On 23 november ,Wagner ,QMG,said : we are at the end of our possibilities .

Originally Posted by brinktk

I don't understand what point you're trying to make...

Because in post 365,you said at the end : once an outfit drops below 40/ 50 % of their original strength,they are essential combat ineffective .

As the Soviets were not in Berlin,the conclusion is that notwithstanding the winter,the Ostheer did not become combat ineffective ,the Ostheer survived the winter,which is indicating that the effects of the winter were not as harsh as is assumed .

Originally Posted by JOC

Dec 4th? The counter offensive didn't begin until December 5th? I think it's safe to say the Germans were in rough shape at this point be it a combination of weather and supply issues in late Nov - early Dec time frame. However the Germans were still advancing. Even if it was like a punch drunk boxer, right up until the counter offensive.

It is not relevant that the Germans were advancing,because this was not the aim of Typhoon : the aim of Typhoon(as of Barbarossa) was NOT to advance,was NOT to conquer regins/cities,the aim was to eliminate the Red Army,the rest (=the collaps of the Soviet state )would follow automatically.

Originally Posted by JOC

Dec 4th? The counter offensive didn't begin until December 5th? I think it's safe to say the Germans were in rough shape at this point be it a combination of weather and supply issues in late Nov - early Dec time frame. However the Germans were still advancing. Even if it was like a punch drunk boxer, right up until the counter offensive.

To all extents and purposes Typhoon was over. On the evening of 4th December, Centre's formations had more or less shifted to the the defensive, as they were either out of supply or overextended in dangerously exposed conditions. Many divisional/corps commanders in exposed conditions were asking their superiors for permission to withdraw to more defensible positions as there was a real danger of encirclement by Red Army units. Without permission from Kluge, Guderian withdrew XXIV Panzer Korps back from the north of Tula and other army commanders must have been thinking the same. If there was any advance after 4th December, these would have been local counterattacks and would not have had any operational effectiveness whatsoever.

Typhoon was over.
Chance for victory in Russia was over.
Chance for ultimate victory in WW2 for Germany was over.
A true turning point in history.

Originally Posted by lljadw

Because in post 365,you said at the end : once an outfit drops below 40/ 50 % of their original strength,they are essential combat ineffective .

As the Soviets were not in Berlin,the conclusion is that notwithstanding the winter,the Ostheer did not become combat ineffective ,the Ostheer survived the winter,which is indicating that the effects of the winter were not as harsh as is assumed .

The same applies to the enemy too...

The Germans were at the end of their rope. They had to pull back to bring up their combat strength on the front.

You're assuming I meant EVERY formation was at 40-50%...that's not what I was saying.

Besides, usually when formations get to that level, higher headquarters usually start consolidating these spent units and rotating them to refit or mixing units to bring numbers up.

And you've never served have you?

I don't believe the war was lost outside of the gates of Moscow. The USSR won at Moscow for whatever reason “supply issue, possible winter hardships for an unprepared Osteer, Siberian reinforcements, etc.
The Reds were soundly defeated in the following winter offensive which resulted in the taking of hundreds of thousands of more Red army prisoners. In 42 the Osteer advanced hundreds of more miles into the USSR proving their still strong offensive capabilities. Operation Blau was hampered by the back and forthing of Army group A. It is a myth to think the Soviets gave up territory so as to lead the Osteer deeper into a trap. Say purposely stretch the supply lines. All the territory gained in the USSR by Germany was fought for tooth and nail from the Polish border to Stalingrad.The defeat at Stalingrad showed that the Germans could but not necessarily would lose the war. Although admittingly events were turning against them
The German Southern front collapsed during the following Soviet winter offensive of 43. However before the rasputitsa Manstein defeated the Soviets and retook the Kharkov, leaving both sides to ponder the upcoming summer of 43. Fortunately the Germans fell for Zhukov's trap at Kursk from which point the Germans lost the power for taking the initiative again on the eastern front and lost the war. They did have other options at this point and many on OKW felt they should go on the defensive that summer and wait for the Soviet offensive. Hitler grudgingly opted for the Kurst offensive. Also what else can you call for lack of a better word but trap (or they willingly let themselves fall into the Citadel). 9 concentric ring of land mines and anti tank defenses that took > 3 months to construct using 100’s of thousands of workers.
After Kursk virtual nonstop artillery and tank assaults closely followed by infantry tore the outnumbered German army to sheds. After Kursk the Soviets learned to attack on a narrow front and did a good job of not letting the Germans know where to expect the next offensive. This continued from (Orel and Belgorod) to Berlin. However not without some hiccups.
One must remember the forum ask the question “which was the most decisive battle”. Call me simple however studied I may be. This is poll for opinions. I to have read many books, etc. Note: Stalingrad received the most votes, followed by Kursk which is where I believe the war was lost. I also believe lend – lease was a contributor to the Soviet victory.
My 2 cents, I do find others opinions of interest.

The war against the SU was lost in the summer,Typhoon had no chance to succeed,and even in Moscow was captured,the result still would be the Red Flag hanging at the Reichstag .

And,Hitler knew it : in july 1941,he was panicking.
On 25 july 1941 von Bock wrote the following in his diary after a meeting with Keitel :
"The hope of the Führer that Japan will intervene does not seem to perform.Whatever,one can not expect a quick Japanese attack .But for Germany a quick collaps of the SU is necessary,because one can not conquer the SU.And the Führer is anxious and asks :how many time do I have to eliminate the SU,and how many time do I need ."

Questions :

1) Why was Hitler hoping on 25 july on a Japanese intervention ?

2) Why was he anxious ?

Answers :
1)Because on 25 july 1941 his only hope was Japan ;he must have been very desperate.
2)Because on 25 july he knew that he had failed .

Originally Posted by lljadw

The war against the SU was lost in the summer,Typhoon had no chance to succeed,and even in Moscow was captured,the result still would be the Red Flag hanging at the Reichstag .

And,Hitler knew it : in july 1941,he was panicking.
On 25 july 1941 von Bock wrote the following in his diary after a meeting with Keitel :
"The hope of the Führer that Japan will intervene does not seem to perform.Whatever,one can not expect a quick Japanese attack .But for Germany a quick collaps of the SU is necessary,because one can not conquer the SU.And the Führer is anxious and asks :how many time do I have to eliminate the SU,and how many time do I need ."

Questions :

1) Why was Hitler hoping on 25 july on a Japanese intervention ?

2) Why was he anxious ?

Answers :
1)Because on 25 july 1941 his only hope was Japan ;he must have been very desperate.
2)Because on 25 july he knew that he had failed .

I don't buy this. We've already gone over this so I won't repeat the debate here. We both agree that the war was lost in 1941, just not on the details. Maybe that's all that matters.

Originally Posted by brinktk

And you've never served have you?

This is the usual "father knows best argument" : I served,you didn't (which is wrong) ,thus : shut up .

While you can use your military experience in a discussion about today wars, your military experience is irrelevant in a discussion about fighting from 75 years ago .

2 points were discussed :

1) how harsh was the 41/42 winter ? the conclusion is that he was harsh,but not exceptional .

2) what was the influence of this winter on the fighting/on the outcome of the fighting ? the conclusion,based on simple historical facts is that the influence was marginal : the Ostheer survived the winter and the Red Army obtained only limited successes.

Reasons for the German survival are :
a) the winter was not that harsh

b) the German soldiers had winter clothing

BTW : no one said that the winter was not hurting the Germans,but,the spring,summer and autumn also were hurting the Germans .

Originally Posted by lljadw

This is the usual "father knows best argument" : I served,you didn't (which is wrong) ,thus : shut up .

While you can use your military experience in a discussion about today wars, your military experience is irrelevant in a discussion about fighting from 75 years ago .

2 points were discussed :

1) how harsh was the 41/42 winter ? the conclusion is that he was harsh,but not exceptional .

2) what was the influence of this winter on the fighting/on the outcome of the fighting ? the conclusion,based on simple historical facts is that the influence was marginal : the Ostheer survived the winter and the Red Army obtained only limited successes.

Reasons for the German survival are :
a) the winter was not that harsh

b) the German soldiers had winter clothing

BTW : no one said that the winter was not hurting the Germans,but,the spring,summer and autumn also were hurting the Germans .

There's just some things that can't be explained. Being a soldier who has served in an operational environment puts things in context regardless of the time frame. If there is one thing I've learned, it's that things are never what they seem and nothing is black and white. A soldier lives in fear and misery when in combat...that is something that transcends time.

I asked because your responses are very rigid, uncompromising, and black and white, dismissing anyone and everyone who doesn't hold the same ideas you do... as if you're defending a thesis or something...