Hitler's speech of 8 november in München




 
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June 24th, 2014  
lljadw
 

Topic: Hitler's speech of 8 november in München


Hitler :

"I wanted to reach the Volga at a certain spot,at a certain city.Coincidentially it carries the name of Stalin himself.But you shouldn't think that I marched there for this reason-it could be named completely different.I went there because it is a very important spot .There one cuts 30 million tons of traffic,including nearly 9 million tons of oil-traffic .There the whole grain from those enormous regions of the Ukraine,the Kuban did rendezvous to be transported north.There the manganese ore was transported.There was a gigantic traffic site......."

Questions :

1°There are at least 4 stupidities in this excerpt: who knows which ?


2° Why was Hitler saying these stupidities?

a° Did he believe them ?

b° Did he expect that the party ignoramus gathered in the room would believe them?
June 24th, 2014  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
Hitler :

"I wanted to reach the Volga at a certain spot,at a certain city.Coincidentially it carries the name of Stalin himself.But you shouldn't think that I marched there for this reason-it could be named completely different.I went there because it is a very important spot .There one cuts 30 million tons of traffic,including nearly 9 million tons of oil-traffic .There the whole grain from those enormous regions of the Ukraine,the Kuban did rendezvous to be transported north.There the manganese ore was transported.There was a gigantic traffic site......."

Questions :

1°There are at least 4 stupidities in this excerpt: who knows which ?


2° Why was Hitler saying these stupidities?

a° Did he believe them ?

b° Did he expect that the party ignoramus gathered in the room would believe them?
I am not sure I understand your questions here, but given that the bulk of the Ukraine was in German hands I suspect most of the grain was going west not east outside that and without knowing the exact numbers I suspect the answers will come down to how important you believe Stalingrad was as a transport hub.

I suspect he was saying those things for the same reason all politicians speak, if they didn't spout on no one would have any use for them at all and I suspect that he believed there was an element of truth in what he was saying although it would have been spun to make him seem like he was in control.

Yes I suspect he did believe that party idiots would believe them because much like today there is a percentage of the population that will believe anything no matter how ludicrous that comes out of the mouths of political movements they are aligned with.
Hell in a poll released in 2012 15% of Americans still believed Hussein played a part in the 9/11 attacks which proves you can convince idiots of anything and it will persist no matter how much evidence to the contrary.
June 24th, 2014  
JOC
 
 

Topic: not sure


Hitler was like a high and mighty leader to most of these people and they likely believed him like they were lead to believe lie after lie during the prewar and war periods of Nazi Germany.

The grain as MontyB said was nonsense since the whole of the Ukraine was under German control at this time.

It may have been a hub for Caucus oil?

I would say some traffic into the heart of Russia would be cut off from southern - Caucus USSR?

Kuban near Rostov, I think?
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June 25th, 2014  
lljadw
 


As already had been indicated

1)no grain from the Ukraine was going east

2) no products from the Kuban were going east

3)the same for the manganese

4) the claim that BEFORE the war 30 million tons were rendezvous at Stalingrad (of which 9 million of oil) is meaningless :9 million tons of oil = 30 ¨of the Soviet oil production in 1940 :no one can calculate the results for the SU if these 9 million tons were not rendezvous at Stalingrad .
As usual,Adolf was using meaningless raw figures to impress the audience .

From the authorative Germany and WWII (Tome VI):

The Soviet oil requirement was FAR BELOW the production (translation : the Soviets produced more oil than they needed),which means that the results of the loss of the Caucasus oil were incalculable,which means that the Fall Blau was a house of cards built on quick-sands .

The loss of Baku would result in a significant disruption,but it was totally uncertain how significant this disruption would be .

Other point : the Soviet energy mix :before the war : oil 18.7%,wood : 20 %,rest (mainly coal):some 60 %.
:at the end of the war : oil :15 %,woor : 50 %,rest : 35 %

In 1949 the CIA was giving an estimate of the requirements of refined oil by the principal Soviet consumers:

Peace : military : 4.8 million ton ( = 15 %)
: others : 25.1 million ton (= 85 %)

War : military :13.1 million (= 39 %)

: others : 20.7 million ( = 61 %)


My guess is that in WWII the part of the oil consumption by the military was lower than the CIA estimates for 1949.


Conclusion : the economic importance of Stalingrad was probably the usual inflated balloon .
June 25th, 2014  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw


As already had been indicated

1)no grain from the Ukraine was going east

2) no products from the Kuban were going east

3)the same for the manganese

4) the claim that BEFORE the war 30 million tons were rendezvous at Stalingrad (of which 9 million of oil) is meaningless :9 million tons of oil = 30 ¨of the Soviet oil production in 1940 :no one can calculate the results for the SU if these 9 million tons were not rendezvous at Stalingrad .
As usual,Adolf was using meaningless raw figures to impress the audience .

From the authorative Germany and WWII (Tome VI):

The Soviet oil requirement was FAR BELOW the production (translation : the Soviets produced more oil than they needed),which means that the results of the loss of the Caucasus oil were incalculable,which means that the Fall Blau was a house of cards built on quick-sands .

The loss of Baku would result in a significant disruption,but it was totally uncertain how significant this disruption would be .

Other point : the Soviet energy mix :before the war : oil 18.7%,wood : 20 %,rest (mainly coal):some 60 %.
:at the end of the war : oil :15 %,woor : 50 %,rest : 35 %

In 1949 the CIA was giving an estimate of the requirements of refined oil by the principal Soviet consumers:

Peace : military : 4.8 million ton ( = 15 %)
: others : 25.1 million ton (= 85 %)

War : military :13.1 million (= 39 %)

: others : 20.7 million ( = 61 %)


My guess is that in WWII the part of the oil consumption by the military was lower than the CIA estimates for 1949.


Conclusion : the economic importance of Stalingrad was probably the usual inflated balloon .
I am somewhat intrigued by a couple of comments there:
1) Why weren't Kuban resources heading East as the region was not in German hands until late November 1942 so at the time of Hitlers comments it was still Russian controlled.

2) Even if Baku oil had little impact on Russian operations what effect would the excess oil have had on German operations especially in the south given much shortened supply lines to AGS.
June 25th, 2014  
lljadw
 
From what I have read, the Kuban was already captured by the Germans,with in october 1942,a pro German autonomous government .
June 25th, 2014  
lljadw
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB

2) Even if Baku oil had little impact on Russian operations what effect would the excess oil have had on German operations especially in the south given much shortened supply lines to AGS.
That's something difficult to answer,but my assumption is that the effect would be marginal,because

a)the distance Baku-Stalingrad still was 1200 km(which means 10 days for a train to do going and coming)

b) the problems were not that much the distance,but the railway infrastructure,and how much would the railway Baku-Stalingrad be operational

c) I don't think that one could say that if Baku was captured in august,Stalingrad would fall in october,or that Uranus would be a failure, or that 6th Army could escape from Stalingrad .

d) If Baku was captured in august, what would be its production capacity? AND what would be its refining capacity ?Would Baku not be destroyed and would the Germans have the means AND the manpower to restart production and refining ?Or would the results be the same as in Maikop ? = meaningless .
June 25th, 2014  
JOC
 
 

Topic: repy


The Germans came close to capturing the oilfields at Grozny - Baku but fell shy, before the winter set in. Instead they were bombed to prevent anyone from using them. Germany was very dependent on foreign oil having none of its own and somewhat limited supplies in Hungry and Romania. The Soviets as mentioned had other oil sources although still would find the lack of this oil a bit of a disruption. Hitler lost the ability to make Germany completely oil independent with the losses in the Caucuses, partially due to his obsession with Stalingrad which originally was not the major goal of the offensive Blau. They would never be oil independent with the expensive synthetic oil. Weather the Germans could have held the Caucuses without taking Stalingrad remains to be seen? However for whatever reason they ignored warning about being over extended and having weak flanks and lost at Stalingrad which forced the withdraw of AGS. Remember when we speak of distances most T-34 had to come form the Urals. American lend lease had to cross the U-Boat infested Atlantic ocean.
June 25th, 2014  
JOC
 
 

Topic: Kuban


Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
From what I have read, the Kuban was already captured by the Germans,with in october 1942,a pro German autonomous government .
You are right the Kuban was the location of very viscous fighting in 42 43 and is actually a small province, adjacent to the north eastern shores of the black sea. In 42 it was completely under German control.
June 25th, 2014  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
From what I have read, the Kuban was already captured by the Germans,with in october 1942,a pro German autonomous government .
I agree seems my initial information was wrong as on the 18 Aug 1942 German troops assaulted Novorossiysk and Tuapse on the Black Sea coast in southern Russia and South of the Kuban which means it must have been in German hands.

Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
That's something difficult to answer,but my assumption is that the effect would be marginal,because

a)the distance Baku-Stalingrad still was 1200 km(which means 10 days for a train to do going and coming)

b) the problems were not that much the distance,but the railway infrastructure,and how much would the railway Baku-Stalingrad be operational
All true but they would have had the Volga itself to move supplies which would have taken the stress off rail transport.
 


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