Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
Wall Street Journal
February 12, 2008
Pg. 3
Drawdown From Iraq Could Resume in Fall; Impact on U.S. Election?
By Yochi Dreazen and John D. McKinnon
BAGHDAD -- Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he wants to temporarily halt the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq this summer, a move that is likely to reignite a war debate already stoked by the presidential-nomination campaign.
Mr. Gates said no American forces would leave the country for a short time after July. That is when the last of the 30,000 troops deployed as part of the Bush administration's troop surge return home.
The defense secretary's comments highlight the growing uncertainty about future U.S. troop levels in Iraq. Pausing the withdrawal after the surge troops makes it unlikely that U.S. troop levels will fall much below 130,000, the same number in Iraq when the administration announced plans for the surge one year ago.
An aide to Mr. Gates said troop withdrawals could resume this fall and continue at the pace of one brigade -- about 3,500 troops -- a month. Even if such a drawdown takes place, however, that would leave 115,000 troops or more in Iraq at the end of 2008, despite the country's improved security situation.
The political debate over Iraq was already on the boil because of the rising costs of the war and the Bush administration's recent negotiations with Iraq over a long-term military presence. The Democratic primary has kept Iraq in the public eye even as the surge's success damped the debate in Congress.
"Now people are re-engaged," said Rep. William Delahunt (D., Mass.), chairman of a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that has been holding hearings on the Bush administration's plans in Iraq. One factor has been the Democratic-nomination fight between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, he says, and "the distinction...between Sen. Clinton, who voted for the war, and Sen. Obama, who spoke out clearly and definitively against it."
There are currently 155,000 American troops in Iraq. That number will fall to 130,000 when the surge troops finish redeploying. Mr. Gates and other senior Pentagon officials had expressed hope in recent months that troop levels could fall to 100,000 this year. But with senior U.S. commanders in Iraq opposed to further withdrawals, Mr. Gates said he had come around to the idea of temporarily holding off on further reductions.
"I think that the notion of a brief period of consideration and evaluation probably does make sense," he said during a stop at a military base in southern Baghdad. "One of the keys is how long is that period and what happens next."
Gen. David Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, is set to testify to Congress in April, and aides say he will call for a freeze of at least one month after the last of the surge troops leave Iraq to assess the impact of having 30,000 fewer troops at his disposal. The final decision rests with Mr. Bush.
The president has signaled he will support whatever Gen. Petraeus proposes. Mr. Bush knows that much of his presidential legacy depends on the outcome of the Iraq war.
But the bad news from Iraq could give momentum to new legislative assaults on the White House position, including financial penalties on Iraq for slow political progress, as well as measures aimed at giving U.S. military personnel longer breaks between tours, said Rep. Ike Skelton (D., Mo.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. In addition, efforts to block a long-term security agreement between the Bush administration and Iraq are "one thing you're really going to see Democrats galvanize around," adds Sen. Jim Webb (D., Va.).
In Baghdad, the U.S. military presence is actually likely to grow in coming months, not shrink. Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Hammond, who commands all U.S. forces in the Iraqi capital, said he is planning to increase the number of U.S. outposts across the city by 40% to help the U.S. maintain its security gains. Overall attacks in the city fell 75% between June 2007 and January 2008. Gen. Hammond said he is determined to prevent militants from regaining footholds and supply routes.
A decision to halt the drawdown of U.S. forces could have a significant impact on the presidential campaign. Republican front-runner Sen. John McCain -- who has said he is willing to keep U.S. forces in Iraq for a long time -- may have a hard time defending the unpopular war if troop levels remain high. Democrats, by contrast, will need to decide how strongly to push for resuming the withdrawal in the face of Republican accusations that they are soft on national defense.
Yesterday, Sens. Obama and Clinton both criticized the troop-level decision. "I continue to call on the president to end the war he started, to take [responsibility] for bringing our young men and women home," said Sen. Clinton.
Said Sen. Obama: "We cannot wage war without end in Iraq while ignoring mounting costs to our troops and their families, our security and our economy." An Obama campaign aide said the senator will likely push for time limits on troop deployments, similar to the unsuccessful efforts last year led by Sen. Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat.
--Gina Chon contributed to this article.
February 12, 2008
Pg. 3
Drawdown From Iraq Could Resume in Fall; Impact on U.S. Election?
By Yochi Dreazen and John D. McKinnon
BAGHDAD -- Defense Secretary Robert Gates said he wants to temporarily halt the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq this summer, a move that is likely to reignite a war debate already stoked by the presidential-nomination campaign.
Mr. Gates said no American forces would leave the country for a short time after July. That is when the last of the 30,000 troops deployed as part of the Bush administration's troop surge return home.
The defense secretary's comments highlight the growing uncertainty about future U.S. troop levels in Iraq. Pausing the withdrawal after the surge troops makes it unlikely that U.S. troop levels will fall much below 130,000, the same number in Iraq when the administration announced plans for the surge one year ago.
An aide to Mr. Gates said troop withdrawals could resume this fall and continue at the pace of one brigade -- about 3,500 troops -- a month. Even if such a drawdown takes place, however, that would leave 115,000 troops or more in Iraq at the end of 2008, despite the country's improved security situation.
The political debate over Iraq was already on the boil because of the rising costs of the war and the Bush administration's recent negotiations with Iraq over a long-term military presence. The Democratic primary has kept Iraq in the public eye even as the surge's success damped the debate in Congress.
"Now people are re-engaged," said Rep. William Delahunt (D., Mass.), chairman of a House Foreign Affairs subcommittee that has been holding hearings on the Bush administration's plans in Iraq. One factor has been the Democratic-nomination fight between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, he says, and "the distinction...between Sen. Clinton, who voted for the war, and Sen. Obama, who spoke out clearly and definitively against it."
There are currently 155,000 American troops in Iraq. That number will fall to 130,000 when the surge troops finish redeploying. Mr. Gates and other senior Pentagon officials had expressed hope in recent months that troop levels could fall to 100,000 this year. But with senior U.S. commanders in Iraq opposed to further withdrawals, Mr. Gates said he had come around to the idea of temporarily holding off on further reductions.
"I think that the notion of a brief period of consideration and evaluation probably does make sense," he said during a stop at a military base in southern Baghdad. "One of the keys is how long is that period and what happens next."
Gen. David Petraeus, the top American commander in Iraq, is set to testify to Congress in April, and aides say he will call for a freeze of at least one month after the last of the surge troops leave Iraq to assess the impact of having 30,000 fewer troops at his disposal. The final decision rests with Mr. Bush.
The president has signaled he will support whatever Gen. Petraeus proposes. Mr. Bush knows that much of his presidential legacy depends on the outcome of the Iraq war.
But the bad news from Iraq could give momentum to new legislative assaults on the White House position, including financial penalties on Iraq for slow political progress, as well as measures aimed at giving U.S. military personnel longer breaks between tours, said Rep. Ike Skelton (D., Mo.), chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. In addition, efforts to block a long-term security agreement between the Bush administration and Iraq are "one thing you're really going to see Democrats galvanize around," adds Sen. Jim Webb (D., Va.).
In Baghdad, the U.S. military presence is actually likely to grow in coming months, not shrink. Maj. Gen. Jeffrey Hammond, who commands all U.S. forces in the Iraqi capital, said he is planning to increase the number of U.S. outposts across the city by 40% to help the U.S. maintain its security gains. Overall attacks in the city fell 75% between June 2007 and January 2008. Gen. Hammond said he is determined to prevent militants from regaining footholds and supply routes.
A decision to halt the drawdown of U.S. forces could have a significant impact on the presidential campaign. Republican front-runner Sen. John McCain -- who has said he is willing to keep U.S. forces in Iraq for a long time -- may have a hard time defending the unpopular war if troop levels remain high. Democrats, by contrast, will need to decide how strongly to push for resuming the withdrawal in the face of Republican accusations that they are soft on national defense.
Yesterday, Sens. Obama and Clinton both criticized the troop-level decision. "I continue to call on the president to end the war he started, to take [responsibility] for bringing our young men and women home," said Sen. Clinton.
Said Sen. Obama: "We cannot wage war without end in Iraq while ignoring mounting costs to our troops and their families, our security and our economy." An Obama campaign aide said the senator will likely push for time limits on troop deployments, similar to the unsuccessful efforts last year led by Sen. Jim Webb, a Virginia Democrat.
--Gina Chon contributed to this article.