Korean artillery exchange rises tensions

Both China and Russia would stay out of this (except maybe some secret funding). They would risk economically as their economics depend on exports to the West, they would lose diplomatic power as they would lose face, and they would lose political power as there may be internal divisions about protests against supporting NK.
 
As for the Chinese, it's not just about North Korea, it's about regional dominance as well. They want the region to be untenable for the United States so they can be the de facto power in the North East Asia region. Their maritime territorial claims are pretty ridiculous and they violate not only North Korean, but South Korean waters as well.
Despite all their image making, anyone who knows the area will know that ultimately the Chinese want to be the top dog in Asia in place of the United States. They see it as a part of fulfilling their destiny and returning to the glory of the past.
As for Russia, South Korea is a much more important trade partner than the North. Odds are they will stay out of it, but if they must support one side, they will probably support South Korea.
Getting sold out by the United States in favor of China is a concern among South Koreans as well.
 
The thing with China is this, it has specialised into being an exporter of cheap crap and from that it makes billions if not trillions a year primarily from the West can it afford to lose that in another Korean conflict defending North Korea whose combined value is about $6 in rubble and empty coke bottles.

If China loses its economic base it then has to start spending more of what it has keeping its people in line which weakens it militarily.

In my opinion the only one with anything to lose here on a grand scale is China and as such if they were given an ultimatum to reign in Kim Mentally Il and his family or it will be done for them I suspect they would toe the line, right now they rattle the saber but when it comes down to it I think they know whose hand is feeding them.
 
I'm also curious as to who, if anyone, the Russians would support. As we all know, they were one of the North's biggest supporters back in the Korean War. but with such a different political climate, would they support the South now, or stick with the North, or even just stay out of the whole thing all together?

We can't go against China, because we are in SCO together, and have too much business together in lumber, oil/gas/nat. resources, and military technology. And we have to stay united against Japan on island disputes. Russia, I think, will go where China will go, and vise versa. Though God knows we are fed up with Kim Jong's crap. Three years ago he almost nuked our biggest Pacific city, Vladivostok, by mistake. A missile of his that he was testing toward Japan went off course, fell on Vladik outskirts. Did not explode, thankfully. We are talking a city of 600,000 people here. North Korean ambassador, they say, almost had a heart attack running to the Kremlin in the middle of the night. Putin, still President then, was seconds away from ordering the missile forces to nuke Pyongyoung in retaliation. And the ambassador barely made it, he was held up at the Kreamlin main gate, by security, who did not know he was, nor spoke Korean or understood his version of Korussian LMAO Exciting life...

In Vladivostok, btw, there is a big community of North Korean refugees. Many of their young men are quite militant, prepared, if Russia declares war on NK, to go along with Russian military and kick some ass there and hang Kim Jong by the balls.
 
In Vladivostok, btw, there is a big community of North Korean refugees. Many of their young men are quite militant, prepared, if Russia declares war on NK, to go along with Russian military and kick some ass there and hang Kim Jong by the balls.

No one hates North Korea more than those people.
North Korea's biggest sympathizers are... SOUTH KOREANS!
 
In Vladivostok, btw, there is a big community of North Korean refugees. Many of their young men are quite militant, prepared, if Russia declares war on NK, to go along with Russian military and kick some ass there and hang Kim Jong by the balls.
Guess there will be no parade if he returns to the place of his birth. :D
 
Just a couple of points I would like to stick in this here thread:

  • North Korea are as communist as the Nazis were "socialists". What North Korea is really is a "Kim-God-Worship-Dictatorship" Nation. And all relevant textbooks should be updated with this term.

  • China definately doesn't want a war between North and South Korea. China wants to maintain the status quo of the last few years which ensures their political and economic dominion of the region. However, if both North and South Korea go to war, then China will be powerless to stop it. And there is too much at stake for China to side with North Korea. China might be an awesomely powerful military power, but supporting the wrong side (eg: North Korea) would be a absolutely total economic disaster for them (as well as creating total third world war). Think about it.
If there is a war between North and South Korea, after the Americans and the Australians join forces and the war continues to esculate (with South Korea being pummelled and smashed, but still holding on), only then will the Russians join in to support South Korea. At this point China is still stand-of-ish and being very critical on the sidelines. But, sooner or later, global diplomatic pressure would bare down on China to support the South Korean Alliance ("you're either with us or you're against us"), because it is not enough to have South Korea, America,Russia, Australia (with a smattering of English, New Zealanders and other nations), especially with Afghanistan on the side. Sooner or later, China would have to pitch in with the South Korean alliance to end the conflict and finish off North Korea in a surgically decisive manner. And China would just hate it, especially with all the North Korean refugees pouring into their territory needing to be fed and clothed, etc.

The main reason why China would eventually have to support the South Korean Alliance is to trade off their regional political power in order to maintain their regional economic power. And the sooner the war comes to a decisive end the sooner China can get rid of all those refugees....

I guess this is all speculation. We'll have to wait and see.
 
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For North Korea it is hard to imagine a more successful course of events. It struck at its southern rival with impunity and, as a bonus, provoked potentially lasting tensions in the military alliance arrayed against it. The North also wants to avoid all-out war, so Pyongyang is not without its disincentives in terms of provoking Seoul. Note that North Korea’s actions have been limited to disputed areas and of a nature that would be difficult to interpret as a prelude to a larger, broader military assault (one to which the South Korean military would be forced to respond). Instead Pyongyang appears to be calling attention to the disputed maritime border, at least in part a bid to emphasize the need for a peace treaty or some similar settlement that would resolve the disadvantageous status quo in the sea and give Pyongyang the assurances of non-aggression from the United States that it desires.

Yet Pyongyang enjoys a significant trump card — the legions of hardened conventional artillery positions within range of downtown Seoul and able to rain down sustained fire upon the South Korean capital, home to about 46 percent of the country’s population and source of about 24 percent of its gross domestic product. Though North Korea’s notoriously irrational behavior is actually deliberate, carefully cultivated and purposeful Seoul is still an enormous thing to gamble with, and South Korea — and the United States, for that matter — can hardly be faulted for not wanting to gamble it on military reprisals in response to what amount to (admittedly lethal) shenanigans in outlying disputed areas.

The problem that has emerged for the United States and its allies is that “red lines” exist only if they are enforced, and both Iran and North Korea have become expert at pushing and stretching them as they see fit. Though (despite rhetoric and appearances) Pyongyang absolutely wants to avoid war, especially during the transition of power, it has now established considerable room to maneuver and push aggressively against its southern rival.

So, what exactly is Pyongyang pushing for? What does it seek to achieve through the exertion of this pressure? Is it still within the realm of its behavior throughout most of the past decade, in which provocations were intended to give it the upper hand in international negotiations, or is it now asking for something more? The North Korean regime has been extraordinarily deliberate and calculating, and one would think it remains so. But is this ability to calculate weakening as a result of the internal strains of the power transition, or other unseen factors? Finally, what is Pyongyang ultimately aiming at as it takes advantage of South Korea’s inability to respond?
 
Good point of view, Seehund. Yesterday, I was sure there was going to be a full scale war. Today, I am doubtful. As MontyB said, it is all a load of 'saber rattling'.
 
China 'would allow unified Korea'

Senior Chinese officials believe the Korean peninsula should be reunified under Seoul's control, according to leaked classified US diplomatic cables.

I wonder if this was kept under wraps to avoid isolating NK even more? You know what they say about a cornered animal.
 
Sssssshhhhhhhhhhh.....

That is the sound of steam coming out of my ears as I watch the news about Wikileaks!!! I am strongly opposed to all this Wikileaking (theres a new verb for you). It is not democratic. No one is plotting behind anybodies back (mostly). An important part of diplomacy is to be able to speak frankly 'off the record', of which are most probably personal opinions and not an 'official position' of any particular government. Wikileaked cables get taken out of context by the media, etc, etc. Hilary Clinton knows what I am getting at here.

Having let of my steam ... it is a fascinating report nevertheless. I sense that China is most embarrassed by North Korea and their 'Kim God Worship Dictatorship'. And the comment that North Korea is acting like a spoiled child sort of has a ring of truth about it. Doesn't it?
 
The claim was made by a senior South Korean official during lunch with the US ambassador. Similar predictions were made before the demise of Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il's father. Is a very "South Korean" view of the policy debate in Beijing. So it may not be an accurate reflection of Beijing's current thinking.
 
Yeonpyeong Attack 'Aimed to Bolster Kim Jong-un'

http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/12/01/2010120100496.html

Son of Kim-God Dictator, Kim Jong-un, must've been playing with his artillery toys.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11887236

Heck, Maybe I'm not so wrong after all...or maybe
Won Sei-hoon, director of South Korea's National Intelligence Service, and I are both wrong. Then again, it is hard to tell either way: North Korea is very much a "loose cannon" :lol:.
 
The head honchos in the chinese PLA has been making some noise about doing their own "peace keeping" operation against North Korea. I think their just looking for action to test out their new military in a real battle. I guess you can say their own little "Desert Storm".
 
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