Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Los Angeles Times
January 6, 2008
Pg. 1
The Pakistani leader was in a precarious position even before Bhutto's death, and he has taken steps to shore up his position.
By Laura King, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
RAWALPINDI, PAKISTAN — Candles flicker, petals scatter and bouquets slowly wilt at the spot where Benazir Bhutto was slain. Although some passers-by still break down in tears at the sight of this makeshift shrine, the pressing question for many Pakistanis as the outpouring of grief over her assassination subsides is whether President Pervez Musharraf will manage to survive this crisis, as he has so many others.
In the first days after the Dec. 27 attack, the already unpopular Musharraf's grip on power seemed to hang in the balance. Riots raged for three days in Karachi, Bhutto's hometown, and across her home province of Sindh.
Much of the fury over the killing of the former prime minister and one of the most popular politicians in the country's history was aimed directly at one man: the president. In a dozen cities, demonstrators shouted slogans such as "Musharraf, dog!" and "Musharraf, killer!"
But a scant week later, analysts and observers said the Pakistani leader appeared to have weathered the storm, methodically taking a series of steps aimed at shoring up his position, at least in the short term.
He deferred parliamentary elections that his foes still hope will become a referendum against him. He placated Western allies by agreeing to allow Scotland Yard to assist in the investigation of Bhutto's killing.
He remained largely out of sight in the first days after the assassination, then resurfaced to coolly rebuff opposition calls for his resignation and insist that no one in his government bore blame for her death.
Moreover, there were no signs that Pakistan's powerful military in this nuclear-armed country was wavering in its support for the man who was its chief until five weeks ago, when he stepped down under pressure from critics at home and even supporters abroad. At a meeting of corps commanders last week, senior generals did not appear to be seeking to distance themselves from him, at least not yet, longtime observers of the military said.
Still, in the eyes of some, Musharraf's authority appeared frayed as never before.
"There's only so long," said analyst Shaukat Qadir, a retired brigadier, "that you can hang on by the skin of your teeth."
"In the short term, there seems to be no immediate threat to him," said Farzana Shaikh, an analyst at Britain's Chatham House think tank. "In the longer term, I don't see him continuing in office, because he is increasingly regarded by his own allies as a liability."
Much will depend on signals from Washington, Musharraf's chief backer. The Bush administration has generally supported him through months of relentless turmoil, expressing only mild criticism late last year during six weeks of emergency rule, tantamount to martial law.
Putting off until Feb. 18 elections that had been set for this week has given the former general some breathing room. Bhutto's party, now led by her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, acting as regent to their teenage son, wanted the poll held as scheduled, sensing the likelihood of a groundswell of sympathy votes.
But with the Election Commission dominated by his supporters, Musharraf was able to easily deflect that demand. Both the major opposition parties, Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N, backed down from threats to flood the street with angry protesters.
Eye on the election
One important indicator of Musharraf's fortunes in coming weeks will be whether signs emerge that his ruling party is seeking to engage in massive vote-rigging, as Bhutto had alleged before her death.
Before the assassination, many observers expected the vote to yield a parliament not dominated by any one party. Now, for the first time since he seized power in a coup in 1999, Musharraf runs the risk of facing a legislature prepared to defy him.
"If the elections are fair, there is a possibility that the Pakistan People's Party could get a clean sweep," said Adil Najam, a professor of international politics at Boston University.
An assertive parliament, he and others said, could move to reverse measures taken by Musharraf during emergency rule, particularly his dismissal of senior judges and the restrictions placed on broadcast media.
But Musharraf has demonstrated readiness to use harsh, authoritarian measures to hang on to power, as he did during emergency rule, when he jailed more than 5,000 political opponents and suspended the constitution. Even as a civilian president, he retains the ability to fire the prime minister and dissolve parliament.
In addition, Bhutto's death left a leadership void in her party, one of her own making. In life, reluctant to yield the limelight, she had sidelined rivals such as Aitzaz Ahsan, the country's most prominent opposition lawyer, who remains under house arrest at Musharraf's behest, but wields enormous moral authority.
Instead, the party is now co-chaired by Zardari, a divisive figure mistrusted by many over corruption allegations, and her 19-year-old son, Bilawal, who will not be able to run for office until he is 25. The party's likely candidate for prime minister would be Bhutto's deputy, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a soft-spoken pragmatist who many believe might forge some kind of working relationship with Musharraf.
The president insists that his rural power base has been undiminished by his confrontation last year with Pakistan's urban intelligentsia: lawyers, professors, human rights activists and journalists, who were the main target during emergency rule.
When asked at a news conference with foreign journalists last week whether he should resign because he had become so unpopular, Musharraf fired back: "If I agreed with you, I would step down. Your information is wrong. . . . I don't think you have the correct feel of Pakistan."
Calls for his resignation, however, have come not only from opposition parties, but from independent observers who say the country risks a descent into chaos unless Musharraf leaves the scene.
"Stability in Pakistan and its contribution to wider anti-terror efforts now require rapid transition to legitimate civilian government," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group wrote in a report last week. "This must involve the departure of Musharraf, whose continued efforts to retain power at all costs are incompatible with national reconciliation."
If the current wave of public anger against Musharraf fails to subside, the army, now led by his handpicked successor, Gen. Ashfaq Kiani, might take matters into its own hands. Many in the ranks feel that the Pakistani public's traditional respect and even reverence for the armed forces has been tarnished by Musharraf's actions last year, including his removal of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and the imposition of emergency rule.
"Gen. Kiani is very conscious of the wide gulf that exists between the people and the army at the moment, and at some point, he will want to rehabilitate that relationship," said analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.
Musharraf was praised by the Bush administration for relinquishing his post as military chief of staff in late November, for setting an election date and lifting emergency rule in mid-December, and for agreeing last week to accept help from Scotland Yard in investigating Bhutto's slaying.
The investigation
The British team Saturday visited the scene of the attack on Bhutto by a gunman and a suicide bomber. But definitive conclusions about Bhutto's death, which Pakistan has blamed on a Taliban commander, will be hard to establish, particularly before the February vote.
Especially difficult to prove or disprove will be charges by Bhutto's party that officials within Musharraf's government or the security services were complicit in the attack. Although ties between Islamic militants and Pakistan's intelligence services during the 1990s are well documented, those links are far more tangled and murky today.
"Whatever the suspicions against elements in his government, I'm not sure we're going to see a smoking gun here," said a Western diplomat.
Bhutto's party says that at the very least, Musharraf's government bears responsibility for failing to safeguard her security. But even some of the late leader's admirers quietly concede that she acted recklessly by poking her head and shoulders out of her armored SUV's sunroof to wave to the crowd as she left a rally in Rawalpindi, the seat of the Pakistani military.
Musharraf on Saturday acknowledged that Bhutto may have been shot, something the government initially denied, but said she exposed herself to danger and bore responsibility for her death, echoing comments he made last week.
Musharraf made those comments during an interview on the CBS "60 Minutes" program scheduled to air tonight, and said that his government did everything it could to provide security for Bhutto.
"For standing up outside the car, I think it was she to blame alone. Nobody else. Responsibility is hers," Musharraf said.
Some observers believe that Musharraf, if prodded by his generals and the Bush administration, might realize that staying in power has become untenable. If convinced of that, the leader who once proudly billed himself as an enlightened moderate could seek to salvage his legacy.
"If he chose -- if -- we could have an orderly transition to a post-Musharraf era," said Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the executive director of the nonprofit Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency in Islamabad.
"Right now, that is the contribution he could make."
January 6, 2008
Pg. 1
The Pakistani leader was in a precarious position even before Bhutto's death, and he has taken steps to shore up his position.
By Laura King, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
RAWALPINDI, PAKISTAN — Candles flicker, petals scatter and bouquets slowly wilt at the spot where Benazir Bhutto was slain. Although some passers-by still break down in tears at the sight of this makeshift shrine, the pressing question for many Pakistanis as the outpouring of grief over her assassination subsides is whether President Pervez Musharraf will manage to survive this crisis, as he has so many others.
In the first days after the Dec. 27 attack, the already unpopular Musharraf's grip on power seemed to hang in the balance. Riots raged for three days in Karachi, Bhutto's hometown, and across her home province of Sindh.
Much of the fury over the killing of the former prime minister and one of the most popular politicians in the country's history was aimed directly at one man: the president. In a dozen cities, demonstrators shouted slogans such as "Musharraf, dog!" and "Musharraf, killer!"
But a scant week later, analysts and observers said the Pakistani leader appeared to have weathered the storm, methodically taking a series of steps aimed at shoring up his position, at least in the short term.
He deferred parliamentary elections that his foes still hope will become a referendum against him. He placated Western allies by agreeing to allow Scotland Yard to assist in the investigation of Bhutto's killing.
He remained largely out of sight in the first days after the assassination, then resurfaced to coolly rebuff opposition calls for his resignation and insist that no one in his government bore blame for her death.
Moreover, there were no signs that Pakistan's powerful military in this nuclear-armed country was wavering in its support for the man who was its chief until five weeks ago, when he stepped down under pressure from critics at home and even supporters abroad. At a meeting of corps commanders last week, senior generals did not appear to be seeking to distance themselves from him, at least not yet, longtime observers of the military said.
Still, in the eyes of some, Musharraf's authority appeared frayed as never before.
"There's only so long," said analyst Shaukat Qadir, a retired brigadier, "that you can hang on by the skin of your teeth."
"In the short term, there seems to be no immediate threat to him," said Farzana Shaikh, an analyst at Britain's Chatham House think tank. "In the longer term, I don't see him continuing in office, because he is increasingly regarded by his own allies as a liability."
Much will depend on signals from Washington, Musharraf's chief backer. The Bush administration has generally supported him through months of relentless turmoil, expressing only mild criticism late last year during six weeks of emergency rule, tantamount to martial law.
Putting off until Feb. 18 elections that had been set for this week has given the former general some breathing room. Bhutto's party, now led by her husband, Asif Ali Zardari, acting as regent to their teenage son, wanted the poll held as scheduled, sensing the likelihood of a groundswell of sympathy votes.
But with the Election Commission dominated by his supporters, Musharraf was able to easily deflect that demand. Both the major opposition parties, Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party and former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's Pakistan Muslim League-N, backed down from threats to flood the street with angry protesters.
Eye on the election
One important indicator of Musharraf's fortunes in coming weeks will be whether signs emerge that his ruling party is seeking to engage in massive vote-rigging, as Bhutto had alleged before her death.
Before the assassination, many observers expected the vote to yield a parliament not dominated by any one party. Now, for the first time since he seized power in a coup in 1999, Musharraf runs the risk of facing a legislature prepared to defy him.
"If the elections are fair, there is a possibility that the Pakistan People's Party could get a clean sweep," said Adil Najam, a professor of international politics at Boston University.
An assertive parliament, he and others said, could move to reverse measures taken by Musharraf during emergency rule, particularly his dismissal of senior judges and the restrictions placed on broadcast media.
But Musharraf has demonstrated readiness to use harsh, authoritarian measures to hang on to power, as he did during emergency rule, when he jailed more than 5,000 political opponents and suspended the constitution. Even as a civilian president, he retains the ability to fire the prime minister and dissolve parliament.
In addition, Bhutto's death left a leadership void in her party, one of her own making. In life, reluctant to yield the limelight, she had sidelined rivals such as Aitzaz Ahsan, the country's most prominent opposition lawyer, who remains under house arrest at Musharraf's behest, but wields enormous moral authority.
Instead, the party is now co-chaired by Zardari, a divisive figure mistrusted by many over corruption allegations, and her 19-year-old son, Bilawal, who will not be able to run for office until he is 25. The party's likely candidate for prime minister would be Bhutto's deputy, Makhdoom Amin Fahim, a soft-spoken pragmatist who many believe might forge some kind of working relationship with Musharraf.
The president insists that his rural power base has been undiminished by his confrontation last year with Pakistan's urban intelligentsia: lawyers, professors, human rights activists and journalists, who were the main target during emergency rule.
When asked at a news conference with foreign journalists last week whether he should resign because he had become so unpopular, Musharraf fired back: "If I agreed with you, I would step down. Your information is wrong. . . . I don't think you have the correct feel of Pakistan."
Calls for his resignation, however, have come not only from opposition parties, but from independent observers who say the country risks a descent into chaos unless Musharraf leaves the scene.
"Stability in Pakistan and its contribution to wider anti-terror efforts now require rapid transition to legitimate civilian government," the Brussels-based International Crisis Group wrote in a report last week. "This must involve the departure of Musharraf, whose continued efforts to retain power at all costs are incompatible with national reconciliation."
If the current wave of public anger against Musharraf fails to subside, the army, now led by his handpicked successor, Gen. Ashfaq Kiani, might take matters into its own hands. Many in the ranks feel that the Pakistani public's traditional respect and even reverence for the armed forces has been tarnished by Musharraf's actions last year, including his removal of Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry and the imposition of emergency rule.
"Gen. Kiani is very conscious of the wide gulf that exists between the people and the army at the moment, and at some point, he will want to rehabilitate that relationship," said analyst Talat Masood, a retired general.
Musharraf was praised by the Bush administration for relinquishing his post as military chief of staff in late November, for setting an election date and lifting emergency rule in mid-December, and for agreeing last week to accept help from Scotland Yard in investigating Bhutto's slaying.
The investigation
The British team Saturday visited the scene of the attack on Bhutto by a gunman and a suicide bomber. But definitive conclusions about Bhutto's death, which Pakistan has blamed on a Taliban commander, will be hard to establish, particularly before the February vote.
Especially difficult to prove or disprove will be charges by Bhutto's party that officials within Musharraf's government or the security services were complicit in the attack. Although ties between Islamic militants and Pakistan's intelligence services during the 1990s are well documented, those links are far more tangled and murky today.
"Whatever the suspicions against elements in his government, I'm not sure we're going to see a smoking gun here," said a Western diplomat.
Bhutto's party says that at the very least, Musharraf's government bears responsibility for failing to safeguard her security. But even some of the late leader's admirers quietly concede that she acted recklessly by poking her head and shoulders out of her armored SUV's sunroof to wave to the crowd as she left a rally in Rawalpindi, the seat of the Pakistani military.
Musharraf on Saturday acknowledged that Bhutto may have been shot, something the government initially denied, but said she exposed herself to danger and bore responsibility for her death, echoing comments he made last week.
Musharraf made those comments during an interview on the CBS "60 Minutes" program scheduled to air tonight, and said that his government did everything it could to provide security for Bhutto.
"For standing up outside the car, I think it was she to blame alone. Nobody else. Responsibility is hers," Musharraf said.
Some observers believe that Musharraf, if prodded by his generals and the Bush administration, might realize that staying in power has become untenable. If convinced of that, the leader who once proudly billed himself as an enlightened moderate could seek to salvage his legacy.
"If he chose -- if -- we could have an orderly transition to a post-Musharraf era," said Ahmed Bilal Mehboob, the executive director of the nonprofit Pakistan Institute of Legislative Development and Transparency in Islamabad.
"Right now, that is the contribution he could make."