How long could Taiwan hold out? - Page 2




 
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March 9th, 2018  
I3BrigPvSk
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by oz codger
Have to agree with that. I doubt that China wants to risk "losing face", but making a series of threats and never carrying them out reduces cred.

OC
North Korea is a bigger problem than Taiwan is
March 9th, 2018  
oz codger
 
 
Yes, very much so!

But I doubt that NK could make all that much progress south. SK are well equipped, trained, and prepared for the obvious game plan.

As are the Americans.

OC
March 11th, 2018  
MontyB
 
 
I think you may be making the mistake of looking at this from the point of view of a conventional assault, China could flatten Taiwan long before it sent in troops and simply use its navy to keep the US from getting close to Taiwan.
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March 11th, 2018  
oz codger
 
 
Monty,

In #8 I did use the word 'conventional" and assumed the use of short range missiles to erase targets above ground. But Taiwan is not stupid, they know all this and must have planned for it and i will bet the main stuff is well underground. Every ambitious Colonel will have game planned and documented everything that can or should happen.

I really doubt that the USN has to join the fight. There will be a blockade for sure but the invasion will be defeated before it can take effect.

With tunnels all over the mountains, some of which will be fakes, China cannot hope to zap every hiding place and every mile of road on the island. IF China cannot remove a high % of the anti-air and anti-ship missiles from the contest I believe she would fail.

Nevertheless I am certain that if China had charmed the pants off Taiwan over the past decade or two she would have had the island back in the fold well before now.

JMO


OC
March 11th, 2018  
I3BrigPvSk
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
I think you may be making the mistake of looking at this from the point of view of a conventional assault, China could flatten Taiwan long before it sent in troops and simply use its navy to keep the US from getting close to Taiwan.
Sure, they can use nukes against Taiwan, the term conventional means not using N weapons. China can use C- weapons and probably not get the same international reaction as they get if they are using nukes. B-weapons are tricky to use efficiently, maybe the latter can be spread prior the major hostilities begin. The Chinese don't need to fear the US navy, but it will fear the interference of the US air power. The battle will probably be an air battle and not a naval battle
 


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