Gaddafi vowed to defend his country

[Seehund]

If he had stepped down, why would the field not have been left to the insurgents, unopposed, in the immediate aftermath, in your opinion?

Because the insurgents are bound together by hostility to Gadhafi and nothing else. There are more than 140 tribes and clans in Libya and some of them benefited from the fact that Gadhafi was in power. So once Gadhafi goes, there would be competition for power and influence between these key tribes.

 

[Seehund]

I think while well thought out you have fallen into the age old trap of "paralysis by analysis" we can go through the "what if's" until hell freezes over but the fact is that you have a leader who is at best a reformed terrorist but more likely a good liar who is now happily killing his own people who for the most part want him gone.

There you are wrong. To plan a military operation is a long list of “what if”.

What do we do if the opponent does A
What do we do if the opponent does B
What do we do if the opponent does C………Z

Once the music starts, there are so many unknown factors that come into play.

As for the coalition owning Libya I think that is somewhat inaccurate as the coalition could call off operations tomorrow, Qaddafi will kill off a few thousand opposition and then be back selling oil within a week.

If you are interfering in a fight, you have also taken up the responsibility for the outcome.

What the West has to decide is what its end goal is and despite all the hand wringing there is only two option:
1) Leave Qaddafi there.
2) Trust the rebels and get rid of him.

There are no other permeations so take ya pick.

Seriously! Is it really so simple? Wow!

We have argued for years that the only way to bring peace to the middle east is through the application of democracy, now we have several movements that are prepared stand up and fight for it and the first thing we do is break into a cold sweat over getting involved, if there was ever a time to assist them this is it...

Do you remember that the same international community that condemned Saddam Hussein as a brutal dictator quite easily turned to condemn the United States both for deposing him and for the steps its military took in trying to deal with the subsequent insurgency. It is not difficult to imagine a situation where there is extended Libyan resistance to the occupying force followed by international condemnation of the counterinsurgency effort.

...and if it turns out that we made a bad choice so what they can't be much worse than the crazy bastards that are in power there now.

Never say never!

But time will tell. Right now the door is open to all possibilities.

 

[Del Boy]

Because the insurgents are bound together by hostility to Gadhafi and nothing else. There are more than 140 tribes and clans in Libya and some of them benefited from the fact that Gadhafi was in power. So once Gadhafi goes, there would be competition for power and influence between these key tribes.

So in your opinion, WHEN he does go, mass blood letting will ensue, regardless? I am seriously interested in your opinion, not confronting it.

Personally, I smell fire - no-win fire; fire and chaos. Praying I'm not right, there is always a first time. Meanwhile, shakin' it here Boss.

 

[MontyB]

There you are wrong. To plan a military operation is a long list of “what if”.

What do we do if the opponent does A
What do we do if the opponent does B
What do we do if the opponent does C………Z

Once the music starts, there are so many unknown factors that come into play.

True but at some point that list ends if it didn't Henry V would still be sitting at Agincourt adding up the effects of the French coming at him in purple spotted leotards while they rolled past in AMX-30s.

Do you think we are going to be sitting here in 100 years discussing this because the rebels can't defeat him and he wont leave, mean while NATO spend billions a year to hunt down Qaddafi's last T-54?

If you are interfering in a fight, you have also taken up the responsibility for the outcome.


Seriously! Is it really so simple? Wow!

Yeah it is that simple because until you know what your end game is you can not prepare to carry it out, I am almost prepared to bet that if Qaddafi was given an ultimatum to leave he would probably take it.

Do you remember that the same international community that condemned Saddam Hussein as a brutal dictator quite easily turned to condemn the United States both for deposing him and for the steps its military took in trying to deal with the subsequent insurgency. It is not difficult to imagine a situation where there is extended Libyan resistance to the occupying force followed by international condemnation of the counterinsurgency effort.


Never say never!

But time will tell. Right now the door is open to all possibilities.

I think you have that arse backwards to some degree, I doubt you will find anyone that did not know Hussein was a brutal dictator what people condemned the US for was manufacturing reasons to invade and trying to ride rough shod over the UN to do this.

Now this is where Powell's comments about breaking it and buying it come in to play, because you are using them out of context, in most stores if you inadvertently break something you don't always have to buy it, most stores will return it to the supplier for a credit and you move on but if you deliberately break something or break something through lack of due concern they will make you pay for it as a punishment.

The US carried out its actions in Iraq unilaterally and it did so against the wishes of almost everyone else and as such its "punishment" is to put it right and foot the bill for it, to prove this militarily look at the difference in international involvement in Iraq vs Afghanistan.

 

[Seehund]

So in your opinion, WHEN he does go, mass blood letting will ensue, regardless? I am seriously interested in your opinion, not confronting it.

Personally, I smell fire - no-win fire; fire and chaos. Praying I'm not right, there is always a first time. Meanwhile, shakin' it here Boss.

Given the long history of antagonism between Libya's tribes, this is unlikely to be a harmonious process. It will not be helped either by the weapons that are already circulating among the protesters, suggesting that violence is a serious possibility. While civil war is probably rather exaggerated, conflict and violence are a real possibility. In such a scenario revenge attacks are also likely. Unlike in Tunisia or Egypt, those forces that could have helped to smooth the transition process such as political parties, trades unions, opposition groups or civil society organisations simply do not exist in Libya. Gadhafi created such a personalised system of governing that he left no space for anything beyond himself, his family and the narrow ruling elite, many of whom were drawn from his own tribe, the Qadhadhfa. This personality cult goes some way to explain why Gadhafi is probably going to fight to the death.

Getting Libya back on its feet will be an unwieldy, and probably fractious, process in which many scores are settled against those who once supported the Gadhafi regime. But the problem is, of course, that much like in the former Soviet satellites in Eastern Europe, virtually everyone at one point or another had to deal with the regime to survive. Unless political authority can be restored quickly, the sorting out of claims will undoubtedly be a bloody affair in light of the pent-up frustration that is now being released.

In Rebel-controlled areas, some sort of authority has been exercised by citizen committees, largely consisting of lawyers, doctors, tribal elders and army officers. Libya's best hope may lie in these figures, who in conjunction with representatives from other walks of Libyan life may be able to smooth the way after Gaddafi. These representatives would include members of the opposition abroad, pro-reform intellectuals and members of the formal religious establishment who were quick to support the protesters in the early days. Such a collection of figures would need to work closely with tribal leaders to try to safeguard the country.

 

[Del Boy]

Your description matches my own. Some expert opinion suggests that the current upheaval across the region could take 3 generations/80 years to arrive at a reasonable absorbtion level into democracy as we know it; and they see this as perhaps the most favourable of the outcomes. Extremism in the region hopefully would have faded over such a period of time.

I doubt that our interventions will be seen as beneficial.

 

[mmarsh]

Italian journalists are saying French Secret Service had a plan to oust Gaddafi since late last year.

This site tranlate it to English.
http://www.voltairenet.org/article169069.html

I cant say if its true or not but I do know that the French had a long standing score to settle with the Libyan madman as he was deemed responsible for a variety of terror attacks in North Africa against French targets, including a AIR FRANCE flight back in the 1970s.

So it very well could be true.

 

[LeMask]

I just want to add a little thing about this source of information.

The Voltaire Network is extremely criticized. It's a very "special" source of information, they love conspiracy theories over there, they went very far in the "9/11 was a conspiracy", they sell books talking about how the world is ruled by secret occult organisation like Skull & Bones... They jump hastily to extreme conclusions...

They support freedom of speech and defend the right to express ideas however ridiculous you might judge them... They support somehow Iran & Venezuela's new leadership etc etc...

It's very different from the Western media we know... Well established journalists are at war against this kind of sources.

Well, take time to read a little about this source of information before taking it for granted...

Just a notice. I dont have a well defined opinion about their work.