How the Iran-Syria defense pact may affect

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UnitedSomalia

UnitedSomalia

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Recently I was discussing with few other gentlemen I work with about the purported Iranian-Syria defense agreements that were signed secretly since the Iraq invasion. That agreement not only stressed the cooperation the 2 countries had since their alliance at the onset of the Iraq-Iran war, but new clauses that stress that one will actively come to the aid of the other in case of war.

According to my understanding that agreement provides for:

1) Iran subsidizing Syrian purchases from Russia with oil money.
2) Iran helping Syria pay of Soviet era debts to Russia in order to clear the
way for new purchases.
3) It provides for the stationing of Iranian revolutionary guards troops
and equipment in Syria in times of heighten tension with Israel
4) It provides for Syria to ratchet up support for Iran in the Arab league
and the Arab nations
5) It provides for Syria and Hezbollah to open up a second front in case war
against Iran
6) It provides that Iran & Syria to coordinate their ballistic missiles,
chemical & biological weapon arsenal in case the 2 nations are
threatened with full fledged invasion or regime change.

etc...

What I want to know is if war breaks out between Israel and Syria, how will Israel react to thousands of trained, motivated, and willing IRGC troops taking part in actions against Israel alongside the Syrian army. Looking at how supposed Iranian training and leadership led to Hezbollah's unexpectedly brilliant performance in Lebanon. I believe that the presence of volunteer, well trained, and professional IRGC troops not the conscripts like the Syrian troops may level the playing field at the front for the Syrian army. IRGC troops in the front with the Syrian troops and IRGC troops taking over the air defenses of Syria can and may also help Syria perform better in a war.

What I want to discuss is the affects of an Iranian involvement in a conflict between Israel and Syria. I want to also discuss how Iran can effect the balance in such a war. I know you guys will bring up how Arab involvement in such previous wars didn't change much of the outcome, but one must remember many of those Arab nations like Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait etc that were providing troops to the front states such as Syria and Egypt had no experience in a war like Iran, they had ill equiped and ill motivated troops, they also had conscript force unlike the volunteer IRGC, those Arab troops also hated their governments unlike the IRGC who is willing to fight for their government to the death. Overall I believe an Iranian contribution can affect such as war more than the previous Arab contributions.
 
To be honest until Middle Eastern nations start to understand that air power is more important than armour and that quality is for the most part more important than quantity the balance of power will not change in the Middle East.

The whole of the Iranian defence forces can move to Syria and it will not change a thing until they ditch the 1970s equipment/thinking and put the time and money into training high quality soldiers in top class equipment.
 
Well the IRGC is a professional force and a volunteer force, they operate not in mass formations like the Basij paramilitary forces of Iran that was widely used in the Iraq-Iran war but in small independent units that can sustain to be self sufficient for long periods of times. They from my understanding don't operate with the Russian doctrine of mass formations and interdependent forces that so horribly failed Syria and Egypt. The IRGC operates similar to the way Hezbollah forces operated, their Qud force trained Hezbollah, at least that is what is purported.

The West states the necessity of a professional and volunteer military forces is paramount in today's wars, if this is true then IRGC fits that criteria, they are volunteer, professional, highly paid, motivated, well trained force. I think they can make a difference if they deploy alongside the Syrian army in a war with Israel as long as they have an adquate, portable air defense systems deployed with each independent IRGC unit that is fighting.
 
I have no doubt they are motivated, I have no doubt they are volunteer and they are probably well paid but it is about at that point I stop being charitable, T-55, 62 and 72s no longer cut it on a modern battlefield neither do MiG 23, 25, 27s or half a dozen MiG 29s.
Like most of the Middle East (Israel excluded) Syria is fighting wars with tactics and structures best suited to 1930 and to be be perfectly blunt Iran is no better.

It seems to me that the Middle Eastern armed forces are more designed to keep populations under control and than fight any type of war against a modern opponent.
 
Well from what I read up on and studied about them IRGC does not operate in mass formations and interdependent units that failed the Syrians and Egyptians horribly before, the problem with the mass formations with armor forces is that if they don't have proper aircover those heavy armor divisions can be destroyed from the air before they even have an impact on the battlefield. So the IRGC operates in small, independent, self sufficient units the same way Hezbollah did; they make use of quick movement and tageted attacks against the enemies flanks, rear, supplies and reinforcement routes. By operating in small units they reduce their signature; thus avoiding air bombardment, the small IRGC units also employ from my understanding portable SAMs for limited aircover during engagements.

I say if this is how they truely plan to operate in a war, its a tactic and a doctrine that may work well if they see action in Syria specialy when carried out by a volunteer and wel motivated force like the IRGC.
 
So the IRGC operates in small, independent, self sufficient units the same way Hezbollah did; they make use of quick movement and tageted attacks against the enemies flanks, rear, supplies and reinforcement routes.
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Well I have a few points:
1) In Lebanon 2006 the IRGC already fought against Israel, infact aquite a few were killed. So, what you suggest is very possible.
2)The IRGC, as you say, will operate similar to Hezballah in 2006. This is similar to how the Syrian Commando are probably going to operate. There is no doubt that if there are a few thousand IRGC running around, it will make things more diffecult for the IDF, in the same manner thata few thousand Syrian Commando troops would.
3)All this said and done, there are still a few problems with using gurrila warfare in a conflict between Syria and Israel:
A) Israel has no intention of occupying Syria. The IDF might invade Syria and destroy its military and stratigic civilian assets, but it will not stick around in Damascus.
B) The Syrian regieme is un-stable as it is(Being a minority rulling the majority) and might colapse fast and hard if its military is not there to supress revolts. Gurrila units arnt built for counter insurgency.
C)Gurrila units can irritate and hurt the IDF but they wont stop it from completely destroying the Syrian military an regieme. Syria has power stations, damms, roads, govrenment buildings, military centers. Non of these can be saved by a gurrila effort.
D) Hezballa did not stop the IDF in Lebanon, and by all military measure it lost. I suffered a 5-1 or 8-1 casualty rate and lost most of its assets. To top that its been 2 years since and I assure you IDF has learned its lessons...
 
We do agree on the way IRGC will operate which is in small, independent, self sufficient units the same way Hezbollah did; they make use of quick movement and targeted attacks against the enemies flanks, rear, supplies and reinforcement routes.

What we disagree on is you calling that tactic guerrilla warfare, its not guerrilla warfare because they are not going to do hit and run tactic similar to the Iraq insurgency. The IRGC will operate like a professional arm not a ragtag militia; they will operate in small, self sufficient and independent units they will also employ Kornet, Milan and many other Anti-tank portable missiles which can wreck havoc on Israeli armor making Hezbollah look like punch of amateurs if IDF attempts to penetrate Syria in a ground offensive.

They will harass Israeli armor flanks, rear, supply and reinforcements making any ground invasion of Syria to costly for the IDF in terms of loss of armor and troops. It will be hard for Israel to employ their air power against the IRGC also because IRGC is not fighting in mass formations they operate small; thus, reducing their signature. Israel's key to warfare is air power not their ground units, and since Israel can't use their airpower against the IRGC, their armor units will fall victim to the hail of anti-tank missiles and such.

Also about your Hezbollah comment, if Hezbollah's total strength is 2-3 thousand, its not possible logically they could have lost 5-1 or 8-1, and most of the assets are still intact since they were hidden and they still have 15-20 thousand missiles and thousands of anti-tank missiles, most of the casualties you are calling Hezbollah casualties are the Lebanese civilians that died from Israel's fire bombing of Lebanese city centers, airports, highways, sea ports, etc. The Hezbollah ground troops themselves were not in these centers and only Lebanese civilians fell victim, the actual Hezbollah death toll is a lot lower.
 
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What we disagree on is you calling that tactic guerrilla warfare, its not guerrilla warfare because they are not going to do hit and run tactic similar to the Iraq insurgency. The IRGC will operate like a professional army not a ragtag militia; they will operate in small, self sufficient and independent units they will also employ Kornet, Milan and many other Anti-tank portable missiles which can wreck havoc on Israeli armor making Hezbollah look like bunch of amateurs if IDF attempts to penetrate Syria in a ground offensive.
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The only way a small force can survive a larger is by disapearing and reapearing, or it gets squashed by sheer noumbers. There is nothing unproffesional about it, its part of war. If small groups dont fire and than hide they will die very quick. Other than that, all you mention is exactly what the Hezballah and Commando work like.
They will harass Israeli armor flanks, rear, supply and reinforcements making any ground invasion of Syria to costly for the IDF in terms of loss of armor and troops. It will be hard for Israel to employ their air power against the IRGC also because IRGC is not fighting in mass formations they operate small; thus, reducing their signature. Israel's key to warfare is air power not their ground units, and since Israel can't use their airpower against the IRGC, their armor units will fall victim to the hail of anti-tank missiles and such.
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Slow down there for a minute. You sound like xarxes in "300". "Hail of anti tank missiles"...:)Israel has very formidable ground units, including Armor, Infantery and Artillery. In all these fields it is better trained, better armed and simply better than the Syrians, Iranis, or Lebanese. Even if the missiles are launched by small groups, they still have to be launched from somewhere...And with out going to detail, it is possible to deal with ATGMs.
Also about your Hezbollah comment, if Hezbollah's total strength is 2-3 thousand, its not possible logically they could have lost 5-1 or 8-1, and most of the assets are still intact since they were hidden and they still have 15-20 thousand missiles and thousands of anti-tank missiles, most of the casualties you are calling Hezbollah casualties are the Lebanese civilians that died from Israel's fire bombing of Lebanese city centers, airports, highways, sea ports, etc. The Lebanese ground troops themselves were not in these centers and only Lebanese civilians fell victim, the actual Hezbollah death toll is a lot lower.
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No, you are mistaken. The ratio acording to UN figures was 5-1. According to Israel it was 8-1, and according to hezballah it was 1-1. If hezballahs claims are truthfull, than it has lost around 100 of its men. Now let me tell you somthing, if this is true, than I know in person the people responsible for almost 50% of Hezballah casualties(which would not make sens:) ). More over israel had 200 hezballah dead personel when the war was over.
 
Sherman from what I have been told by poeple who know Syrian infantry are pretty darn tough, it's every thing else that let's them down. Air, Armor, Artilery, and C2

Iran and Syria have a long way to go before they can hope to challenge Israel.
 
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Sherman from what I have been told by poeple who know Syrian infantry are pretty darn tough, it's every thing else that let's them down. Air, Armor, Artilery, and C2
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All of their units are capable of fighting it out. Like any 3rd rate military, it is not a matter of courage it is a matter of training and weapons.
 
Can you please stop with these ratios?
There was no winner in the Lebanon-Israel war. They both lost miserably. Israel lost many precious lives and Lebanon aswell.
But as Israel was seen as a superpower capable of crushing any Arab army without any problem... It seems that Hezbollah lost less...
But we all know that they lost their best troops in the battle. It's just a political victory for them. Because they prooved that they are less miserable than the miserable armies who fought Israel before them. Big deal...

I have some respect for Iran. Among the other oil rich Muslim countries, they have some spirit. They have a space programm, nuclear programm Etc etc... Good for them. At least, they didnt turn like Saudi Arabia into a country of slavers wasting tons of money on luxurious items without any strategic utility.

The Syrian regime wont last long...

And I'm surprised to see Iran, a Chiite regime shaking hands with Syria's regime that is a secular Baath party style government like in Saddam's Irak... I'm damn surprised.

The Muslims should work together. Maybe that will get better and reach the level of democracy working together. Who knows?
 
Can you please stop with these ratios?
There was no winner in the Lebanon-Israel war. They both lost miserably. Israel lost many precious lives and Lebanon aswell.
But as Israel was seen as a superpower capable of crushing any Arab army without any problem... It seems that Hezbollah lost less...
But we all know that they lost their best troops in the battle. It's just a political victory for them. Because they prooved that they are less miserable than the miserable armies who fought Israel before them. Big deal...
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Oh, see there is the problem. War is not about kill ratios. It is about achieving political goals. It will take years to say who gained more from this war. But military wise, I have no doubt who won. This shows in kill ratios, damage to stratigic assets, and ground taken. In all those catagories, Israel was predictebly far superior.

And I'm surprised to see Iran, a Chiite regime shaking hands with Syria's regime that is a secular Baath party style government like in Saddam's Irak... I'm damn surprised.
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Snakes have snakes for friends.. Two very opressive, violent, radical regiemes with common enemies. Stalin and Hitler had a military agreement 2, remember?
 
Sherman,
I think we can agree Lebanon was a mess, you can't spin it into a victory, by the same token your enemies can't claim vicotry.

I was shocked at the fact they held their ground as well as they did considering the weapons both sides had, before invading another country you should have clear political and military objectives look at the mess we have in Iraq! ;-)
 
I think we can agree Lebanon was a mess, you can't spin it into a victory, by the same token your enemies can't claim vicotry
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Im not claiming victory. War is policy continued in diffrent means. In order to see if Israel gained from this war i need a time machine. I am however well informed on the military aspects, and I can say with no doubt or problem that they were beaten. When they dident run, they died. nearly every tactical engagement was an IDf clear cut victory.
However, as sun tzu said, tactics with out strategy are the fast way to defeat.
 
Basically in 2006 IDF found itself with very little clear objectives. It fought alot of engagements that had nothing to do with anything. Against Syria the war objectives are there for the past 60 years...Protect the Golan, Destroy the Syrian Military, Bring the fight as close to damascus as possible and force them to stop fighting.
 
Who cares, we all know what will happened. OK Iran may make it tough for Israel, but if Israel starts to lose, the US will come in with a 1.000 planes and kill them all, and it doesen's matter if the IRGC are working in small units beacuse they only have so much space to hide in, let's face it, they are not fighting in Siberia.

To the other thing, about complaining that Syria isn't good beacuse of conscripts is just b**** s****. Sweden (My Country) has conscripts and i bet they are better trained then the volunter, well trained IRGC.

It's All a matter of training.
 
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"What event in history causes you to think that will happen?"

What event in history? LMAO!!!!!!!!! Please tell me you didn't mean to say that. Remember 1973 war when Israel lost 100 fighters at the onset of the war which basically meant Israel lost 30% of their air fleet and if the war continued at that rate without the American airlift Israeli air force would have been knocked out of the war. Also Israel lost so much of their armor to Egyprian and Syrian ATGM teams. America is like Israel's big brother that is on steroids and has roid rages, everytime Israel is in a jam militarily or politically it bails them out. Israel wouldn't have waged many of the wars after the 1956 war if it wasn't due to American backing them up, cuz at that time France pretty much stopped supplying Israel. Even as recent as the Hezbollah-Israel conflict, when Israel depleted their smart bombs and cluster bombs, America sent shipments.

So if ever Israel and Syria have a war and the IRGC creates problems for Israel in terms of doing serious damage to Israeli ground units, its highly likely America will get involved. Or if Israel was ever in a positon of dire situation and were overwhelmed and couldn't defend themselves their older brother on steroids America will fight for them.
 
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