The Missile Miracle In China




 
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June 21st, 2010  
longriver
 

Topic: The Missile Miracle In China


June 15, 2010: The chatter in China, and military deployments, indicate that the leadership believes they are now able to take Taiwan by force, before the United States can intervene. Such an attack would have to be without warning, because the United States would put forces in the way if there was any indication that an invasion was imminent.

This development comes as no surprise to those who have been watching military and political developments in China and Taiwan during the past two decades. At the end of the Cold War, China had three million troops on active duty, but their weapons, warships and aircraft were largely 1950s technology. They had no ballistic missiles aimed at Taiwan, because the only missiles China had were equipped with nuclear warheads and aimed at Russia. The Chinese navy had miniscule amphibious forces and little confidence that the Chinese air force could attain air superiority over the Taiwan Straits, so that they could get troops across.

Twenty years later, the Taiwanese navy has declined while the Chinese force has expanded and been modernized. The Chinese now have nearly as many modern aircraft as Taiwan, and Chinese pilots are much better trained. Amphibious shipping has been greatly expanded, as have airborne forces and army units trained for amphibious landings.

Perhaps the most important change since 1991 is China's force of precision guided missiles and rockets. China has built many, more accurate and cheaper, short range ballistic missiles. China has created a line of shorter range ballistic and cruise missiles meant for non-nuclear war. China has stationed over 1,200 short range ballistic missiles within range of Taiwan. All of these missiles can be launched in a short period of time, overwhelming Taiwan's small anti-missile defenses, and wrecking airfields, ports and army bases.

China is also replacing older short range ballistic missiles with GPS guided 406mm missiles, carried in self-propelled rocket launchers. The WS-2 system consists of an 8x8 truck mounting six canisters, each holding a 1.3 ton, 406mm WS-2 rocket. The WS-2 has a max range of 200 kilometers. Warheads can be as large as 200 kilograms (440 pounds), for the 70 kilometers range version. At 200 kilometers, the warhead is about half that size. The warheads use cluster bomb munitions. The WS-3 version has GPS guidance, a smaller warhead and a longer range (over 300 kilometers). This enables the missile to hit targets all over Taiwan. While the original WS-2 rocket was unguided, and could land within 600 meters of the aiming point at maximum range. The WS-3, using GPS or inertial navigation, as well as terminal homing guidance, can take out key installations on Taiwan. The WS-2 is similar to the U.S. 610mm, 1.8 ton ATACMS rocket, which has GPS guidance and a range of 300 kilometers. Each ATACMS rocket costs about a million dollars. The WS-2 rocket probably goes for less than $100,000 each, although the WS-3 probably costs several times that.

China also continues developing long range cruise missiles, and adapting them to operate from aircraft. The latest missile to get this treatment is the DH-10. This weapon is similar to early U.S. cruise missiles, and has a range of 1,500-3,000 kilometers and uses GPS, along with terrain mapping. The DH-10 was first shown publicly in the recent 60th anniversary of the communists taking control of China, on October 1st. The aircraft carrier version is called the CJ-10. This is believed to be based on some American cruise missile technology.

China has also developed anti-ship missiles similar to the U.S. Harpoon and French Exocet. But these are only effective on a modern aircraft that can maneuver and are equipped with electronic countermeasures to enable it to get close enough to a well defended target (like a U.S. Navy task force.) China, however, has both old and new aircraft assigned to its naval aviation force.

In two decades, China has developed a military force that can do one job very well; quickly capture Taiwan. In the same two decades, Taiwan has allowed its defenses to wither, betting the United States will protect them, no matter what.


http://www.strategypage.com/htmw/htw.../20100615.aspx
June 21st, 2010  
Shmack
 
 
OK, China's military superiority is indisputable, but i hope they won't consider this as a cause to take over Taiwan by force.
June 21st, 2010  
Partisan
 
 
I think that this is one that the Chinese will keep in their back pocket. It is not the most pressing issue on their agenda and can be used to unify the nation, in case of serious internal strife - a la Argentina & UK (Falklands), or to divert attention from issues at home, most wars.

It is also a nice stick to hold over the heads of the Taiwanese.

At the moment I feel that China is trying to expand its glogal military reach in order to protect the strategic assets that it has and is securing.
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June 21st, 2010  
Wolf
 
 
Quote:
June 15, 2010: The chatter in China, and military deployments, indicate that the leadership believes they are now able to take Taiwan by force, before the United States can intervene. Such an attack would have to be without warning, because the United States would put forces in the way if there was any indication that an invasion was imminent.
Does this mean we are going to intervene? I'm new at this kind of thing... but what kind of implication does it take, exactly?
June 22nd, 2010  
Shmack
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wolf
Does this mean we are going to intervene? I'm new at this kind of thing... but what kind of implication does it take, exactly?
That's a good question by the way. During the last years i've been hearing about the possibility of the US intervention from anywhere except the United States itself. I lean to a view that this speculation is more a political instrument of the Politburo rather then a real possibility.
June 30th, 2010  
TRose
 
Does Anyone know or have an idea how the Chinese Df-21 anti ship ballistic missile would effect US navy Strategy such as how accrurate it might be or if the Navy has any defense against it?
June 30th, 2010  
Shmack
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by TRose
Does Anyone know or have an idea how the Chinese Df-21 anti ship ballistic missile would effect US navy Strategy such as how accrurate it might be or if the Navy has any defense against it?
The DF-21 is not precisely ballistic, but a quasi-ballistic missile. It is absolutely impossible to hit small mobile targets with an unguided missile.
Its project range is about 1800 miles, but of course they don't need THAT far away. That is one of the reasons why its accuracy remains very disputable and unclear. DF-21 was proposed as a weapon against aircraft carriers, but they are always accompanied by an escort which means multiple targets for the missile and at the same time strengthened anti-air defence. I doubt the Chinese would deliver salvo fire with ballistic missiles against one ship. So, in case if missile launch is detected immediatly and all counter-measures (such as active maneuvers) are undertaken on time, the possibility of being hit tends towards zero.
Her (DF-21) main advantage over a cruise anti-ship missile is speed. It makes it harder to shoot it down, but doesn't make it impossible.
July 2nd, 2010  
LeMask
 
Just throwing an idea...

What if they equip these "useless" missiles with useless junk to jam the counter-measures. Like small metal papers to jam radars and such...

Or maybe if they throw plenty of these at their target. As a guided missile will be jammed and that his chances of passing the ECM and counter-measures is ridiculous, maybe that an unguided missile have better chances, as his chances of success are based on the ability of the people firing them.

And to the poster:
Wow? big China is mightier than small Taiwan? Omg, I'm impressed... They better start eating Chinese food right now to get used to it...

Bah... Give Taiwai to China and stop whining...
July 2nd, 2010  
Shmack
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by LeMask
Just throwing an idea...

What if they equip these "useless" missiles with useless junk to jam the counter-measures. Like small metal papers to jam radars and such...

Or maybe if they throw plenty of these at their target. As a guided missile will be jammed and that his chances of passing the ECM and counter-measures is ridiculous, maybe that an unguided missile have better chances, as his chances of success are based on the ability of the people firing them.
Emm.. i think you're mixing it all up.

First of all it is unknown which exact guidance system is used on the final trajectory of DF-21.

Second, if they use radar homing (like the original missile), chaff (small metal papers) can jam their own missiles. If they use TV homing, laser homing or smth else, chaff won't help. But as far as i know China does not have the needed ammount of space satellites for that.

There are only two ways to prevent DF-21 from hitting your ship: active smart manoeuvring and strenghtened anti-air defence armament like RIM-161.
July 2nd, 2010  
LeMask
 
I know that I'm way over my head with this stuff... But I thought that these missiles were unguided ballistic missiles, like missile artillety, big rockets...

If they had enough chaff and flares to jam the automatic counter-measures of a plane carrier, they could eventually hit it with unguided rockets as it's a big target.

That's my idea. But well, I guess he Chinese have much better tactics to deal with carriers.
 


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