Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Atlanta Journal-Constitution
April 14, 2008 By Jay Bookman
Last week's theatrical production in Washington--the ambassador and medal-bedecked general flying in from Baghdad to testify to Congress, President Bush addressing the nation, the candidates for his job pontificating on the course they would set for Iraq as president--created the impression of a great democracy wrestling with weighty decisions.
But beneath the somber pageantry and sometimes confident rhetoric, it was easy to forget that all of us, from the president on down, are really just stumbling through the darkness that is Iraq, trying to feel our way through to an exit that we cannot see and that may not even exist.
One reason for that blindness is our reluctance to take less than a purely American perspective. Most of the decisions that determine Iraq's future will be made not in Washington but in Iraq, and while we cannot hope to see clearly through Iraqi eyes, it can be useful to at least make the effort.
Last month, ABC News, the BBC and other news outlets released the results of a carefully conducted, detailed poll of more than 2,000 Iraqi citizens, all of whom were interviewed in person by fellow Arabic speakers.
Some of the poll results were wildly contradictory, but overall they suggest that real improvement has taken place in Iraq, particularly in the area of security. In a similar poll taken in August, 11 percent of Iraqis believed that security in their country had improved in the previous six months, a figure that rose to 36 percent in the new poll. (The poll was conducted in February, before the recent uptick in violence.)
However, of those who believed security had improved, only 4 percent were willing to attribute that improvement to U.S. forces.
In fact, almost half of Iraqis--46 percent--say security would improve if U.S. forces left Iraq altogether, with only 29 percent saying security would decline if we did so.
Other numbers bolster the prediction that, John McCain's wishes to the contrary, we will not be staying in Iraq another 100 years. According to the poll, 38 percent of Iraqis, and 61 percent of Iraqi Sunnis, want U.S. forces to leave immediately, with another 35 percent calling for our departure as soon as sufficient security is restored. Just 4 percent said they would accept a more permanent U.S. presence.
More starkly, 42 percent of those polled said they believe it is acceptable for Iraqis to attack U.S. forces. While that number is down from the 57 percent figure of August 2007, it is up substantially from 17 percent four years ago. Apparently, extended occupation does not foster friendly feelings.
It's also illuminating to compare Iraqi responses to those of Americans asked similar questions. For example, 46 percent of Iraqis say that security in their village or neighborhood has improved in the last six months, 17 percent say it has declined and 36 percent say it has remained the same.
An NBC poll of Americans taken at approximately the same time reported similar results: 42 percent believed the surge had improved conditions in Iraq, 13 percent said it had made the situation worse and 34 percent said it had no impact.
But the real question in Iraq, as it was last week in Washington, is what comes next. The ultimate goal of the surge was not merely to improve security, but to create an opportunity for political reconciliation in Iraq. Many in the Bush administration claim to see signs that such a reconciliation is occurring, but most Iraqis do not. Only 21 percent said the surge had improved conditions for political dialogue in Iraq, while 43 percent claim it has worsened those conditions.
Most ominously, 54 percent of Iraqis say they would not advise Iraqi exiles to return home, and 36 percent would leave the country themselves if given the chance.
That last number is extraordinary. If more than one out of three Iraqis are ready to abandon their country, the chances of holding things together in the long term seem pretty slim.
Jay Bookman is deputy editorial page editor.
April 14, 2008 By Jay Bookman
Last week's theatrical production in Washington--the ambassador and medal-bedecked general flying in from Baghdad to testify to Congress, President Bush addressing the nation, the candidates for his job pontificating on the course they would set for Iraq as president--created the impression of a great democracy wrestling with weighty decisions.
But beneath the somber pageantry and sometimes confident rhetoric, it was easy to forget that all of us, from the president on down, are really just stumbling through the darkness that is Iraq, trying to feel our way through to an exit that we cannot see and that may not even exist.
One reason for that blindness is our reluctance to take less than a purely American perspective. Most of the decisions that determine Iraq's future will be made not in Washington but in Iraq, and while we cannot hope to see clearly through Iraqi eyes, it can be useful to at least make the effort.
Last month, ABC News, the BBC and other news outlets released the results of a carefully conducted, detailed poll of more than 2,000 Iraqi citizens, all of whom were interviewed in person by fellow Arabic speakers.
Some of the poll results were wildly contradictory, but overall they suggest that real improvement has taken place in Iraq, particularly in the area of security. In a similar poll taken in August, 11 percent of Iraqis believed that security in their country had improved in the previous six months, a figure that rose to 36 percent in the new poll. (The poll was conducted in February, before the recent uptick in violence.)
However, of those who believed security had improved, only 4 percent were willing to attribute that improvement to U.S. forces.
In fact, almost half of Iraqis--46 percent--say security would improve if U.S. forces left Iraq altogether, with only 29 percent saying security would decline if we did so.
Other numbers bolster the prediction that, John McCain's wishes to the contrary, we will not be staying in Iraq another 100 years. According to the poll, 38 percent of Iraqis, and 61 percent of Iraqi Sunnis, want U.S. forces to leave immediately, with another 35 percent calling for our departure as soon as sufficient security is restored. Just 4 percent said they would accept a more permanent U.S. presence.
More starkly, 42 percent of those polled said they believe it is acceptable for Iraqis to attack U.S. forces. While that number is down from the 57 percent figure of August 2007, it is up substantially from 17 percent four years ago. Apparently, extended occupation does not foster friendly feelings.
It's also illuminating to compare Iraqi responses to those of Americans asked similar questions. For example, 46 percent of Iraqis say that security in their village or neighborhood has improved in the last six months, 17 percent say it has declined and 36 percent say it has remained the same.
An NBC poll of Americans taken at approximately the same time reported similar results: 42 percent believed the surge had improved conditions in Iraq, 13 percent said it had made the situation worse and 34 percent said it had no impact.
But the real question in Iraq, as it was last week in Washington, is what comes next. The ultimate goal of the surge was not merely to improve security, but to create an opportunity for political reconciliation in Iraq. Many in the Bush administration claim to see signs that such a reconciliation is occurring, but most Iraqis do not. Only 21 percent said the surge had improved conditions for political dialogue in Iraq, while 43 percent claim it has worsened those conditions.
Most ominously, 54 percent of Iraqis say they would not advise Iraqi exiles to return home, and 36 percent would leave the country themselves if given the chance.
That last number is extraordinary. If more than one out of three Iraqis are ready to abandon their country, the chances of holding things together in the long term seem pretty slim.
Jay Bookman is deputy editorial page editor.