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Army Times
April 21, 2008 Petraeus plan would 'thin' troops in Iraq, but 'reversible' progress worries opponents
By Rick Maze
The top commander in Iraq hopes to recommend as early as this fall plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops below 120,000.
Army Gen. David Petraeus told Military Times editors and reporters that his overall plan is to “thin” the number of troops without necessarily reducing the number of places they are located as part of a steady move toward making Iraq forces take charge of their own security.
The number of U.S. forces in Iraq is expected to fall to about 120,000 at the end of July, with the full return of the 30,000 troops who were rushed to the war zone in early 2007 to quell a spike in insurgent violence. That will begin a 45-day period for evaluation, in which Petraeus and his staff will look for plans to further trim troops.
While not providing specifics, Petraeus said he already has in mind four or five places where troop reductions might be recommended. “We are fairly riveted to some of these locations,” he said.
“The concept is to thin our forces out rather than to hand off,” he said during the April 11 meeting at the Pentagon.
Petraeus said he wanted to “maintain a dispersed footprint” that would retain small outposts of combat troops as well as the larger bases. He said plans do not include establishing many more of the outposts, where troops typically live in harsher conditions than at the sprawling forward operating bases, but would include improving those now existing. “We are certainly going to try to make conditions better, wherever they are.”
The review would include looking at Army and Marine Corps units. Reductions could be in combat units, logistics, supply and civil affairs. “We will determine how we can reduce our presence without jeopardizing our gains,” he said. “At the end of the day, this is about feel. It is not about a mathematical equation.”
A Petraeus aide said the staff has done a lot of planning but will not discuss details because “we don’t want to telegraph our moves.”
Part of thinning the force in Iraq will include using brigade headquarters to coordinate elements such as the provincial reconstruction teams, military transition teams, intelligence and quick-reaction forces in particular areas of operations.
“Brigade headquarters start to become important as you transition from a predominantly combat role to a more focused stability and support role,” Petraeus said. “There’s a whole host of different functions that a brigade headquarters enable that is very useful to have … in a location even if you don’t need the combat elements with it.”
There is now a brigade headquarters in Kut, and another will be sent to Ramadi, he said.
The brigade headquarters is a “relatively small” element, but it keeps commanders plugged in to an area, providing troops with intelligence and situational awareness, Petraeus said.
When discussing plans for covering the same battle space with fewer forces, Petraeus specifically praised the Army’s Stryker brigade combat teams for their ability to cover long distances and go directly into a fight on arrival. He credited this to the Stryker brigade’s robust capabilities with its three infantry battalions, a reconnaissance, surveillance, targeting and acquisition squadron, and a host of sophisticated situational awareness and communications equipment.
Petraeus said the reductions he is contemplating would not be limited to maneuver forces but could lead in time to cuts at Baghdad-based Multi-National Force-Iraq and Multi-National Corps-Iraq.
“We have already got concepts for consolidating certain staff concepts, for example, and over time a longer-term plan — the actual consolidation of those back to one headquarters. That’s a ways out there still,” he said.
MNF-I is the lead U.S. headquarters for all coalition forces and is the main liaison to the government of Iraq and major U.S commands outside Iraq. MNC-I, which is subordinate to the force command, is the headquarters for combatant units in Iraq. Petraeus said there are reasons for two staffs, but the need to have them separate could diminish as U.S. forces decline and as the Iraqis take on more |responsibilities.
Petraeus’ meeting with Military Times editors and reporters came at the end of a busy week where he tried, with mixed success, to sell his recommendations to Congress. His success was mixed mostly because he did not provide specific dates for further troop reductions.
He clearly has the support of President Bush and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who were able to announce a return to 12-month deployments to Iraq beginning Aug. 1 because of the new Iraq manning plan.
“General Petraeus says he’ll need time to consolidate his forces and assess how this reduced American presence will affect conditions on the ground before making measured recommendations on further reductions,” Bush said. “I have told him he’ll have all the time he needs.”
Speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 10, Gates said the proposal has the support of all senior U.S. military leaders.
“A brief pause for consolidation and evaluation following a return to pre-surge troop levels will allow us to analyze the process and its effects in a comprehensive way,” Gates said. “I do not anticipate this period of review to be an extended one.”
When he appeared April 9 before the House Armed Services Committee, Petraeus was asked if the summer assessment might lead to a decision for another “surge” of U.S. forces.
Petraeus called that a “pretty remote thought” — but also said he is reluctant to look too far into the future. “I’ve learned to keep my timelines pretty short when I’m predicting things to do with Iraq,” he said.
Gates also was reluctant to be specific, saying part of the review would look at what impact reduced U.S. troop levels may have on the overall security situation in Iraq.
He said he hopes to further reduce personnel in the fall, “but we must be realistic.”
Progress made since last spring, when the surge force began arriving, “is still fragile and reversible,” Petraeus said.
Asked by lawmakers to grade the current state of Iraq’s security forces, Petraeus said they deserved a B or a B-minus.
He and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker provided lawmakers with a series of charts and graphs showing some of the progress being made, such as a drop in attacks on government structures, reduced sniper fire and roadside bombs and mines, a drop in civilian deaths and a reduction in areas controlled by al-Qaida in Iraq and Sunni insurgents. Crocker reported the Iraqi government is making progress passing some laws aimed at settling sectarian differences and preparing for provincial elections.
But when pressed for details about improvements in the Iraqi economy and quality-of-life issues for the Iraqi people, such as the availability of electricity and other basic services, Petraeus and Crocker were short on specifics.
“What I would be confident in, with the continuation of the security improvements we’ve seen, is that in conditions of better security you are going to see more economy activity,” Crocker said.
For some lawmakers, such limited progress is enough. “The question is: Do we proceed with this proven strategy for success?” posed Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. “I think history would view this Congress as very foolish if we leave now and refuse to embrace the success that we’ve seen.”
Sen. John McCain, ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee and the presumptive Republican candidate for president, added, “Since the middle of last year, sectarian and ethnic violence, civilian deaths and deaths of coalition forces have all fallen dramatically.”
But some Democrats pounced on the word “reversible” — and the vagueness of the definition of success in Iraq — as reason to wonder if there really is any light at the end of the Iraq deployment tunnel just yet.
Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, said he remains concerned about continued strife, such as the recent showdown between Iraqi government forces and militias loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the southern port city of Basra.
Staff writers Gina Cavallaro, Matthew Cox and Michelle Tan contributed to this report.
April 21, 2008 Petraeus plan would 'thin' troops in Iraq, but 'reversible' progress worries opponents
By Rick Maze
The top commander in Iraq hopes to recommend as early as this fall plans to reduce the number of U.S. troops below 120,000.
Army Gen. David Petraeus told Military Times editors and reporters that his overall plan is to “thin” the number of troops without necessarily reducing the number of places they are located as part of a steady move toward making Iraq forces take charge of their own security.
The number of U.S. forces in Iraq is expected to fall to about 120,000 at the end of July, with the full return of the 30,000 troops who were rushed to the war zone in early 2007 to quell a spike in insurgent violence. That will begin a 45-day period for evaluation, in which Petraeus and his staff will look for plans to further trim troops.
While not providing specifics, Petraeus said he already has in mind four or five places where troop reductions might be recommended. “We are fairly riveted to some of these locations,” he said.
“The concept is to thin our forces out rather than to hand off,” he said during the April 11 meeting at the Pentagon.
Petraeus said he wanted to “maintain a dispersed footprint” that would retain small outposts of combat troops as well as the larger bases. He said plans do not include establishing many more of the outposts, where troops typically live in harsher conditions than at the sprawling forward operating bases, but would include improving those now existing. “We are certainly going to try to make conditions better, wherever they are.”
The review would include looking at Army and Marine Corps units. Reductions could be in combat units, logistics, supply and civil affairs. “We will determine how we can reduce our presence without jeopardizing our gains,” he said. “At the end of the day, this is about feel. It is not about a mathematical equation.”
A Petraeus aide said the staff has done a lot of planning but will not discuss details because “we don’t want to telegraph our moves.”
Part of thinning the force in Iraq will include using brigade headquarters to coordinate elements such as the provincial reconstruction teams, military transition teams, intelligence and quick-reaction forces in particular areas of operations.
“Brigade headquarters start to become important as you transition from a predominantly combat role to a more focused stability and support role,” Petraeus said. “There’s a whole host of different functions that a brigade headquarters enable that is very useful to have … in a location even if you don’t need the combat elements with it.”
There is now a brigade headquarters in Kut, and another will be sent to Ramadi, he said.
The brigade headquarters is a “relatively small” element, but it keeps commanders plugged in to an area, providing troops with intelligence and situational awareness, Petraeus said.
When discussing plans for covering the same battle space with fewer forces, Petraeus specifically praised the Army’s Stryker brigade combat teams for their ability to cover long distances and go directly into a fight on arrival. He credited this to the Stryker brigade’s robust capabilities with its three infantry battalions, a reconnaissance, surveillance, targeting and acquisition squadron, and a host of sophisticated situational awareness and communications equipment.
Petraeus said the reductions he is contemplating would not be limited to maneuver forces but could lead in time to cuts at Baghdad-based Multi-National Force-Iraq and Multi-National Corps-Iraq.
“We have already got concepts for consolidating certain staff concepts, for example, and over time a longer-term plan — the actual consolidation of those back to one headquarters. That’s a ways out there still,” he said.
MNF-I is the lead U.S. headquarters for all coalition forces and is the main liaison to the government of Iraq and major U.S commands outside Iraq. MNC-I, which is subordinate to the force command, is the headquarters for combatant units in Iraq. Petraeus said there are reasons for two staffs, but the need to have them separate could diminish as U.S. forces decline and as the Iraqis take on more |responsibilities.
Petraeus’ meeting with Military Times editors and reporters came at the end of a busy week where he tried, with mixed success, to sell his recommendations to Congress. His success was mixed mostly because he did not provide specific dates for further troop reductions.
He clearly has the support of President Bush and Defense Secretary Robert Gates, who were able to announce a return to 12-month deployments to Iraq beginning Aug. 1 because of the new Iraq manning plan.
“General Petraeus says he’ll need time to consolidate his forces and assess how this reduced American presence will affect conditions on the ground before making measured recommendations on further reductions,” Bush said. “I have told him he’ll have all the time he needs.”
Speaking before the Senate Armed Services Committee on April 10, Gates said the proposal has the support of all senior U.S. military leaders.
“A brief pause for consolidation and evaluation following a return to pre-surge troop levels will allow us to analyze the process and its effects in a comprehensive way,” Gates said. “I do not anticipate this period of review to be an extended one.”
When he appeared April 9 before the House Armed Services Committee, Petraeus was asked if the summer assessment might lead to a decision for another “surge” of U.S. forces.
Petraeus called that a “pretty remote thought” — but also said he is reluctant to look too far into the future. “I’ve learned to keep my timelines pretty short when I’m predicting things to do with Iraq,” he said.
Gates also was reluctant to be specific, saying part of the review would look at what impact reduced U.S. troop levels may have on the overall security situation in Iraq.
He said he hopes to further reduce personnel in the fall, “but we must be realistic.”
Progress made since last spring, when the surge force began arriving, “is still fragile and reversible,” Petraeus said.
Asked by lawmakers to grade the current state of Iraq’s security forces, Petraeus said they deserved a B or a B-minus.
He and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker provided lawmakers with a series of charts and graphs showing some of the progress being made, such as a drop in attacks on government structures, reduced sniper fire and roadside bombs and mines, a drop in civilian deaths and a reduction in areas controlled by al-Qaida in Iraq and Sunni insurgents. Crocker reported the Iraqi government is making progress passing some laws aimed at settling sectarian differences and preparing for provincial elections.
But when pressed for details about improvements in the Iraqi economy and quality-of-life issues for the Iraqi people, such as the availability of electricity and other basic services, Petraeus and Crocker were short on specifics.
“What I would be confident in, with the continuation of the security improvements we’ve seen, is that in conditions of better security you are going to see more economy activity,” Crocker said.
For some lawmakers, such limited progress is enough. “The question is: Do we proceed with this proven strategy for success?” posed Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss. “I think history would view this Congress as very foolish if we leave now and refuse to embrace the success that we’ve seen.”
Sen. John McCain, ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee and the presumptive Republican candidate for president, added, “Since the middle of last year, sectarian and ethnic violence, civilian deaths and deaths of coalition forces have all fallen dramatically.”
But some Democrats pounced on the word “reversible” — and the vagueness of the definition of success in Iraq — as reason to wonder if there really is any light at the end of the Iraq deployment tunnel just yet.
Rep. Silvestre Reyes, D-Texas, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee and a senior member of the House Armed Services Committee, said he remains concerned about continued strife, such as the recent showdown between Iraqi government forces and militias loyal to cleric Muqtada al-Sadr in the southern port city of Basra.
Staff writers Gina Cavallaro, Matthew Cox and Michelle Tan contributed to this report.