Firstly:
Mosuito: How the hell could Japan attack south of the caucasus?!? Rommel was in a far better position to do so but he didn't have a chance
Secondly:
Japan if it would not attack Pearl Harbour would run out of oil in a few months due to the US embargo. Infact the very reason for Pearl Harbour taking place on December 7th was that a month from that Japan could no longer strike due to oil shortages.
Thirdly:
Japans army proved inferior (when not fighting on islands and in any way close to the sea) to any other foe. They couldn't defeat China in 14 years of war!!! Also every skirmish that historicaly took place in Manchuria betwen Jap and SU went decicevely to the Soviets. One must not also forget the campagin in Manchuria in 1945 when in a matter of days the Red Army overran the Kwangtung army and occupied teritory the size of Western Europe (the Soviet forces numbered soume 1.500.000 vs. the Japanese strenght of 1.000.000).
As for the SU being streched on two fronts IMO it could hold as even after transfering reserves to the west they kept 400.000 men in the far east. I think it would take MUCH longer than historicly but eventualy the SU would prevail as Japan would fall (in the mainland at least) followed by a transfer of all available troops to the west wich would already be battle-hardened in contrast to 1941!
And it would also be important that China would get a direct route for suplies after the Burma road got cut-off! Imagine 1000 T-34 appering in China against the flimsy Japanese tanks!!!