General Charts Iraq Capability

Team Infidel

Forum Spin Doctor
Chicago Tribune
January 18, 2008 Says at least 10 years before nation can defend its borders
By Aamer Madhani, Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON—Iraqi officials have indicated that they cannot take full responsibility for internal security in their country until as late as 2012 and that it could be 10 more years before Iraqi security forces are able to properly defend their own borders, a senior U.S. commander told a House panel Thursday.
Lt. Gen. James Dubik, who heads the Multi-National Security Transition Command, said Defense Minister Abdul-Qader al-Obeidi has repeatedly told him that Iraqi forces need to significantly boost their air and fire support before they would be able to properly defend themselves.
Dubik told the House Armed Services Committee that the Iraqi security forces have made much progress, but "the truth is that they simply cannot fix, supply, arm or fuel themselves completely enough at this point."
In conversations with U.S. commanders, al-Obeidi has estimated that the Iraqis will be able to take responsibility for internal security between 2009 and 2012 and establish proper border security between 2018 and 2020.
Iraqi security forces, which for much of the first four years of the war were largely ineffective, have made great strides in recent months, according to U.S. commanders. Dubik said that Iraq is expected to add 80,000 soldiers and police by the end of 2008.
The Iraqi army, in particular, has made significant progress in developing its leadership, adding 1,300 officers and 9,900 non-commissioned officers over the past year. But Dubik added that there is still a shortage of midlevel officers.
But the dour projection on the Iraqi security forces' readiness caused concern among some lawmakers, who were looking for at least the rough edges of a timeline for U.S. withdrawal. Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (D-Md.) said Americans are looking for clarification of when U.S. troops will finally come home, something that seemed only more uncertain after Dubik's projections.
"I think all Americans would like to have on their refrigerator a chart which they can follow that looks to a time that we can get out," Bartlett said.
Dubik declined to give a date when U.S. forces would be able to pull out.
"Sir, when I talk to my dad about these kinds of things, my advice to him is put no number on the refrigerator," Dubik said.
Lt. Gen. Ray Odierno, the No. 2 commander in Iraq, suggested some U.S. military presence would remain in Iraq for some time, while the size of the American footprint would probably diminish as Iraqi security forces progress. Odierno, who made his comments from Baghdad during a video news conference with Pentagon reporters Thursday, added that Iraq's most significant problem remains in equipping itself.
"I do not see it going that far at all," Odierno said of al-Obeidi's timeline. "I see it happening much quicker. But I do see us having some sort of long-term security relationship at a lower level ... for some period of time that will be determined between the government of Iraq and the government of the United States and our coalition partners."
In violence in Iraq on Thursday, a suicide bomber struck Shiites as worshipers prepared for their most important holiday, killing at least 11 at a mosque in violent Diyala province, The Associated Press reported. The attack came one day after a similar bombing by a woman in a nearby village.
Meanwhile, the U.S. military announced a second major wave of air strikes in a week against Al Qaeda positions southeast of Baghdad. It said 10,000 pounds of munitions were dropped Wednesday.
 
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