Iraq---The Crossroad Of Destiny




 
--
Boots
 
October 7th, 2005  
gladius
 

Topic: Iraq---The Crossroad Of Destiny


Iraq---the crossroad of destiny

I don't know what most of you think about the War in Iraq, whether you support it or not. What's more important is... , what does it mean for us down the road? Most of you probably think is somekind of war, political situation, quagmire, another opportunity to bash Bush, you may support it or not, regardless of your position on it. Whatever you think or are thinking about the present situation you may want to reassess.

Most of you reading this probably don't even know what is actually at stake here, maybe you think you do, but do you really? Some of you may think there is not much at stake except the democracy and stability of one country half-way around the world, the lives of soldiers, the stability of the region, or what have you. Depends on who you are, this maybe a little or alot, but what if I were to tell you that the stakes are way more than a little or a lot, in fact way-way more.

What is at stake here is more than most of you can ever imagine. It is something totally beyond what we see. What is at stake here, is believe it or not---EVERYTHING.

Some of you may be skeptical about this right now, if you read on a little bit more I will explain fully, about what I mean when I say EVERYTHING. When I do say EVERYTHING, what I am talking about is--- the fate of the world, a world war, hundreds of millions if not a billion people dying, which is basically everything, or at least almost everything. What I am saying, is the events in Iraq now will absolutely decide the future. So before you dismiss this please read on, it may prove informative.

The reason Iraq is so important is this:

The Rift

After about a couple of years of studying Islam (the Koran, aspects of the religion, Islamic prophecies, writtings, ect) the situation points to the fact that there is a rift in the Islamic world. This is not hard to see for anyone who is willing to take the time to study situation.This rift or divide is between the Moderate Muslims, and the Fundamentalist or more radical Muslims.

The moderates are composed of Muslims (approx 20%, I think less) who interpret the Koran subjectively (meaning as guidelines rather than word for word), they are absolutely opposed the to terrorist activities in the name of Islam, and they believe in coming to peaceful terms with Israel. They want a more open form of Islam, one capable of joining the modern world.

The Fundamentalist or more radical Muslims (approx 20%, maybe more), interpret the Koran quite literally, and have a very narrow view of the world. The Fundamentalist are very, very sympathetic to the terrorist, and they absolutely hate the Jews, or anything to do with Israel. Also these are the type of Muslims responsible for setting up schools known as Madrassas, which are shcools that teach no particular skills except extremist Islam, more akin to the Taliban. There are thousands of these schools all over the Islamic world right now. These are the one who want a very strict and enforced form of Islam, one not capable of coexisting in modern society.

The rest of the Muslims (the other 60%) interpret the Koran somewhat literally. Which means, although they do not completely agree with the more radical Fundamentalist, they do lean towards their point of view.

So what does this have to do with everything? I'll get to the point, not only to make this read alot shorter, but so you can absorb the information alot easier.

The Effect Of Belief

Most all Muslims (especially the radical ones) believe in a set of prophecies that will in their minds be fulfilled sometime in the near future. They are waiting and praying for this to happen and are more than willing to sacrifice their lives in order to fulfill their part in seeing that it comes to pass. This to them is their vision of the future, and no other future can be except this one. A set of beliefs that is waiting to happen given the right set of circumstances, which if allowed to happen will not only impact the region, but the entire world.

They believe that someday a great leader guided by Allah (called the Mahdi) will unite them all regardless of sect, then form a Caliphate (Muslim empire). After this empire is formed he will then proceed to wage war against the world (a war in which they believe they will win) in order to subjugate it under Islam. The first target is Europe, after which the rest of the world follow suit and convert, or be converted to Islam by force if necessary.

The forming of a united Muslim empire into one superpower is the goal of every Muslim fundamentalist radical (including Al Qeuda) they will stop at nothing including the sacrifice of their lives to see this happen. As can be seen even now as some captured Al queda members in Afghanistan admitted to following Bin Laden because they believed he was the chosen Mahdi, not nesceseraly because they set out to become terrorist. For now majority of Muslims did not buy the fact that Bin Laden is the actual Mahdi, but still this gives you a picture of the strong belief in the anticipation of these prophecies.
(Some of you reading already know this from what I have written before. For those than don't more detailed info can be found on this thread The rising of an Empire and the future invasion of Europe!)

As mentioned this is part of Islamic prophetic beliefs. Whether you personally believe it or not it does not matter. What matters is that they believe it. Belief is the first part in putting something in action. Thats why it doesn't matter that you don't believe it, someone else does, and there are over a billion of them. Most people in the Western world do not know this information, they make up all kinds of reasoning trying to figure out answers, when a very big part of it (probably the biggest) is as simple what I showed you just now.

Now that you have read this information some of you may still be wondering what does this all adds up to?, ...well here it is.

The Crossroad Of Destiny

Like I explained there is a rift in the Muslim world. The tug of war is between the Moderate Muslims and Radical Muslims for control of influence to their way of thinking over the majority of the Muslim populace. Right now the balance has shifted to the more fundamental radical side of Islam, and is continuing to shift that way as we speak, unless of course something is done to stop it. And in case you are wondering, the war in Iraq did not cause this shift, nor did American policies, as some would lead you to believe. This was caused mainly in part by those radical fundamentalist in the Islamic world who see Western and Jewish influence in Muslim society as evil, and those that would like to see Islamic dominance of non-Islamic cultures. The only acceptable way of life for them is strict accordance with Shaira law, anything that gets in the way of this must be brought under subjugation or be destroyed. This has been going on for a long time now, way before the war in Iraq. And it is also something that would happen despite American or Western policies (if its not America it would have been someone else). With radicals villainizing the West as opposed to the moderates being the more welcoming side.

Whichever side ends up controlling the majority of influence in the Muslim world will decide what events of the future will be. This may take sometime to settle out anywhere between 5 to 20 years or so. As I outlined, this has to do with the prophecy they believe in. Its fulfillment in their eyes will come to a head as to which side holds more sway as far as their influence goes. Once the events or person this concerns (the Mahdi the one they believe to be guided by Allah) appears, whether he is real, or only claims to be, whoever holds influence will set the ball rolling in favor of their desired outcome.

If the Moderates hold sway, knowing the fulfillment of these prophecies can only lead to war, they will most likely challenge anyone claiming to the Mahdi. Whether by force, or simply by media, information, and edicts. With the the majority of moderate Muslim Imams and scholars issuing fatwas and information campaigns saying he is not for real, any support for him may slowly die. As was the case in Saudi Arabia when someone who claimed to be the Mahdi appeared some 20 or 30 years ago, this is the best case scenario. If by chance he still is able garner enough support with a small amount of the population or even a small number of countries still under Fundamentalist influence, the moderate majority may still be able to use military force against him and keep any fighting isolated within their sphere, and not spill out and cause a much larger conflict. Effectively putting a stop to it before it gets out of hand.

If however the Fundamentalist Radicals hold a majority sway, then it will be a different story entirely. Once they hold the cards, whoever shows up in the future claiming to be the Mahdi will be seen as the key to uniting all of the Islamic world under one rule. Fatwas will be issued all over the Islamic world proclaiming the coming of the Mahdi, calling all Muslims to his cause, with only minor opposition nothing shall be able to stop this from catching like wildfire. The majority of the populous under fundamentalist radical influence will welcome him with open arms, thus getting closer to the dream of becoming a united superpower. Having established control of the majority of the Islamic world, the few remaining moderate Muslim states will be overwhelmed, either by force, through subversion, or popular pressure. The fighting that starts in the Muslim world will eventually spill out into the rest of the world. The unfortunate side-effects of this unification will call for the eventual subjugation of Europe by force (to be done in part by fulfilling Mohammed's prophecy of the conquest of Rome), which will undoubtable start a world war. A war which the fundamentalist radicals will gladly bring about once they have the means to do so. A united empire of a billion people with all its resources and manpower will give them just what they want to do such a thing. The influence and control over the majority of the population is the first step in making this happen.

Preventing A Coming Jihad?

In order to prevent this future world war from becoming a reality, it is absolutely imperative that this slow steady march of fundamentalist radicalism trying to control the Muslim majority be brought to a halt. The best way to this is to give the more moderate Muslim a chance to spread their ideas effectively. Right now as it stands, Iraq is our last best chance to see that the moderates elements of Islam take hold of the Muslim world by introducing a freedom and openness which only democracy can provide. Although not an end in itself democracy is simply the means which will provide ans influx of tolerance and ideas which will help the moderates introduce long needed reforms such as basic of women (being one of many examples), in a part of the world were it is badly needed. That's why I believe George W. Bush took the right step in invading Iraq. Whether he knew about this Islamic prophecy and the future consequences of it is up for speculation. Perhaps he had been briefed on it and saw the horrific future potential and is one of the reasons he felt convicted to act, to this I can only guess. Regardless of cause, the right action has been taken.

Whether this democracy will spread and catch on and open up the Muslim world, is not even a guarantee, but simply a chance. But still, as most people will tell you, any chance even a small one is better than no chance at all. The crisis at hand requires patience and cooperation, neither of which is forthcoming. I am trying to be optimistic, but the more realistic side of me is saying in order for this to have the best chance of actually working, the entire West must be united in seeing that this will come to pass. A united west could put such pressure in the Middle East that the Islamic world may see the futility of opposing such a strong influence, instead the radicals Islamic elements draw strength in seeing opposition to the American effort both within the US and Europe. Although George W. Bush did make the right decision in invading Iraq, his main miscalculation may really have been counting on some of the major European "allies" to join in and seeing this to its end. It seems the pre-World War II attitudes of immediate (even if temporary) peace at all cost, and appeasement are here again. The question is will history repeat itself? The opposition to the war in Iraq by most of the European populace is not without its irony. In their efforts to seemingly want peace they derailed the efforts in Iraq, in their efforts to want immediate peace they will bring for themselves and their children a future war, a war in such a scale they won't believe.

Whether the US effort now will make a permanent change, or is simply futile, or will only buy us time, remains to be seen. What is sure, is if no effort is made, then things will continue down the same foreboding path. That is why something had to be done, and it is also why there is such an absolutely imperative need that the entire West back the US efforts. But that again is something I doubt will happen. So we are basically left with a mostly American effort, an effort although capable, may be lacking in some regards as far as a broader all encompassing spectrum is concerned, the kind needed to have more than a good chance of succeeding. As for now the US will definitely stay the course. So it is up to the US and a few allies who saw this as important to make a difference as far as the future goes. Will it be enough? Only time it will tell, with a little luck, maybe there is room for hope, but then again maybe not. What happens now in Iraq although seemingly isolated to the region at the present time, will in fact determine the future of the entire world and everything as we know it. The actions taken now will determin where we are headed, where we stand at the present is nothing less than the crossroad of destiny.
October 12th, 2005  
gladius
 
3 Most likely scenarios that could happen in Iraq

These are the 3 possible scenarios that I think could happen for Iraq given the parameters mentioned. Although this is only an educated guess in my part, the phenomenon of Mahdism has to be factored in when projecting any future dealing with the Arab/Islamic world. This knowledge is what most commentators lack when dealing with projecting any future for this part of the world.


Scenario 1
The best one we can hope for is that somehow democracy works in Iraq and miraculuosly catches on throughout the Middle East despite the disunity of the West. Or it may be that the entire West comes together to see this through. This gives birth to a new era in the region, one of tolerance and openness, almost guaranteeing a future of peace from the region. This however is the most unlikely scenario an is definitely a long shot, but still has a slim chance of happening. Definitely the best case scenario, let's all hope that this is the one that happens, although I tend to be more realistic. But even with this occurring there is no guarantee that Mahdism will not pose a problem in the future, albeit less so.


Scenario 2
The opposite could occur giving us a worst case scenario. With few willing to stand with the US, the Iraqi democracy collapses within a year or two after a US withdrawal resulting in civil war. All hope for democracy within the region is lost, with little hope of a better tomorrow people turn to the only other thing there is--- fundamentalist Islam. By 2011 the entire muslim world is under the grip of fundamentalist radicals, its only a matter of time before the rest of the world will see what this means.


Scenario 3
The third case scenario, the one I believe the most likely to happen.
A democracy is introduced in Iraq and is stable for around a decade or so. The moderates will gain some influence and they will slowly make strides. After this time the fundamentalist radicals slowly gain ground again because a disunited West did not help the US make a sweeping change to the region. The region is split between the moderates and the fundamentalist, but with the more radical fundametals willing to take extreme action the moderates keep getting pushed back. With the region almost equally divided the coming of the Mahdi results in a regional war, in which the radicals are most likely to win because of their more fanatical nature, causing the whole region to now come under fundamentalist radical rule. Once the regional war is over the newly formed Islamic empire prepares a massive military buildup for a war unlike anyone has ever seen, a war they believe they will win. Flashback to the present; because of Bush's decision and the US and (staunch but few) allied effort in Iraq at the moment, this has bought us time, some 10 to 20 years or more before the this actually happens, which isn't much, but better than nothing.