Iran/USA Conflict




 
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December 7th, 2004  
rostam
 

Topic: Iran/USA Conflict


This thread is to explore the US/Iran conflict.

1. What is the conflict about?
2. What leverage does each side hold?
3. Where is the conflict heading?

Feel free to respond to these questions and other relevant issues. I will post my own analysis later.
December 7th, 2004  
Xion
 
I think the conflicts about U.S.A.'s claim that Iran supports terrorist organisations and is planning to build a nuclear bomb.
I don't think even if Iran defies USA, USA can really do anything about it other than impose sanctions.Iran shouldn't be as easy as Iraq to overpower.But all facts certainly show that this situation is becoming worser by the day.
December 7th, 2004  
SHERMAN
 
 
please remember to not make this a X vs. Y toppic. That is, the toppic is not who will win. if it becomes the toppic, i will lock it.
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December 7th, 2004  
Kane
 
There is not "vs." in the foreign relations between Iran and the United States. Both of these countries have very different views in social morality. As a result, the two countries have been hostile to each other since the Hostage Crisis and the hostility will persist if there is no consesus or agreement from both countries.

In my opinion, United States and Iran are not in the direction to confront each other militarily with the Iraqi situation near by.
December 7th, 2004  
egoz
 
Iran knows that if the Iraq situation is resolved they are going to be next on the list of countries to jack up. So they're doing everything they can to make it difficult for the US to install any form of a government. In reality though, Afghanistan should be higher on the list. The whole Golden Crecent issue and capturing of Bin Laden should be priority.
December 7th, 2004  
Kane
 
Agreed, some people almost forgot about Bin Laden.
December 7th, 2004  
golhf
 
I think it will be a tragedy to Amerians if US invade Iran.
December 7th, 2004  
rostam
 
Here is my general analysis about the conflict:

1. What is the conflict about?

I would say primarily it’s about oil. If oil and gas were not important then there would be no such issues in the Middle East. I think most of the secondary issues, like 1953 coup, 1979 revolution, Iran-Iraq war, Israel, stem from the oil issue.

2. What leverage does each side hold?

US has strongest military, both conventional and unconventional. US has Iran surrounded with military bases. US economy and technology, and US sanctions against Iran has been significant. US has influence on other nations and the UN. US has powerful covert capabilities.

Iran has significant unconventional military, like missiles, chemical and biological weapons, and possibly some nuclear weapons, and ICBM technology is not far off. Iran has indigenous military and significant self sufficiency. Iran has large area and difficult terrain. Iran is capable of stopping oil flow from Persian Gulf with anti-ship missiles and mines. Iran is capable of harming oil production in the region. Iran has Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran will be major energy supplier to China and possibly India and Pakistan. Iran has influence in Iraq.

3. Where is the conflict heading?
My guess is the conflict will continue because these countries have conflicting interests. However, it is unlikely it will escalate into all out war, like in Iraq, unless China and maybe Russia consent, which is very unlikely. I think the conflict will be mainly covert and political.
December 7th, 2004  
rostam
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by egoz
Iran knows that if the Iraq situation is resolved they are going to be next on the list of countries to jack up. So they're doing everything they can to make it difficult for the US to install any form of a government.
I think Iran is flexing some muscle in Iraq, but if they really wanted to make it difficult for US they could have done much more. Iran has been very vocal about holding democratic elections in Iraq without delay, because majority of Iraqi’s are Shiites, and even more Iraqi’s are anti-American, so a true democratic consensus will be friendly to Iran and anti-US. This is probably why US first tried to push a “caucus style” election system, unsuccessfully:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story...126178,00.html

From the Article:
“At least in Iowa, the Democratic party caucuses involve elections. Not in the US plan for Iraq. The US is proposing that "notables" in each province attend these caucuses to appoint an assembly which would select a government.”
December 7th, 2004  
Chocobo_Blitzer
 
The Guardian, now there's an objective paper.

Anyways...

1-What is this conflict about?

Security:

I think the Iranian leaders think if they can equip their country with nuclear weapons, they'll have much more leverage in the world. Things are much different when you can place internal terrorist cells into countries AND you can ensure MAD.

The US might be the strongest nation in the world right now, but it doesn't matter when your enemy can obliterate your country in a heartbeat. Iran is no stranger with terrorist tactics, and those could prove fatal with nuclear weapons. Even without nuclear, Iran could damage the US or her interest indirectly with factions, with little repercussions because of a MAD policy.

2-What leverage does each side have?

The US has the best military and economy to fuel it. Precision and covert capabilities.

Iran has geographical size and population, it would create a very dense situation occupying wise. Incredibly hard, if not impossible (at the moment) for the US to have any real hold on.

3-Where is the conflict heading?

High intensity political

Iranian victory, they will equip themselves with nuclear weapons in the end. There is no stopping them. Any political "victory" the US or allies could receive is fake. The US and Israel can't use their militaries, and Europe is too cowardly.