General Says Iraq Must Boost Its Essential Services

Team Infidel

Forum Spin Doctor
USA Today
September 30, 2008
Pg. 1

Mending rifts also crucial to progress
By Jim Michaels, USA Today
BAGHDAD — Dramatic security gains made in Iraq over the past year could be jeopardized if its government doesn't improve essential services such as electricity and bring together rival political and religious factions, the new top U.S. commander in Iraq said Monday.
"They're working toward this, but if they don't do this, the citizens over time will … potentially start to move against the government," Gen. Ray Odierno said.
"What has happened is they have rejected al-Qaeda, but if the government fails them, what would happen?" he said.
Odierno told USA TODAY he was confident he could recommend pulling more U.S. troops from Iraq next year but called for a cautious, "deliberate" approach "to make sure that we don't step backwards."
Odierno replaced Gen. David Petraeus as the commanding general of U.S. forces here in a ceremony this month. Odierno was Petraeus' No. 2 in Iraq before returning to the USA in February. The two executed the strategy that added 30,000 troops to Iraq and helped reduce violence over the past year. Petraeus now leads the U.S. Central Command.
"In 2006, it was a failed state," Odierno said of Iraq. "In 2008, it's a fragile state. We've got to move it to a stable state."
Odierno takes command as the American public grows weary of the war and President Bush is preparing to leave office. Republican John McCain backed the White House's latest strategy, which also deployed troops in smaller outposts in neighborhoods to protect Iraqi civilians. Democrat Barack Obama has advocated withdrawing U.S. forces in Iraq over 16 months while increasing forces in Afghanistan.
Odierno's first assessment about extra troop cuts could come early next year after a new president is elected, the general said.
"My experience tells me that whoever the new administration is, they will listen to what we have to say," he said. "They will then conduct their own assessment. … I feel comfortable with that."
About 80% of Iraq is stable or secure, said Odierno in his office in the U.S. Embassy, once a palace for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
Provincial elections next year could shift the balance of political power, giving more influence to Sunnis who mostly sat out local elections in 2005. National elections later in the year could transfer power to new national leaders.
"We have to make sure that we have the forces on the ground to make sure those things happen in a proper way," Odierno said. There are about 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq. The White House recently announced plans to draw down by about 8,000 troops early next year.
Another test will come this week, when Iraq's government begins taking over responsibility for the mostly Sunni local defense groups, which had been organized and funded by the U.S. military. Some groups have expressed concern that the Shiite-dominated government will dismantle them or refuse to pay them.
Interview excerpts (USAToday.com)
Gen. Ray Odierno, the new commanding general for U.S. forces in Iraq, talked Monday in a wide-ranging interview in his office at the U.S. Embassy, housed in a former palace of Saddam Hussein.
Looking ahead
"Clearly we have improved security. However, to make it more durable there's a few things we have to do. One is we have to continue to get a national vision. Iraqis have to have a national vision and they have to have more political accommodation across the board. ... The Iraqi government has to be able to deliver consistent services. ... Electricity is probably the most important. They're working toward this, but if they don't do this the citizens over time will potentially start to move against the government if they have to wait too much longer for services or if they don't see progress in services.
"Although al-Qaeda has been degraded, they still have capacity and they will always try to increase their capacity. So the most important thing is you have to make sure that the population does not provide the passive support to al-Qaeda. What has happened is they have rejected al-Qaeda, but if the government fails them, what would happen? And that's one of the concerns. That's why the next step are these issues such as delivering services, political accommodation, reconciliation. Those all become very important to make sure that we move beyond fragile."
Iraqis in the lead
"What I've really come in and told the commanders on the ground is that in '07 and the beginning of '08, the first half of '08, we were really focused on ... improving security, reducing attacks. Now we're moving toward trying to help the Iraqis now achieve full sovereignty."
Troop reductions
"As we look to the future, do I think we'll be able to further reduce in '09? I do. If we currently go along the path we're going I think we'll be able to do further reductions. ...
"We have to make sure that those (provincial) elections occur and obviously they're both perceived and actually free and fair elections. ... Second, is at the end of the year there's going to be national elections. ... Those are two very key pieces as we move forward in my mind, moving from a fragile to a more stable Iraqi government.
"I think it's important to watch the aftermath of those elections. So we have to make sure that we have the forces on the ground to make sure those things happen in a proper way. I believe if things continue along, we'll be able to continue to reduce our presence. But I believe it has to be done deliberately. We have to do it carefully to make sure that we don't step backwards. Because there will be many people who are trying to influence and exert their control if they see any seams, whether it be al-Qaeda or whether it be (Shiite) special groups supported by other countries."
Making recommendations to a new administration
"My job is I have a mission. I provide a recommendation on that mission. I provide to whoever the new administration is my recommendation.
"And in my mind the choices aren't that stark where I would have to say, 'Oh my God, I can't do this.' I'll do whatever I can. My experience tells me that whoever the new administration is they will listen to what we have to say. They will then conduct their own assessment. We will move on from there. I feel comfortable with that."
Iran's role
"I find it very interesting that let's take the security arrangement we're now currently negotiating, where they're clearly trying to influence the outcome of that security arrangement. They continue to want to ... meddle in internal Iraqi politics. They want to meddle in internal Iraqi decisions. They want to try to have influence. They want to control the outcome. They don't, in my opinion, want Iraq to move forward as a fully sovereign nation.
"It's clear they're still supporting some lethal aspects of what's going on here in Iraq through training and funding and equipping. They've toned it down a bit, but they're still doing it. ... They dial it up and down. The support to groups has probably been a bit less than it was in 2007 and the beginning of 2008. We encourage that. We applaud that they reduced their support. However, they have not stopped completely."
Enemy tactics
"What we're seeing is a change in tactics by both al-Qaeda and the (Shiite) special groups or the special rogue elements that have been trained in Iran. What you're seeing is they are conducting intimidation assassinations against (Iraqi) government officials. ... They've been unsuccessful in the other ways they've tried to influence. Their attacks on the population have backfired, both on al-Qaeda and special groups.
"Al-Qaeda has been rejected. The militias have been rejected inside of Iraq. ... It's very low levels. I don't want to exaggerate the threat but it is out there and it is occurring."
Al-Qaeda presence in Iraq
"The foreign fighter flow into Iraq has significantly decreased. Many of their safe havens have been eliminated, but they're still here. They currently are up in northern Iraq in much smaller numbers, less support, much less safe areas. But they are still here. What concerns me is if we take a step backwards and ... we lose the population, because we don't have political accommodation because we're not able to provide the services, that could push them back toward providing support to al-Qaeda.
"We have seen the flow of foreign fighters decrease here. Have they maybe temporarily refocused on Afghanistan? Maybe. That doesn't mean they would not refocus here again if they saw an opportunity.
"I would say around 80% or more (of Iraq is stable). I hate putting percentages on it, but all of the south is for the most part going very well. Anbar province is going well. I would say a large portion of Baghdad is going very well. Even Diyala province has improved significantly. Still have some minor problems in Diyala province. We have problems up in Nineveh province in the north. But beyond that I think for the most part the security is moving forward fairly well."
Fragile state
"In 2006 it was a failed state. In 2008 it's a fragile state. We've got to move it to a stable state. That has to do with making sure the Iraqi security forces can do this on their own. Although security is good, we are doing an awful lot behind the scenes with the Iraqi security forces. What we want to do is reduce that dependence. We want to continue to build their capacity. The Iraqi government has to provide the services and we have to have political accommodation across the board."
American public
"What's good is I think the American public realizes we've made some progress over here. What I worry about is they don't realize how that it could move backwards if we're not careful. What I would tell them is we are making progress, it is fragile process. We have a very good plan I believe to continue to move forward. We're going to turn more over to the Iraqis. We'll deliberately and slowly reduce our presence here to make sure that we don't lose the gains that we've had and I think that will contribute to the overall security of our nation. ... I want it to based on conditions on the ground. That doesn't mean we can't do it in a relatively short time period, but it's got to be based on conditions.
"We have moved faster than we thought we would have. When we built our plan in 2007 for the surge I will tell you it has moved faster than we thought it would. ... People get afraid of the word "conditions" because they think that means it's going to drag it out. But I'm telling you conditions could make it speed up as well."
Making recommendations
"The current reduction that's been announced will be completed in January or early February. The provincial elections will occur in January. I will look sometime after that period to see what happens after the provincial elections, what happens after we further reduce the 8,000. At that time I think it will be time for me to do a reassessment. ...What I would like to do is probably do it in 6-month to 12-month increments. For example, sometimes in early 2009 make a recommendation where we might be in the summer of 2009."
 
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