Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
U.S. News & World Report
December 25, 2006
The big stakes--and bubbling tensions--over who will control Iraq's oil capital
By Anna Mulrine
KIRKUK, IRAQ--There are signs throughout this oil-rich city that after a decades-long diaspora, the Kurds are returning. In Kurdish neighborhoods, new homes are going up left and right, and graffiti classifieds on the walls near busy thoroughfares advertise scarce real estate for those who can afford it; those who can't squat in bombed-out military bases and office buildings. The soccer stadium is a makeshift camp filled with hundreds of Kurdish refugees who are, as described by U.S. military officials, "in a holding pattern."
What, exactly, they're waiting for is at the heart of a high-stakes tug of war that is ratcheting up tensions in advance of a 2007 referendum here--a constitutionally mandated vote that will determine whether or not Kirkuk becomes part of the Kurdish regional government to the north. The prize is a diverse land that is big money for the rest of the country: Kirkuk's oil fields are the largest and potentially most productive in the country, accounting for close to half of Iraq's oil exports and roughly 6 percent of all Mideast oil reserves. It is a vote that many expect will be a flashpoint, with plenty of jockeying for position among Kirkuk's rival political parties and ethnic groups. "We'll have to be on our guard," Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, tells U.S. News. "Tension will certainly be high."
"Second fiddle." That tension was evident here last week, when some 2,000 Kurds marched through the city to protest recommendations from the Iraq Study Group that the referendum be postponed. "Given the very dangerous situation in Kirkuk," the report reads, "a referendum on the future of Kirkuk ... would be explosive and should be delayed." The Kurds were not pleased, and Kurdish regional government head Massoud Barzani, long a U.S. ally, became the first Iraqi official to come out against the study, warning that any delay in the vote would lead to "grave consequences." Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, issued a statement backing Barzani. It was a development closely watched by U.S. officials largely because, in the words of one American official, "the Kurds have the power to bring down the government."
Forced to flee the land in a brutal campaign of "Arabization" launched by Saddam Hussein in the 1970s, Kurds here are adamant that the region around Kirkuk is their birthright. But opposition party critics charge that Arabs and Turkmens are being forced out of the region in what they characterize as a campaign of Kurdish intimidation. "The situation is getting worse," Rakan Saaid, an Arab provincial council member in Kirkuk, tells U.S. News. "We have seen random raids, property damage, and detainees--picked up for no reason-moved to northern jails." Arabs and Turkmens also protest that new Kurdish arrivals here--many of whom, they say, have no previous ties to Kirkuk--are being lured in large part by funds doled out by Kurdish political parties to ensure that they have the votes they need to win the referendum.
Indeed, many Arabs drawn here 30 years ago by promises of new lives and stable jobs say that they do not want to leave--particularly when that means relocating to more violent regions in Iraq. "My kids were born here," says one Arab shop owner in a mixed neighborhood downtown. "I want to stay." Simply and politely--but repeatedly--Kurds insist that Arabs living in homes that once belonged to Kurds really don't have a choice. Some 7,000 Arab families--which U.S. officials say amounts to roughly 50,000 people--have already expressed a willingness to pack up and go, Kurdish spokesmen point out. "The Arabs have to realize that they got their privileges on the backs of the Kurdish people," says Kirkuk's Provincial Council Chairman Rizgar Ali Hamajan. "How would you feel if you go back to your country, and someone from Canada is living in your house?" American officials worry that more heated conflicts over homes could erupt in the coming months. Asks Col. Patrick Stackpole, commander of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 25th Infantry Division in Kirkuk: "What is this tension going to look like when people decide not to go? We solve that on a case-by-case basis. It's concerning, of course."]
For these reasons, U.S. military officials are keeping an increasingly close eye on Kirkuk. "How long can the rest of the country continue to play second fiddle to Baghdad?" asks one senior U.S. official in the embattled Iraqi capital. "There are some big cities up there [in northern Iraq], and you can't keep on ignoring them forever."
Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, who last week took the reins as the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq--was responsible for Kirkuk on a previous tour. "We've got to pay close attention to it," he tells U.S. News. "It's got the oil, and it's always been very representative of Iraq itself." U.S. military officials here agree, and add a note of caution. "This place is a powder keg," says one.
"Pretty not good." In the office of Kirkuk Province Gov. Abdul Rahman Mustafa, among the more prominently displayed objects is a painting, just to the left of his desk. It is an abstract portrait of a mother lying on the ground, cradling her baby. Both are dead. It is a ubiquitous item in Kurdish party offices here, a reminder of the slaughter that Kurds suffered at the hands of Saddam Hussein-a stark warning that they plan never to let it happen again.
Today, Mustafa describes the security situation here as "not too bad, but pretty not good." He has survived multiple assassination attempts, most recently when a suicide bomber wearing an explosives-laden vest threw himself on the hood of his car--the work, he believes, of Syrian-backed insurgents. It is one of many assassination attempts that this city sees each month. The soccer stadium, filled with Kurdish refugees, has been hit by mortars repeatedly, and car bombs are a daily fear among U.S. soldiers patrolling the city streets.
What's more, there are indications as well that members of the Mahdi Army militia--known as the Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM)--have been moving into town to back the city's Shiite Arab communities. "We're very sensitive to JAM presence here," says Colonel Stackpole. Shiites, who make up the majority in the oil-rich southern part of Iraq, tend to have less opposition to federal control of regions than the Sunnis, who stand to be largely disenfranchised with their populations centered in the west, with no oil resources. "For the most part, they [Mahdi Army] are coming to reassure [Shiite Arabs] that they are going to be protected, that JAM is going to look out for their interests," he adds. "It's a toe in the water to make sure the population they represent up here isn't being mistreated, and no more than that. It hasn't been a concern for me yet."
What is a concern among Iraqi and some U.S. military officials here is the lack of speed with which the central government in Baghdad--led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki--is making decisions that would allow Kirkuk to move forward on its referendum vote, a decision wrapped up in a clause of the Constitution known as Article 140.
December 25, 2006
The big stakes--and bubbling tensions--over who will control Iraq's oil capital
By Anna Mulrine
KIRKUK, IRAQ--There are signs throughout this oil-rich city that after a decades-long diaspora, the Kurds are returning. In Kurdish neighborhoods, new homes are going up left and right, and graffiti classifieds on the walls near busy thoroughfares advertise scarce real estate for those who can afford it; those who can't squat in bombed-out military bases and office buildings. The soccer stadium is a makeshift camp filled with hundreds of Kurdish refugees who are, as described by U.S. military officials, "in a holding pattern."
What, exactly, they're waiting for is at the heart of a high-stakes tug of war that is ratcheting up tensions in advance of a 2007 referendum here--a constitutionally mandated vote that will determine whether or not Kirkuk becomes part of the Kurdish regional government to the north. The prize is a diverse land that is big money for the rest of the country: Kirkuk's oil fields are the largest and potentially most productive in the country, accounting for close to half of Iraq's oil exports and roughly 6 percent of all Mideast oil reserves. It is a vote that many expect will be a flashpoint, with plenty of jockeying for position among Kirkuk's rival political parties and ethnic groups. "We'll have to be on our guard," Maj. Gen. Benjamin Mixon, commander of U.S. forces in northern Iraq, tells U.S. News. "Tension will certainly be high."
"Second fiddle." That tension was evident here last week, when some 2,000 Kurds marched through the city to protest recommendations from the Iraq Study Group that the referendum be postponed. "Given the very dangerous situation in Kirkuk," the report reads, "a referendum on the future of Kirkuk ... would be explosive and should be delayed." The Kurds were not pleased, and Kurdish regional government head Massoud Barzani, long a U.S. ally, became the first Iraqi official to come out against the study, warning that any delay in the vote would lead to "grave consequences." Iraqi President Jalal Talabani, a Kurd, issued a statement backing Barzani. It was a development closely watched by U.S. officials largely because, in the words of one American official, "the Kurds have the power to bring down the government."
Forced to flee the land in a brutal campaign of "Arabization" launched by Saddam Hussein in the 1970s, Kurds here are adamant that the region around Kirkuk is their birthright. But opposition party critics charge that Arabs and Turkmens are being forced out of the region in what they characterize as a campaign of Kurdish intimidation. "The situation is getting worse," Rakan Saaid, an Arab provincial council member in Kirkuk, tells U.S. News. "We have seen random raids, property damage, and detainees--picked up for no reason-moved to northern jails." Arabs and Turkmens also protest that new Kurdish arrivals here--many of whom, they say, have no previous ties to Kirkuk--are being lured in large part by funds doled out by Kurdish political parties to ensure that they have the votes they need to win the referendum.
Indeed, many Arabs drawn here 30 years ago by promises of new lives and stable jobs say that they do not want to leave--particularly when that means relocating to more violent regions in Iraq. "My kids were born here," says one Arab shop owner in a mixed neighborhood downtown. "I want to stay." Simply and politely--but repeatedly--Kurds insist that Arabs living in homes that once belonged to Kurds really don't have a choice. Some 7,000 Arab families--which U.S. officials say amounts to roughly 50,000 people--have already expressed a willingness to pack up and go, Kurdish spokesmen point out. "The Arabs have to realize that they got their privileges on the backs of the Kurdish people," says Kirkuk's Provincial Council Chairman Rizgar Ali Hamajan. "How would you feel if you go back to your country, and someone from Canada is living in your house?" American officials worry that more heated conflicts over homes could erupt in the coming months. Asks Col. Patrick Stackpole, commander of the 3rd Brigade Combat Team of the 25th Infantry Division in Kirkuk: "What is this tension going to look like when people decide not to go? We solve that on a case-by-case basis. It's concerning, of course."]
For these reasons, U.S. military officials are keeping an increasingly close eye on Kirkuk. "How long can the rest of the country continue to play second fiddle to Baghdad?" asks one senior U.S. official in the embattled Iraqi capital. "There are some big cities up there [in northern Iraq], and you can't keep on ignoring them forever."
Lt. Gen. Raymond Odierno, who last week took the reins as the No. 2 U.S. commander in Iraq--was responsible for Kirkuk on a previous tour. "We've got to pay close attention to it," he tells U.S. News. "It's got the oil, and it's always been very representative of Iraq itself." U.S. military officials here agree, and add a note of caution. "This place is a powder keg," says one.
"Pretty not good." In the office of Kirkuk Province Gov. Abdul Rahman Mustafa, among the more prominently displayed objects is a painting, just to the left of his desk. It is an abstract portrait of a mother lying on the ground, cradling her baby. Both are dead. It is a ubiquitous item in Kurdish party offices here, a reminder of the slaughter that Kurds suffered at the hands of Saddam Hussein-a stark warning that they plan never to let it happen again.
Today, Mustafa describes the security situation here as "not too bad, but pretty not good." He has survived multiple assassination attempts, most recently when a suicide bomber wearing an explosives-laden vest threw himself on the hood of his car--the work, he believes, of Syrian-backed insurgents. It is one of many assassination attempts that this city sees each month. The soccer stadium, filled with Kurdish refugees, has been hit by mortars repeatedly, and car bombs are a daily fear among U.S. soldiers patrolling the city streets.
What's more, there are indications as well that members of the Mahdi Army militia--known as the Jaish al-Mahdi (JAM)--have been moving into town to back the city's Shiite Arab communities. "We're very sensitive to JAM presence here," says Colonel Stackpole. Shiites, who make up the majority in the oil-rich southern part of Iraq, tend to have less opposition to federal control of regions than the Sunnis, who stand to be largely disenfranchised with their populations centered in the west, with no oil resources. "For the most part, they [Mahdi Army] are coming to reassure [Shiite Arabs] that they are going to be protected, that JAM is going to look out for their interests," he adds. "It's a toe in the water to make sure the population they represent up here isn't being mistreated, and no more than that. It hasn't been a concern for me yet."
What is a concern among Iraqi and some U.S. military officials here is the lack of speed with which the central government in Baghdad--led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki--is making decisions that would allow Kirkuk to move forward on its referendum vote, a decision wrapped up in a clause of the Constitution known as Article 140.