of their democratic ideals. These idealistic activists remain vigorously opposed to any election until the Supreme Court judges ousted by Mr. Musharraf are reinstated.
"The judges have been stabbed in the back," said Sajjad Ali Shah, Pakistan's Supreme Court Chief Justice in the 1990s. "The politicians are aiming for one and only thing: a share of power, even if it means sharing it with the army.
"Every leader of a political party thinks of their personal interest, not the interest of the institutions or the country. They don't want the supremacy of the constitution or the rule of the law."
Similar feelings pervade the small but vocal demonstrations by lawyers and pro-democracy activists that still occur almost daily in Islamabad and other major cities.
"We are angry and disappointed," said High Court Advocate Riasat Ali Azad as he paused between shouting "Boycott!" and "Go, Musharraf, go!" at a recent demonstration. "It is unfair. We started this action, but now the political parties want to get the fruits of it and to increase their vote bank. The parties should stay with the lawyers, with the judiciary, with the civil society, instead of rushing to elections."
There are complicated calculations, both political and personal, behind the opposition parties' approach. Ms. Bhutto's return to Pakistan from self-imposed exile, for example, was facilitated in October by Mr. Musharraf's National Reconciliation Ordinance, a widely criticized piece of legislation that dropped pending corruption charges that relate to her period as prime minister in the 1990s. The ordinance did not grant similar amnesty to Mr. Sharif, who also is accused of corruption. A truly independent judiciary may not agree with this ordinance, reopening the charges against Ms. Bhutto.
Mr. Sharif, for his part, is an unlikely paladin of judicial freedom, considering he had sent his own party's thugs to the Supreme Court building in 1997, ousting the then-chief justice. The former premier is expected to try to make a last-ditch appeal for Ms. Bhutto's cooperation when they meet in Islamabad today in an attempt to work out a joint strategy.
"Musharraf has lost his political and moral credibility," said Khurshid Ahmad, director of the Institute of Policy Studies in Islamabad and an Islamist senator who supports the boycott. "If Benazir Bhutto would share power with him, she'll lose ultimately; the choice is hers between a short-term gain or a long-term benefit."
Any election boycott, however, is fraught with unpredictable consequences, as it would test the opposition's ability to rally supporters onto the streets and the army's continued backing of Mr. Musharraf. Despite promises of displays of people power, none of the opposition parties managed to organize a massive protest after the state of emergency was imposed. Mr. Musharraf, meanwhile, has declared that the elections will happen on Jan. 8 "come hell or high water," adding that he will deal decisively with anyone who tries to subvert the voting by force.
This means that despite all the talk of vote boycotts, the transition so far appears likely to proceed according to Mr. Musharraf's scenario.
"If you're not going to participate in the election, you've got to try to bring down the whole system," Mr. Weinbaum said. "There is nothing in between. Many people don't have the stomach for this."
December 3, 2007
Pg. 5
Opposition Impaired By Failure of Sharif And Bhutto to Unite
By Yaroslav Trofimov
ISLAMABAD, Pakistan -- Even after shedding his military uniform last week, Pakistan's President Pervez Musharraf retains formidable powers. How much longer he will continue to do so depends largely on whether his two main civilian opponents detest the former general more than they loathe each other.
The two, former prime ministers Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, have returned to Pakistan in recent weeks after years abroad, and they have re-entered the political fray at the helm of two well-organized political parties with millions of supporters.
Together, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif could have the popular support to force Mr. Musharraf into redrawing his blueprint for a transition to democracy, a plan that leaves the former army chief propped up by a judiciary packed with loyalists and empowered to dismiss the next elected government and the legislature. So far, however, Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif, bitter rivals who served as prime ministers before Mr. Musharraf seized power in a 1999 military coup, have shown little inclination for such unity, raising the chances that Pakistan's political future will accord with Mr. Musharraf's vision. For now, the two politicians disagree even about whether to participate in the January parliamentary elections that are intended to vote in the next prime minister.
"Both the prime ministers want full power for themselves; they cannot share," said Farooq Leghari, who served as Pakistan's president alongside Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif from 1993 to 1997. "There's intense political rivalry between the two. I don't think they are compatible with each other."
That's good news for Mr. Musharraf, who is hoping that squabbles among civilian politicians will weaken the groundswell of opposition that has been building for most of this year against his rule and against his declaration of a state of emergency Nov. 3, when he replaced the Supreme Court with loyalists and suspended the constitution. He has since said he intends to lift emergency rule Dec. 16.
The question of whether to participate in the parliamentary elections Mr. Musharraf has called for Jan. 8 has emerged as a crucial fault line between Ms. Bhutto, who is seen as relatively pro-Western, and Mr. Sharif, who is more conservative and enjoys Saudi Arabia's support. Arguing that an election would be a farce as long as the top judiciary remains biased toward Mr. Musharraf, Mr. Sharif has called for a boycott by the entire opposition.
Ms. Bhutto, however, has consistently declined to join such a boycott, and she has already kicked off her campaign with a large rally in the city of Rawalpindi, near Islamabad. Ms. Bhutto's position is critical. As long as her Pakistan People's Party participates in the January vote, Mr. Sharif's Muslim League can hardly afford to make good on its threat to boycott the elections.
This split runs not only between Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Sharif, both of whom have aspirations and realistic chances to emerge as the country's next prime minister. The powerful five-party Islamist alliance that has governed two of Pakistan's four provinces since 2002, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal, has also split. One of its two main components, Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam, announced it will participate in the elections no matter what, while the remainder sided with calls for a boycott.
"There's general confusion in the opposition, and this is what Musharraf may have banked on," said Marvin Weinbaum, a scholar-in-residence at the Middle East Institute in Washington who served as Pakistan analyst at the U.S. State Department Bureau of Intelligence Research from 1999 to 2003. "They may have unity in wanting to get rid of him, but they cannot agree on anything else, and this includes simple tactics."
Amid this political maneuvering, the lawyers and pro-democracy activists who have been on the front lines of popular protests in Pakistan are increasingly finding themselves pushed to the sidelines of what's shaping up as a raw contest for power among politicians who share few of their democratic ideals. These idealistic activists remain vigorously opposed to any election until the Supreme Court judges ousted by Mr. Musharraf are reinstated.
"The judges have been stabbed in the back," said Sajjad Ali Shah, Pakistan's Supreme Court Chief Justice in the 1990s. "The politicians are aiming for one and only thing: a share of power, even if it means sharing it with the army.
"Every leader of a political party thinks of their personal interest, not the interest of the institutions or the country. They don't want the supremacy of the constitution or the rule of the law."
Similar feelings pervade the small but vocal demonstrations by lawyers and pro-democracy activists that still occur almost daily in Islamabad and other major cities.
"We are angry and disappointed," said High Court Advocate Riasat Ali Azad as he paused between shouting "Boycott!" and "Go, Musharraf, go!" at a recent demonstration. "It is unfair. We started this action, but now the political parties want to get the fruits of it and to increase their vote bank. The parties should stay with the lawyers, with the judiciary, with the civil society, instead of rushing to elections."
There are complicated calculations, both political and personal, behind the opposition parties' approach. Ms. Bhutto's return to Pakistan from self-imposed exile, for example, was facilitated in October by Mr. Musharraf's National Reconciliation Ordinance, a widely criticized piece of legislation that dropped pending corruption charges that relate to her period as prime minister in the 1990s. The ordinance did not grant similar amnesty to Mr. Sharif, who also is accused of corruption. A truly independent judiciary may not agree with this ordinance, reopening the charges against Ms. Bhutto.
Mr. Sharif, for his part, is an unlikely paladin of judicial freedom, considering he had sent his own party's thugs to the Supreme Court building in 1997, ousting the then-chief justice. The former premier is expected to try to make a last-ditch appeal for Ms. Bhutto's cooperation when they meet in Islamabad today in an attempt to work out a joint strategy.
"Musharraf has lost his political and moral credibility," said Khurshid Ahmad, director of the Institute of Policy Studies in Islamabad and an Islamist senator who supports the boycott. "If Benazir Bhutto would share power with him, she'll lose ultimately; the choice is hers between a short-term gain or a long-term benefit."
Any election boycott, however, is fraught with unpredictable consequences, as it would test the opposition's ability to rally supporters onto the streets and the army's continued backing of Mr. Musharraf. Despite promises of displays of people power, none of the opposition parties managed to organize a massive protest after the state of emergency was imposed. Mr. Musharraf, meanwhile, has declared that the elections will happen on Jan. 8 "come hell or high water," adding that he will deal decisively with anyone who tries to subvert the voting by force.
This means that despite all the talk of vote boycotts, the transition so far appears likely to proceed according to Mr. Musharraf's scenario.
"If you're not going to participate in the election, you've got to try to bring down the whole system," Mr. Weinbaum said. "There is nothing in between. Many people don't have the stomach for this."