Is Iran a Threat?

[42RM]

I don't think Iran would want to so quickly endanger these parties. Not on an buddy buddy basis, but because to Iran, these to NGO's act as Iran's foreign assets in many way.

Supplying Iran with the abilities and resources similar in SOME ways that the U.S. and other western powers have by luxury via a dedicated Special Forces Community that is under control of the goverment.

Iran doesn't have much to be picky choosy over in terms of foriegn support, especially support already on the ground and familiar with a particular area.

Regardless if the war begins with a limited number of air strikes against Iranian military and nuclear targets, or if an all-out several thousand target attack then the Iranians will simply not allow Israeli and/or American military forces to attack its territory without a major response. Any significant counter-attack on Israel and/or American regional bases will trigger a much greater counter-response.

 

[Der Alte]

The Iranians have equipped and paid for, and trained, a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon. These missiles are in-place as a MAD force. The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams.

The Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyshas) all utilizing only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian build and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control of Syrian and Iranian officers.

The combination of short to medium range rockets and guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria, the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight of warheads aimed at Israel.

The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel) was an attempt by Israel at eliminating the MAD counter-force in Lebanon. It was an attempt that failed. The Syrians had purchased (and supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles and the Iranian trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being - the Israelis chose the latter.

 

[hamidreza]

As I hear from Iranian politicians and military commanders a lot, Iran will reply to any attack at the earliest possible time. I heard from one of military commanders on Iran TV that the advantage of solid fuel missile is that it doesn’t need fuel injection like liquid fuel missiles and it is completely ready to fire anytime you want. They even don’t want to waste their time for fuel injection. And I promise that you will see the Israel’s attack and Iran’s reply at the same time on TV if Israel dares to attack Iran. At least 11000 missiles are ready for reply.
But about how will be involved in this war and how won’t, there are different scenarios. As Ayatollah Khamenei said in the first day of Iranian New Year (Nowruz), we will reply any attack in its level. So in my opinion it means that for example if we be attacked just by Israel, we attack to Israel not any other countries and not anyone will help us such as Hezbullah or the others. But if Israel be supported by the US the condition is different. At this time the west interest would be at risk not in ME but even in the world.

 

[hamidreza]

The thousands of nukes are thousands to much. Russia and the US have already reduced their nuclear arsenal and probably will continue to do so when further agreements are reached. The last thing the world needs are more countries with nukes. So if we can put a stop on new nukes then we can start at reducing the present ones, if not, we will be fighting a running battle.

I asked you why the US has thousands nukes and you tell me they will destroy it in future if x or y…. you probably expect that I believe your argument!! Destroying nukes is a big joke. They might destroy their old nukes to decrease their maintenance cost, but in other hand they are researching to make new nukes with several times more destructive power. They never destroy their nukes except in one condition. They find a new weapon which be several times stronger than nukes.
They don’t want to talk with the other countries just with their tongue. They want to talk with them with their tongue and a gun in their hand.

 

[RayManKiller3]

As Ayatollah Khamenei said in the first day of Iranian New Year (Nowruz), we will reply any attack in its level. So in my opinion it means that for example if we be attacked just by Israel, we attack to Israel not any other countries and not anyone will help us such as Hezbullah or the others. But if Israel be supported by the US the condition is different. At this time the west interest would be at risk not in ME but even in the world.

Israel isn't capable of attacking Iran by itself and get meaningful results. The logistics is just too great; they would need either U.S support (air refueling) and/or an Arab country support of letting Israel planes land in their territory and fly over it.

Iran should be careful if it do decide to retaliate... It shouldn't dare touch the straits otherwise it will see a lot of countries willing to attack it.



Seno:

You know and I know, that there is no way that the US would allow a potential enemy to develop a nuclear arsenal without arming themselves in a similar manner.

I agree U.S would probably arm itself if it could not stop them.

 

[hamidreza]

Israel isn't capable of attacking Iran by itself and get meaningful results. The logistics is just too great; they would need either U.S support (air refueling) and/or an Arab country support of letting Israel planes land in their territory and fly over it.

So it is better for west to control Israel if they aren't capable to attack Iran lonely.

Iran should be careful if it do decide to retaliate... It shouldn't dare touch the straits otherwise it will see a lot of countries willing to attack it.

Iran should be careful? huh. you are sleeping. wake up.

 

[uppercut]

You do know that one or two nukes can essentially wipe Israel out.. and they don't really have to use missiles to carry the warheads- how can you expect us to just stand and watch? even if we retaliate the Iranians will be considered heroes and Shaeeds and for some it's a price they are willing to pay...
I'm afraid that the time will come that computer viruses and scientists' assassinations will not be enough to stop them, do you think that Israel has enough in the field of drones or nano technology to take it to some next level?

 

[VDKMS]

The Iranians have equipped and paid for, and trained, a massive unguided rocket and guided missile force in Lebanon. These missiles are in-place as a MAD force. The total number of missiles and rockets in Lebanon are variously estimated at between 40,000 and 110,000. While many are unguided Katyusha rockets, many are longer ranged guided missiles. All are operated by Hezbollah Special Forces launch teams.

The Hezbollah Special Forces are in-effect a highly trained and well-equipped Iranian commando force of at least a Brigade in size. They man and protect a large number of mostly unguided and rather crude rockets, generally Katyusha 122mm artillery rockets with a 19 mile/30km range and capable of delivering approximately 66 pounds/30kg of warheads. Additionally, Hezbollah are known to possess a considerable number of more advanced and longer range missiles. During the 2006 war Hezbollah fired approximately 4,000 rockets (95% of which were Katyshas) all utilizing only "dumb" high explosive warheads. Some Iranian build and supplied Fajr-3 and Ra'ad 1 liquid-fueled missiles were also fired. It is believed that the larger and longer range missiles are directly under the control of Syrian and Iranian officers.

The combination of short to medium range rockets and guided missiles in Lebanon, and the longer range guided missiles in Syria, the smaller number of rockets and missiles in the West Bank and Gaza, and the longer range guided missiles in Iran present a massive throw weight of warheads aimed at Israel.

The 2006 Israeli-Hezbollah War (called the Second Lebanon War in Israel) was an attempt by Israel at eliminating the MAD counter-force in Lebanon. It was an attempt that failed. The Syrians had purchased (and supplied to Hezbollah) a large number of very nasty, relatively low cost Russian AT-14 Kornet solid fuel anti-tank guided missiles and the Iranian trained Hezbollah commandos dug in massive numbers of concrete bunkers and firing positions. After over 50 Merkava main battle tanks were hit, and the high tech American made warplanes and pinpoint weapons proved ineffective, the handwriting was on the wall. Either use neutron bombs or lose a large number of Israeli solders to remove the Hezbollah threat; or declare peace and walk away for the time being - the Israelis chose the latter.

52 Merkava's were hit by RPG 29, Kornet E, Metis-M, and Concourse missiles (all are tandem missiles). Only 5 Merkava's had to be written of (including 2 destroyed by IED's). 18 of the damaged tanks were the most modern Merkava Mark IV. Eight of the those were still serviceable, despite being hit. 23 crewmen were killed. At that time they didn't have the active protection systems which recently proved its effectiveness.

The Israelis made the mistake in thinking they could destroy Hezbollah by air power alone. There are to many Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Many buildings in South Lebanon have a "munition chamber". In the next war the IDF ground forces will quickly gain ground in Lebanon.

Israel did not lose this war. UNSC resolution 1701 demands : "full implementation of the relevant provisions of the Taif Accords, and of resolutions 1559 (2004) and 1680 (2006), that require the disarmament of all armed groups in Lebanon, so that, pursuant to the Lebanese cabinet decision of 27 July 2006, there will be no weapons or authority in Lebanon other than that of the Lebanese State". Up until today this has not happen.

 

[VDKMS]

So it is better for west to control Israel if they aren't capable to attack Iran lonely.


Iran should be careful? huh. you are sleeping. wake up.

No, it would be better that the Arab countries recognize Israel and guarantee its safety by pressing the Palestinians to start working at their country instead of shooting rockets. It worked with Jordan and Egypt, it wil also work with other Arab countries if they want to.

Iran can very easely defuse the situation by complying to the UNSC resolutions, let the IAEA do its job and if Iran's nuclear program is peacefull as they say the sanctions will be lifted very soon and their nuclear powerplants will deliver energy in no time.

 

[RayManKiller3]

So it is better for west to control Israel if they aren't capable to attack Iran lonely.

Do not say the west should control Israel on this matter as they have a legitimate concern for an Iran with nukes and will only suffer political consequences for it.

I said if Israel do attack it would be with the support of either the U.S or a surrounding Arab country. The only way Iran will be able to retaliate directly ONLY to Israel is to use ranged attacks (unguided and guided rockets/missiles). Israel do not have to worry about an invasion from Iran itself imo. Iran have very limited retaliation methods to an Israeli strike, so why should Israel be worried about striking them before they do get nukes?

Even with a stretched Air Force, Israel can handle Hezbollah and Hamas.

Iran should be careful? huh. you are sleeping. wake up.

I said they should be careful how they retaliate. Everyone (or most at least)would be on Iran's side if Israel do carry out such a strike. If Iran decide to threaten the Straits like they did before it will then bring U.S fully into it. They should also NOT attack any of the countries U.S has bases in.

We can't say for sure if U.S is going to support Israel in an airstrike and I would hope we don't directly support it as it will allow Iran to use our strike as its momentum to build patriotism.

I am of the most distinct belief that if Iran do decide to get nukes, it would do more harm than good for them and I am 100% certain it will create a nuclear arms race.

Look on a revelant map shows how many countries attempted to get nukes in the past. All of these countries were either persuaded, forced, or just decided to cancel their programs

 

[VDKMS]

In the meantime, all sorts of fronts portrayed for years in the region as threats are, in fact, now coming to power. And while major Western powers said nothing when the Algerian Islamic Salvation Front (FIS), which was overwhelming victorious in democratic elections in 1991, was crushed by a military junta that year, now they say nothing as movements similar to FIS come to power in Tunisia, Egypt and Morocco.
There can be little doubt that some significant national powers, first and foremost many Western countries, are made very uncomfortable by the spread of parties that tend toward Islam, a trend that began in Turkey, throughout the region.

There's a big difference between moderate Islamic parties and fanatic Islamic ones. The west don't care about the former but do not want the latter. The FIS belonged to the latter.

Secularists started the Arab spring, Islamists joined in after they saw it was feasbale.

And when you add to this the economic and political warmness that will develop in the region between these leaderships, the situation becomes a true nightmare for Western nations and other significant powers.

The relationships are not as warm as one might think. Of course the whole Arab spring is still in its early stages. But to give an example, Turkish Erdogan was not very welcomed in Tunesia. They didn't want him there but he didn't care and came. He even brought the posters with his photo with him to hang in the streets.

The US invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq, which began in 2001 and in 2003, either intentionally or accidentally served the cause and interests of Iran. The excuse for entering Afghanistan was al-Qaeda, whose very existence, not to mention its leadership cadre, was questionable. At the same time, the reason for invading Iraq was chemical weapons, which turned out not to even exist.

US forces did find WMD in Iraq, although not in huge quantities.
Wikileaks documents show WMDs found in Iraq

The only real result from the US entry into these countries was the leaving of the countries with enormous problems, the likes of which could never be solved. Though it theoretically entered Afghanistan to fight against terror, what the US will leave behind in that region is two countries that experience terror every day, which leaves countless dead: Afghanistan and Pakistan. And while it officially pulled out of Iraq around this past New Year’s, what we have now is an Iraq literally split into three parts.

One must not forget what life was in those countries before the invasion. The Taliban regime was responsible for 15 massacres between 1996 and 2001 (same type of war crimes as were committed in Bosnia). In 1998 160.000 people were denied food assistance because of political and military reasons. Also in 1998 Iran mobilized its army, deploying men along the border with Afghanistan because the Taliban killed 10 Iranian diplomats. And there were more atrocities.
Iraq wasn't a much better place under Sadam. According to The New York Times ( Regrets Only? ), "Saddam murdered as many as a million of his people, many with poison gas. He tortured, maimed and imprisoned countless more. His unprovoked invasion of Iran is estimated to have left another million people dead. His seizure of Kuwait threw the Middle East into crisis. Wonder what Saddam would have done with a foe (Iran) possibly looking for nuclear weapons.

And so we have today an Iran that acts not only as the final authority on the Persian Gulf but which is also on the verge of becoming a real voice in the goings-on in the eastern Mediterranean. Iran’s name is on tongues everywhere, from Iraq to Lebanon, from Bahrain to Yemen.

Yes, but most as a foe, not an ally.

Will such an Iran really allow stability to come to the region or let strong ties develop between Sunni nations? The answer is no: Iran, which throughout its long history has gone to war only with other Muslim nations, will do as it has done for centuries now and forge new alliances with Western nations while preventing ties from developing between Sunni ones.

The only thing Iran does is driving Sunny Arab states to the West because they can guarantee their safety.

As a result then, neither Israel nor the US will want to see the elimination or even heavy damaging of Iran by staging attacks, as it is a nation for which they will have a need in the future.

The only need they have for Iran is regime change. The covert war has already begun.

 

[42RM]

Sorry VDKMS!

But your answer to der alte seems pretty arogant to me.
I don´t know what your background is, but since that der alte is a former staff officer, Intelligence officer and military analyst, I have more faith in him.

 

[Der Alte]

Sorry VDKMS!

But your answer to der alte seems pretty arogant to me.
I don´t know what your background is, but since that der alte is a former staff officer, Intelligence officer and military analyst, I have more faith in him.

Thank you for the confidence, Gentlemen.
But nobody has a patent on the truth.

 

[MontyB]

You clearly have never tried arguing with the wife then.

 

[Der Alte]

You clearly have never tried arguing with the wife then.

Oh no!
But I have also grown up under a totalitarian regime where it was best to keep your mouth shut. So when I got married, the difference was not that great. It was still "Befehl und ich folgen" (Command and I will follow) :lol:

 

[hamidreza]

RayManKiller3:

Do not say the west should control Israel on this matter as they have a legitimate concern for an Iran with nukes and will only suffer political consequences for it.

I said if Israel do attack it would be with the support of either the U.S or a surrounding Arab country. The only way Iran will be able to retaliate directly ONLY to Israel is to use ranged attacks (unguided and guided rockets/missiles). Israel do not have to worry about an invasion from Iran itself imo. Iran have very limited retaliation methods to an Israeli strike, so why should Israel be worried about striking them before they do get nukes?

Even with a stretched Air Force, Israel can handle Hezbollah and Hamas.

I hope Israel carry out this attack lonely or with her friends as soon as possible. As I see the results of US-Afghanistan, US-Iraq and Israel-Hezbollah wars, I've found that you have much more clever politician than I thought before!

RayManKiller3:

I said they should be careful how they retaliate. Everyone (or most at least)would be on Iran's side if Israel do carry out such a strike. If Iran decide to threaten the Straits like they did before it will then bring U.S fully into it. They should also NOT attack any of the countries U.S has bases in.

We can't say for sure if U.S is going to support Israel in an airstrike and I would hope we don't directly support it as it will allow Iran to use our strike as its momentum to build patriotism.

Don't be worry. We won't block the Strait if the US doesn't enter the war. And if the US enter the war, since the main battlefield will be in Persian Gulf, the Strait will be closed automatically, because no tanker will dare to pass through a battlefield.(at least the west tankers).

RayManKiller3:

I am of the most distinct belief that if Iran do decide to get nukes, it would do more harm than good for them and I am 100% certain it will create a nuclear arms race.

Look on a revelant map shows how many countries attempted to get nukes in the past. All of these countries were either persuaded, forced, or just decided to cancel their programs

You have the largest nukes stockpiles, you have the most advanced WMD, you used the nukes in WWII, you threaten the other countries' integrity, you start a war each ten years in the world( in the average), you prevent the countries to achieve their legal rights, .... And also you are care about world peace!
I think you are too care and it is not good for your health. It is not necessary to kill all evils at this century. Leave some of them for posterity. They might fight with each other if they don't find any evils.

 

[VDKMS]

RayManKiller3:
I hope Israel carry out this attack lonely or with her friends as soon as possible. As I see the results of US-Afghanistan, US-Iraq and Israel-Hezbollah wars, I've found that you have much more clever politician than I thought before!

It would be better to put your clerics where they belong, in mosques instead of government. Comply to the IAEA and the danger for an attack vaporizes.

 

[VDKMS]

Sorry VDKMS!

But your answer to der alte seems pretty arogant to me.
I don´t know what your background is, but since that der alte is a former staff officer, Intelligence officer and military analyst, I have more faith in him.

I thought we are arguin here on equal terms. I respect der alte as much as you do. His articles are very well thought out but I diasagree with im on this tread. I can't see what's arogant about that.

 

[hamidreza]

Der Alte you have good information about ME, especially Iran. I don't know where is your source but I am sure it isn't west media (or at least most of them).

 

[RayManKiller3]

I think much as the Nazi's needed the Jews to focus the ills of a country on the USA needs Iran to take peoples minds off their ills and make them feel relevant.

LOL didn't you say that before somewhere? I am not sure I agree with you on that as majority of U.S citizens want the politicians to focus more on it's economy. These wars are only delaying our recovery (if we do recover).