Iraq War's Cost Escalates, Leading Economist Warns

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Forum Spin Doctor
Los Angeles Times
February 29, 2008 Ga.'s share of lingering toll could reach $144.1 billion
By Bob Deans, Cox Washington Bureau
Washington--The Iraq war will cost Americans between $3 trillion and $5 trillion, including military spending, broader economic costs and decades of benefits and medical care for combat veterans, a Nobel prize-winning economist told the Joint Economic Committee on Thursday.
For Georgians, that translates into between $86.5 billion and $144.1 billion, based on the state's current share of national tax payments, according to calculations by the National Priorities Project, a research organization based in Northampton, Mass., that examines local impacts of the federal budget.
The upper end of the estimate is nearly double what the same economist, Joseph Stiglitz, projected just two years ago. He attributed the dramatic increase to the continuing intensity of the war, which began five years ago next month, and the likelihood that operations there could continue for at least another year.
The war's gravest toll has been paid in blood. Fighting in Iraq has so far taken the lives of 3,973 U.S. troops and left nearly 29,300 wounded. Its staggering expense, however, has already dwarfed the 2003 White House war estimate of $60 billion, and the price continues to rise.
"America is a rich country," said Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and former World Bank chief economist.
"The question is not whether we can afford to squander $3 trillion or $5 trillion," he told committee members. "We can. But our strength will be sapped. ... There is no such thing as a free war."
Taxpayers already have spent $607 billion to pay for the war through next September, according to the staff of the Joint Economic Committee, made up of Republicans and Democrats from both houses of Congress.
The true cost to date, though, is $1.3 trillion, the committee's staff estimates, when taking into account the costs of caring for wounded soldiers, replacing equipment lost or destroyed, the economic impact of disrupted oil markets and lost work time for reservists and other expenses.
In a report published last November, the committee estimated that the war would cost Americans between $3.5 trillion and $4.5 trillion by 2017.
Stiglitz reached a similar conclusion. Besides the direct budget costs for fighting the war, he estimated that health care and disability aid for returning veterans would amount to at least $630 billion over several decades, and most likely more than that.
"Many of the injuries are horrific and will require a lifetime of care," Stiglitz said.
He conservatively estimates that the war--by disrupting the oil rich Persian Gulf--has raised oil prices by about $10 a barrel, a hike that is already costing Americans nearly $250 million a day.
Since the federal government has been running budget deficits since before the war began, Stiglitz estimates that the government has borrowed $1 trillion--much of it from overseas lenders--to finance the war. By 2017, he said, the country will have added $2 trillion to the national debt to cover Iraq war expenses. That means additional interest payments for taxpayers.
"American families will be footing the bill ... for a long, long time after President Bush returns to Texas to clear brush full time," said Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D-Texas).
Sen. Sam Brownback (R-Kan.) disputed Stiglitz's findings, saying they were based on "very controversial and highly debatable" assumptions.
"Security has some value to it, and the lack of security has a cost associated with it," said Brownback. "We're just not putting any value on security and on keeping on offense."
 
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