So in your opinion, WHEN he does go, mass blood letting will ensue, regardless? I am seriously interested in your opinion, not confronting it.
Personally, I smell fire - no-win fire; fire and chaos. Praying I'm not right, there is always a first time. Meanwhile, shakin' it here Boss.
Given the long history of antagonism between Libya's tribes, this is unlikely to be a harmonious process. It will not be helped either by the weapons that are already circulating among the protesters, suggesting that violence is a serious possibility. While civil war is probably rather exaggerated, conflict and violence are a real possibility. In such a scenario revenge attacks are also likely. Unlike in Tunisia or Egypt, those forces that could have helped to smooth the transition process such as political parties, trades unions, opposition groups or civil society organisations simply do not exist in Libya. Gadhafi created such a personalised system of governing that he left no space for anything beyond himself, his family and the narrow ruling elite, many of whom were drawn from his own tribe, the Qadhadhfa. This personality cult goes some way to explain why Gadhafi is
probably going to fight to the death.
Getting Libya back on its feet will be an unwieldy, and probably fractious, process in which many scores are settled against those who once supported the Gadhafi regime. But the problem is, of course, that much like in the former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe, virtually everyone at one point or another had to deal with the regime to survive. Unless political authority can be restored quickly, the sorting out of claims will undoubtedly be a bloody affair in light of the pent-up frustration that is now being released.
In Rebel-controlled areas, some sort of authority has been exercised by citizen committees, largely consisting of lawyers, doctors, tribal elders and army officers. Libya's best hope may lie in these figures, who in conjunction with representatives from other walks of Libyan life may be able to smooth the way after Gaddafi.
These representatives would include members of the opposition abroad, pro-reform intellectuals and members of the formal religious establishment who were quick to support the protesters in the early days. Such a collection of figures would need to work closely with tribal leaders to try to safeguard the country.