Iraqi Civil War?

CIkari17

Active member
How likely/unlikely do you think it is that the current situation in Iraq will escalate into a civil war, and what would be some of the determining factors either way?
 
I don't think it is as likely as CBS would let you think (They are convinced Iraq has been fighting a civil war since 1995) however the possibility is there.

All in all, things cool down before a true, flow blown civil war breaks out.
 
The liberal media always portrays the situation in Iraq as being worse than it really is. Although it may be as bad as they say it is, I really doubt it. Then again, i've been "brainwashed" by Rush.
 
Setback said:
The liberal media always portrays the situation in Iraq as being worse than it really is. Although it may be as bad as they say it is, I really doubt it. Then again, i've been "brainwashed" by Rush.

That's right, and you're going to let me keep this $5 bill I just pulled out of your pocket. Aren't you, my gentle snowflake?
 
Civil war definition includes the loss of central government power over the army and branch of governments and heavy clashes between sects of a country over gaining power

I dont see this in Iraq
 
phoenix80 said:
I dont see this in Iraq
Quite right. I'd be more concerned if the Sunnis weren't the minority, but that is not the case, and they have their fair share of power in the current government so it is not like they (the upstanding, law abiding Sunnis) are without a voice. The foreign fighters within the insurgent ranks are dragging this conflict on, and once the Iraqi govt steps up and cracks down on foreign infiltration, the situation will get a whole lot better, quicker. The way to do that: turn the domestic insurgents against the foreign fighters. It won't be easy.
 
some of y'all sound like crazy conspiracy throrists.

of course there WILL be a civil war in Iraq but it will most likely happen when the bulk of american forces leave so that the insurgents have a little more room to move around.
 
Folks,

There are those that say that the US news media and others are potraying what is happening in Iraq as worst than it really is.

FACT: The US Coast Guard yearly budget is 6$ Billion dollars. DoD has funded $3.3 Billion dollars for research in defeating IEDs.

I personally think they are sugar coating the situation in Iraq today.

Jack E. Hammond
 
jackehammond said:
There are those that say that the US news media and others are potraying what is happening in Iraq as worst than it really is.

I can tell you without a doubt that this is true. I make this comment with a few deployments there under my belt. Now, when we flip the coin over, I can also tell you that it isn't as great as the other side is saying.

Take that, find somewhere in the middle, and that's about how things are.

FACT: The US Coast Guard yearly budget is 6$ Billion dollars. DoD has funded $3.3 Billion dollars for research in defeating IEDs.

I personally think they are sugar coating the situation in Iraq today

A lot of the problems we have with IEDs could be countered by simply changing our TTPs. R&D is good, but common sense is better.
 
what are TTP's?

IED's are the main killer of americans in Iraq. They keep changing the way they use them also, I think it will be like hacking where one side counters the other, the other side will eventually counter that and so on.
 
Vietnow said:
what are TTP's?

IED's are the main killer of americans in Iraq. They keep changing the way they use them also, I think it will be like hacking where one side counters the other, the other side will eventually counter that and so on.

Tactics, techniques and procedures.

The thing about the IEDs is we give them the opportunity by how we now conduct our patrols. Look at the casualty numbers by IEDs prior to stuffing guys into loud, lumbering, uparmored vehicles day in and day out along the same routes. They were a lot lower.

Until we get back to basics, the numbers aren't going to go down.
 
Dear Members,

The problem with IEDs is that there is a lot of raw material for them (artillery shells especially). The Chief of Staff for the US Army, Shinseki, warned GWB and Rumsfeld that they needed a lot more boots on the ground for the occupation and he basically got canned for telling the Emperor that he had no clothes. And they ignored him and instead of like most insurgent movements who have to bring in war material from the outside or attack the enemy to obtain material they have enough to do them for a 100 years.

I know a Lt who was with a US Army National Guard unit that was sent to Tal Afar. He stated that when he arrived they had the city under control but a month later forces in the city got cut by 80% and all hell broke loose. He raided on farm where they found an underground room with TENS OF THOUSANDS of mines and artillery shells (ie the 152mm HE is the shell of choice).

Jack E. Hammond

PS> I am glad that one question about the 2003 invasion got answered. When the invasion was about to take place I told a bunch in the US military I would blow ever damn bridge in the country immediately and dig a bunch of holes in the roads and put hunks of iron in the bottom of some and a mine in one out of ten holes. Never happened. Never could understand it. the US Army and Marines didn't either ((ie they brought a ton of bridging gear with them and had crossing sites pre reconned). Seems that Saddam was more worried about a Shiaa revolt and wanted the bridges so he could move armored forces to put down any Shiaa rebellion. Saddam basically cut his own throat. Sort of like one British general in WW2 saying he was against killing Hitler if they could because Hitler was their best friend with his interference with the Germany Army plans.
 
jackehammond said:
Dear Members,

The problem with IEDs is that there is a lot of raw material for them (artillery shells especially). The Chief of Staff for the US Army, Shinseki, warned GWB and Rumsfeld that they needed a lot more boots on the ground for the occupation and he basically got canned for telling the Emperor that he had no clothes. And they ignored him and instead of like most insurgent movements who have to bring in war material from the outside or attack the enemy to obtain material they have enough to do them for a 100 years.

I know a Lt who was with a US Army National Guard unit that was sent to Tal Afar. He stated that when he arrived they had the city under control but a month later forces in the city got cut by 80% and all hell broke loose. He raided on farm where they found an underground room with TENS OF THOUSANDS of mines and artillery shells (ie the 152mm HE is the shell of choice).

We never would have controlled all of the ordnance in that country, regardless of the numbers. There is too much in too many less than obvious places. They still have to bring quite a bit of materials in, just not as much ordnance.

Looking back at the "shoulda, choulda, woulda" doesn't solve anything except for lessons learned that will be forgotten by the next war. We have the abilities to counter the IEDs, we were doing it before media pressured the politicians, and by that we allowed the politicians to decide our tactics. We've got conventional heads trying to run an unconventional war and that's not gonna work, you have to think outside of the box.

About Shinseki, was right on the numbers for the start of the war, but you can't throw a ton of conventional solutions at an unconventional problem, eventually it comes down to how you're running MOOTW and COIN. He wasted so many resources, time and money by his previous bad decisions, I don't think anyone was sad to see him go, though.
 
If the government is too weak to control its domestic environment, I think it is near the civil war status.
 
Main Entry: in·sur·gen·cy
Pronunciation: -j&n(t)-sE
Function: noun
Inflected Form(s): plural -cies
1 : the quality or state of being insurgent; specifically : a condition of revolt against a government that is less than an organized revolution and that is not recognized as belligerency
Main Entry: bel·lig·er·en·cy
Pronunciation: -r&n(t)-sE
Function: noun
1 : the state of being at war or in conflict; specifically : the status of a legally recognized belligerent state or nation
Main Entry: civil war
Function: noun
: a war between opposing groups of citizens of the same country
Main Entry: 1war
Pronunciation: 'wor
Function: noun
Usage: often attributive
Etymology: Middle English werre, from Old North French, of Germanic origin; akin to Old High German werra strife; akin to Old High German werran to confuse
1 a (1) : a state of usually open and declared armed hostile conflict between states or nations (2) : a period of such armed conflict
Main Entry: state of war
1 a : a state of actual armed hostilities regardless of a formal declaration of war b : a legal state created and ended by official declaration regardless of actual armed hostilities and usually characterized by operation of the rules of war
2 : the period of time during which a state of war is in effect
Going to the source as to the meaning of these terms (www.m-w.com) and reading them... :roll:... I would have to come to the logical conclusion that Iraq is in the middle of a civil war. There is open hostilities and it exists between people of the same country.
 
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PJ24 said:
We never would have controlled all of the ordnance in that country, regardless of the numbers. There is too much in too many less than obvious places. They still have to bring quite a bit of materials in, just not as much ordnance.

Looking back at the "shoulda, choulda, woulda" doesn't solve anything except for lessons learned that will be forgotten by the next war. We have the abilities to counter the IEDs, we were doing it before media pressured the politicians, and by that we allowed the politicians to decide our tactics. We've got conventional heads trying to run an unconventional war and that's not gonna work, you have to think outside of the box.

About Shinseki, was right on the numbers for the start of the war, but you can't throw a ton of conventional solutions at an unconventional problem, eventually it comes down to how you're running MOOTW and COIN. He wasted so many resources, time and money by his previous bad decisions, I don't think anyone was sad to see him go, though.
Dear Member,

Sorry, disagree. Even some Iraqi have stated as such. As to countering IEDs your own commanders have stated they are ahead of the curve. And the unconventional outside the conventional is an answer given to say "We don't know." One is Tal Afar. One "reporter" warned the US Army if they did not stop stepping on toes and learn the culture they would never win. The new US Army commander who took over the Tal Afar region made it clear to his men that mistreating detainees was killing US soldiers and stopped it. He also made his officers start reading about the culture, history and people (ie something nonmilitary warned the US military about before the invasion). Now he has Tal Afar under control. And NO COIN or war against an insurgent has been won with the "less is more" tactic. And you just can't haul off and hide 152mm shells that easy in vast numbers.

You won't do it. But read about World War One. Your answer is very familiar to the answers that were given when at last some started to question the British and French generals (British Army commander General Haig in particular) about chewing barbwire for a few yards. And how did Shinseki waste resources? He agreed with the VP Cheney when he was Secretary of Defense under Bush's father that it would be dangerous to take the nation below 14 US Army divisions after the collapse of the USSR. And after 9/11 Bush had a mandate easily to increase the US Army from 10 to 14 divisions or even adding another battalion to every combat brigade. He was a loyal soldier. He did stab Rumsfeld or Bush in the back. He only stated his honest opinion when forced to under oath in Congress. And even when he was stabbed in the back by Rumsfeld he never wrote a "I told you so." letter to the editor or leaked any information even when offered good money by book publishers to.

Finally, in almost every interview (ie they have been ordered not to now) every brigade commander has stated they need more boots on the ground. And these are not arm chair generals either. And if you agree the numbers of US forces in Iraq are being determined by the commanders on the ground and not the politicians in the White House I give up...

Jack E. Hammond

PS> The way a lot of the US troops (ie especially the enlisted) are rallying to Bush and Rumsfeld's defense reminds a lot of General George McClellan in the American Civil War. They almost all damned Lincoln when Lincoln at last had enough and first demanded an explanation why with his outnumbering Lee three to one he would not give battle and then when he did at Sharpsburg, Maryland almost was defeated by Lee and had a draw with 23,000 killed and wounded in one day and called it a victory. Lincoln fired him at last. The soldiers gave replies like yours about politicians and the press interfering. After the Civil War ended and they got to see the records they were shocked to learn that McClellan has used their loyality for his own ends. James Webb a famous Vietnam War Marine combat veteran and author and US Secretary of Navy under Bush senior stated there will be a lot of disappointed soldiers and marines the same years down the road.
 
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