Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Wall Street Journal
March 27, 2008
Pg. 4
Shiite Cease-Fire, Sunni Help Frayed; Surge Winds Down
By Yochi J. Dreazen and Gina Chon
WASHINGTON -- This week's spike in violence in Baghdad and the southern Iraqi city of Basra raises the prospect that the factors that suppressed Iraq's bloodshed in recent months could be evaporating simultaneously.
That is sowing quiet concern among officials here and in Iraq. An increase in fighting would effectively rule out the chances of additional large-scale U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq this year.
U.S. and Iraqi officials have credited Iraq's recent security gains to three distinct but related trends: the "surge" of 30,000 additional U.S. combat forces, the willingness of Sunni tribal fighters to turn against religious extremists, and a cease-fire by firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
But the surge troops have begun leaving Iraq and will be back in the U.S. by July. Many of the Sunni fighters -- known as "concerned local citizens, or CLCs, in military parlance -- are threatening to resume attacking Iraqi targets if they aren't given government jobs (please see related article on page A10). And Mr. Sadr's militants have been battling Iraqi forces in recent days and talking darkly about escalating the violence if no armistice is reached.
"If the two wheels fall off -- the CLCs turn back into insurgents and the Sadr cease-fire starts to fray -- you're likely to see a huge uptick in the violence," said Colin Kahl, a security-studies professor at Georgetown University. "All three of the factors holding down the violence are unwinding at the same time, which is a pretty big deal."
The new round of fighting began earlier this week when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, ordered his security forces to take control of Basra away from the Shiite militias that have effectively ruled the city -- and its lucrative oil fields and ports -- for several years.
As part of the offensive, approximately 15,000 Iraqi soldiers, police officers and paramilitary security personnel have been battling fighters from Mr. Sadr's well-armed militia, the Mahdi Army. The violence began in Basra but has since spread to Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad, leaving at least 55 people dead and hundreds more wounded.
The fighting is beginning to ensnare the U.S. The heavily fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad came under sustained rocket attack Wednesday for the third time this week, and three American citizens were seriously injured. One American already has died of wounds sustained in the mortar attacks, which U.S. officials blame on Shiite militants who receive arms and training from Iran.
Pentagon officials said that they were heartened Iraqi forces were taking the lead in the battle against Mr. Sadr and his forces, and that it was too soon to conclude that Iraq's violence was likely to escalate again.
"I do not think at this stage ... that anyone is prepared to stand here and tell you that they feel as though the gains we've made over the past several months are in jeopardy," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Wednesday.
The U.S. military is in a delicate position when it comes to the fighting between the Mahdi Army and the Iraqi security forces. It is desperate to keep Mr. Sadr from formally abandoning his cease-fire -- which he extended last month -- and resuming his on-again, off-again clashes with the U.S. Hundreds of American soldiers and Marines have been killed fighting Mr. Sadr's forces since 2003.
American military spokesmen say that the operations in Basra and Baghdad are directed at rogue elements that are disobeying Mr. Sadr's cease-fire, not at Mr. Sadr and the more loyal members of his militia, known in Arabic as the Jaish al-Mahdi.
The U.S. also has endorsed the Iraqi government's contention that the assault is primarily meant to oust the criminal gangs responsible for smuggling, kidnapping and other illicit activities throughout Basra.
"Enforcement of the rule of law in Basra is not a battle against Jaish Al-Mahdi," Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner, a military spokesman, said Wednesday. "It is the government of Iraq taking responsible action necessary to deal with criminals on the streets with weapons."
Mr. Sadr has said little since the assaults began, but his followers increasingly are claiming that they are being unfairly singled out by the Maliki government.
Nassar al-Rubaie, who heads Mr. Sadr's bloc in Iraq's parliament, said that many groups engage in criminal behavior in the Basra area, which makes it disingenuous for the Baghdad government to focus only on Sadr-aligned groups.
Mr. Rubaie said rival Shiite political parties -- the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Dawa Party -- engineered the raids in Basra to prevent Mr. Sadr's followers from being able to mount an effective campaign in the provincial elections that are supposed to take place by Oct. 1.
Also stirring concern: Sunni tribal fighters may reconsider their willingness to ally themselves with the U.S. The U.S. military currently is paying the salaries of the roughly 80,000 Sunnis who have signed on to battle Islamic extremists and function as armed neighborhood-watch organizations in their villages.
U.S. commanders want those fighters to be subsumed into the Iraqi security forces later this year, but Baghdad has been slow to actually put many of the Sunnis on the government payroll. As of March 1, only 11,000 of the Sunni fighters had been incorporated into the government forces, and some Sunni leaders accuse the Shiite-led central government of bias against them.
Iraqi Army Lt. Col. Ali Jafar Muhi Hassani, a Shiite who also was part of the Iraqi Army during the Saddam Hussein regime and is now based in the Fallujah area, said the Iraqi central government was being too slow in giving the Sunni fighters government security jobs. "Those who want to join the Iraqi government forces are finding it hard to make the switch," he said.
March 27, 2008
Pg. 4
Shiite Cease-Fire, Sunni Help Frayed; Surge Winds Down
By Yochi J. Dreazen and Gina Chon
WASHINGTON -- This week's spike in violence in Baghdad and the southern Iraqi city of Basra raises the prospect that the factors that suppressed Iraq's bloodshed in recent months could be evaporating simultaneously.
That is sowing quiet concern among officials here and in Iraq. An increase in fighting would effectively rule out the chances of additional large-scale U.S. troop withdrawals from Iraq this year.
U.S. and Iraqi officials have credited Iraq's recent security gains to three distinct but related trends: the "surge" of 30,000 additional U.S. combat forces, the willingness of Sunni tribal fighters to turn against religious extremists, and a cease-fire by firebrand Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr.
But the surge troops have begun leaving Iraq and will be back in the U.S. by July. Many of the Sunni fighters -- known as "concerned local citizens, or CLCs, in military parlance -- are threatening to resume attacking Iraqi targets if they aren't given government jobs (please see related article on page A10). And Mr. Sadr's militants have been battling Iraqi forces in recent days and talking darkly about escalating the violence if no armistice is reached.
"If the two wheels fall off -- the CLCs turn back into insurgents and the Sadr cease-fire starts to fray -- you're likely to see a huge uptick in the violence," said Colin Kahl, a security-studies professor at Georgetown University. "All three of the factors holding down the violence are unwinding at the same time, which is a pretty big deal."
The new round of fighting began earlier this week when Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, a Shiite, ordered his security forces to take control of Basra away from the Shiite militias that have effectively ruled the city -- and its lucrative oil fields and ports -- for several years.
As part of the offensive, approximately 15,000 Iraqi soldiers, police officers and paramilitary security personnel have been battling fighters from Mr. Sadr's well-armed militia, the Mahdi Army. The violence began in Basra but has since spread to Shiite neighborhoods in Baghdad, leaving at least 55 people dead and hundreds more wounded.
The fighting is beginning to ensnare the U.S. The heavily fortified Green Zone in central Baghdad came under sustained rocket attack Wednesday for the third time this week, and three American citizens were seriously injured. One American already has died of wounds sustained in the mortar attacks, which U.S. officials blame on Shiite militants who receive arms and training from Iran.
Pentagon officials said that they were heartened Iraqi forces were taking the lead in the battle against Mr. Sadr and his forces, and that it was too soon to conclude that Iraq's violence was likely to escalate again.
"I do not think at this stage ... that anyone is prepared to stand here and tell you that they feel as though the gains we've made over the past several months are in jeopardy," Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said Wednesday.
The U.S. military is in a delicate position when it comes to the fighting between the Mahdi Army and the Iraqi security forces. It is desperate to keep Mr. Sadr from formally abandoning his cease-fire -- which he extended last month -- and resuming his on-again, off-again clashes with the U.S. Hundreds of American soldiers and Marines have been killed fighting Mr. Sadr's forces since 2003.
American military spokesmen say that the operations in Basra and Baghdad are directed at rogue elements that are disobeying Mr. Sadr's cease-fire, not at Mr. Sadr and the more loyal members of his militia, known in Arabic as the Jaish al-Mahdi.
The U.S. also has endorsed the Iraqi government's contention that the assault is primarily meant to oust the criminal gangs responsible for smuggling, kidnapping and other illicit activities throughout Basra.
"Enforcement of the rule of law in Basra is not a battle against Jaish Al-Mahdi," Maj. Gen. Kevin Bergner, a military spokesman, said Wednesday. "It is the government of Iraq taking responsible action necessary to deal with criminals on the streets with weapons."
Mr. Sadr has said little since the assaults began, but his followers increasingly are claiming that they are being unfairly singled out by the Maliki government.
Nassar al-Rubaie, who heads Mr. Sadr's bloc in Iraq's parliament, said that many groups engage in criminal behavior in the Basra area, which makes it disingenuous for the Baghdad government to focus only on Sadr-aligned groups.
Mr. Rubaie said rival Shiite political parties -- the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the Dawa Party -- engineered the raids in Basra to prevent Mr. Sadr's followers from being able to mount an effective campaign in the provincial elections that are supposed to take place by Oct. 1.
Also stirring concern: Sunni tribal fighters may reconsider their willingness to ally themselves with the U.S. The U.S. military currently is paying the salaries of the roughly 80,000 Sunnis who have signed on to battle Islamic extremists and function as armed neighborhood-watch organizations in their villages.
U.S. commanders want those fighters to be subsumed into the Iraqi security forces later this year, but Baghdad has been slow to actually put many of the Sunnis on the government payroll. As of March 1, only 11,000 of the Sunni fighters had been incorporated into the government forces, and some Sunni leaders accuse the Shiite-led central government of bias against them.
Iraqi Army Lt. Col. Ali Jafar Muhi Hassani, a Shiite who also was part of the Iraqi Army during the Saddam Hussein regime and is now based in the Fallujah area, said the Iraqi central government was being too slow in giving the Sunni fighters government security jobs. "Those who want to join the Iraqi government forces are finding it hard to make the switch," he said.