Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
USA Today
October 20, 2008
Pg. 6
Tensions build as provincial elections near
By Charles Levinson and Ali A. Nabhan, USA Today
MUHANAWIYA, Iraq — As members of the al-Fatla tribe finished their Ramadan feast this month and the last rays of sun melted into the surrounding rice paddies, the quiet of their village was ruptured by the screeching tires of police trucks.
The officers who jumped out "had their fingers on their triggers and were pointing machine guns at our heads," the tribe's leader, Sheik Nabil Sagban, says. "It was terrifying."
The tribe believes the raid was part of a power struggle between two Shiite parties before January's provincial elections, which could significantly redraw Iraq's political map — or set off a new wave of violence.
For millions of Iraqis, loyalty lies first with the tribe, and an endorsement by an influential tribal sheik can make or break a candidate's campaign. That makes tribes such as Sagban's, which has allied itself with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, the latest pawn in the campaign.
Here in Qadisiyah province, 150 miles south of Baghdad, the upcoming elections for local government councils pit two pillars of the Shiite ruling coalition: al-Maliki's Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq, or ISCI.
The Dawa Party, emboldened by al-Maliki's success restoring security to parts of Iraq, is looking to wrest control of local governments away from ISCI, which has failed to provide drinkable water, electricity and other basic services.
That growing rivalry threatens to disrupt a delicate alliance that has held Iraq's central government together for the past three years. And it is partly to blame for the ongoing delays in the U.S.-Iraqi security agreement.
Now, the two Shiite parties are teetering on the brink of violent confrontation.
"The competition between Dawa and ISCI is getting hotter and hotter, and we are the latest target," Sagban says. "God willing, it won't turn violent."
If it does turn bloody, the consequences for Iraq could be catastrophic, warns Robert Kerr, an adviser to the U.S. military on Shiite politics.
Kerr, a Middle East history professor at the University of Central Oklahoma who is now based in Iraq, says the rivalry could divide Iraq's ruling coalition by pitting Shiite against Shiite and tribe against cleric. Most troublesome perhaps, he says, it could split Iraq's army, which is loyal to al-Maliki, against local police largely controlled by ISCI.
"It would undo, almost overnight, the progress Iraqis have made since the last elections," Kerr says. "It would open the door for a resurgence of violent conflict throughout the country."
On the other hand, if the two former allies compete peacefully for power and the losers accept defeat, that would indicate "democracy in Iraq is growing stronger" Kerr says. "But that's a big if."
Unlike Iraq's first two elections in 2005, this vote will include incumbents who will have to surrender power if they lose. Whether that transfer of power happens peacefully will be a key barometer for U.S. military commanders trying to determine how many U.S. soldiers need to stay in Iraq.
"I would be uncomfortable saying we had met our objectives until after I see the Iraqi elections take place and what happens in the immediate aftermath," says Maj. Gen. Michael Oates, commander of U.S. forces in most of southern Iraq.
Though campaigning has only just begun, assassinations, targeted car bombings and other election-related violence are already on the rise, Oates says, though it's not clear whether it is tied to the Dawa-ISCI rivalry or other election opponents.
Those tensions were on display last week outside al-Fatla's tribal headquarters in this farming village. More than 100 sheiks gathered to protest against the local government after the raid.
The sheiks say the raid was triggered by the tribe's decision weeks earlier to join an initiative by al-Maliki to form Iraq's Shiite tribes into 200 tribal councils that answer directly to the prime minister and receive millions of dollars each month.
Al-Maliki gave each council $21,000 to start up plus $10,000 a month to hand to needy Iraqis, says Sagban, who was named head of a tribal council.
"These support councils are electoral propaganda for al-Maliki and his party," says Hassan al-Zamili, the senior ISCI leader here in Qadisiyah province. "We totally reject them."
The raid on the al-Fatla tribe ended without arrests or anyone being harmed, but it does increase tensions before the provincial elections.
"These raids are an intentional provocation, an attempt to provoke a violent response from one of the tribes that will give the local government an excuse to attack us," Sagban says. "Before we formed the support councils, these raids never happened."
October 20, 2008
Pg. 6
Tensions build as provincial elections near
By Charles Levinson and Ali A. Nabhan, USA Today
MUHANAWIYA, Iraq — As members of the al-Fatla tribe finished their Ramadan feast this month and the last rays of sun melted into the surrounding rice paddies, the quiet of their village was ruptured by the screeching tires of police trucks.
The officers who jumped out "had their fingers on their triggers and were pointing machine guns at our heads," the tribe's leader, Sheik Nabil Sagban, says. "It was terrifying."
The tribe believes the raid was part of a power struggle between two Shiite parties before January's provincial elections, which could significantly redraw Iraq's political map — or set off a new wave of violence.
For millions of Iraqis, loyalty lies first with the tribe, and an endorsement by an influential tribal sheik can make or break a candidate's campaign. That makes tribes such as Sagban's, which has allied itself with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's Dawa Party, the latest pawn in the campaign.
Here in Qadisiyah province, 150 miles south of Baghdad, the upcoming elections for local government councils pit two pillars of the Shiite ruling coalition: al-Maliki's Dawa Party and the Islamic Supreme Council in Iraq, or ISCI.
The Dawa Party, emboldened by al-Maliki's success restoring security to parts of Iraq, is looking to wrest control of local governments away from ISCI, which has failed to provide drinkable water, electricity and other basic services.
That growing rivalry threatens to disrupt a delicate alliance that has held Iraq's central government together for the past three years. And it is partly to blame for the ongoing delays in the U.S.-Iraqi security agreement.
Now, the two Shiite parties are teetering on the brink of violent confrontation.
"The competition between Dawa and ISCI is getting hotter and hotter, and we are the latest target," Sagban says. "God willing, it won't turn violent."
If it does turn bloody, the consequences for Iraq could be catastrophic, warns Robert Kerr, an adviser to the U.S. military on Shiite politics.
Kerr, a Middle East history professor at the University of Central Oklahoma who is now based in Iraq, says the rivalry could divide Iraq's ruling coalition by pitting Shiite against Shiite and tribe against cleric. Most troublesome perhaps, he says, it could split Iraq's army, which is loyal to al-Maliki, against local police largely controlled by ISCI.
"It would undo, almost overnight, the progress Iraqis have made since the last elections," Kerr says. "It would open the door for a resurgence of violent conflict throughout the country."
On the other hand, if the two former allies compete peacefully for power and the losers accept defeat, that would indicate "democracy in Iraq is growing stronger" Kerr says. "But that's a big if."
Unlike Iraq's first two elections in 2005, this vote will include incumbents who will have to surrender power if they lose. Whether that transfer of power happens peacefully will be a key barometer for U.S. military commanders trying to determine how many U.S. soldiers need to stay in Iraq.
"I would be uncomfortable saying we had met our objectives until after I see the Iraqi elections take place and what happens in the immediate aftermath," says Maj. Gen. Michael Oates, commander of U.S. forces in most of southern Iraq.
Though campaigning has only just begun, assassinations, targeted car bombings and other election-related violence are already on the rise, Oates says, though it's not clear whether it is tied to the Dawa-ISCI rivalry or other election opponents.
Those tensions were on display last week outside al-Fatla's tribal headquarters in this farming village. More than 100 sheiks gathered to protest against the local government after the raid.
The sheiks say the raid was triggered by the tribe's decision weeks earlier to join an initiative by al-Maliki to form Iraq's Shiite tribes into 200 tribal councils that answer directly to the prime minister and receive millions of dollars each month.
Al-Maliki gave each council $21,000 to start up plus $10,000 a month to hand to needy Iraqis, says Sagban, who was named head of a tribal council.
"These support councils are electoral propaganda for al-Maliki and his party," says Hassan al-Zamili, the senior ISCI leader here in Qadisiyah province. "We totally reject them."
The raid on the al-Fatla tribe ended without arrests or anyone being harmed, but it does increase tensions before the provincial elections.
"These raids are an intentional provocation, an attempt to provoke a violent response from one of the tribes that will give the local government an excuse to attack us," Sagban says. "Before we formed the support councils, these raids never happened."