Surprise secret to soccer appeal

The element of surprise elevates football above other sports
American football, basketball and baseball have millions of followers, but they can't match soccer for sheer excitement, says a team of scientists.

The reason is its element of surprise, claim researchers from Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico, US.

Football is more likely to produce an unexpected result, such as a "giant killer" win in the FA Cup.

Scientists analysed results from more than 300,000 games played over the past century.

They reviewed five sports: ice hockey, football, baseball and basketball in the US, and English football.

The team decided to make unpredictability - how often a leading team is overcome by an opponent with a worse record - the best measure of how exciting a league is.

"If there are no upsets, then every game is predictable and hence boring," co-author Eli Ben-Naim told New Scientist magazine.

The results of the analysis showed that the "upset frequency" was highest for soccer, followed by baseball, hockey, and basketball. American football came last on the list, and so was labelled the least exciting sport.

But there was a twist in the tail.

When the scientists looked only at data from the past 10 years, English Premiership football and baseball swapped places.

One interpretation of the finding might be that soccer has become more predictable in recent years.


http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/4581374.stm

American football lost it's appeal after the Leagues decided that some teams were winning too much and some losing too much, so they juggled the drafts so that bad teams had first draft choice and evened everyone's chances. Another case of political correctness gone awry. Now, the teams are so evenly matched that there's no great plays made anymore. BOOORING!

That's funny Missileer, how then do you suppose the same team has won the Super Bowl game 3 of the last 4 years if the NFL teams are so even?
I would tend not to place too much credendce in the conclusion drawn here. If the only criteria fro excitement in a sport is how often the underdog wins then that's an obviously easy thing to track.
I think that bseball is the most boring because of all the delays during a game. Things like the batters stepping out of the box after every pitch or why does a relief pitcher whose been warming up in the bullpen for several innings need to then warm up on the mound?
At least in soccer there is always movement on the field. The thing about soccer that I find uninteresting is the infrequent scoring. It seems that the teams will battle for hours and the score is 1-0. I know that there are other nuances to watch during a game but are they exciting? I don't know. Besides there a nuances in any game.

Not so odd but here's the real story. I agree that if you can keep a good team with all the salary cap rules, you can have a streak until injuries and salary cap kills your team. In fact, one sports writer compared football after the 90's to major leagur baseball.

http://www.thebatt.com/media/paper65...ww.thebatt.com




Roughly 10 years ago, the powers that be in the NFL instituted some rulebook changes under the title of "parity." Fans of the game are familiar with these changes - the salary cap, that limits the amount of money a tea can spend on its talent, and the scheduling rules which pit the previous season's winning teams against their fellow winners.

Ideally, these changes serve as a means of challenging the strong teams and strengthening the weak. But, in reality, they make it harder for teams to afford to keep their best players and punish teams for winning games by way of harder schedules.
In all the fuss to keep things evenly matched, the long-term effects to the game were not considered fully, and, as a result, the NFL has become the crapshoot that it is today.

Well it seems we agree then that parity in the NFL isn't quite working?
So how do you feel about soccer in camaparison to the excitement of other sports. For that matter which professional sport is the most boring?

Originally Posted by DTop

Well it seems we agree then that parity in the NFL isn't quite working?
So how do you feel about soccer in camaparison to the excitement of other sports. For that matter which professional sport is the most boring?

I didn't care for soccer until I saw a Dallas game in person. I can watch a match all day from the bleachers. You can see the fouls, a player getting kicked in the face, and other things you miss on TV. But, to me, baseball is right up there with golf as my least favorite sport.

I think I still can get caught up in the excitement of a good College football game like the Rose bowl last night. UT and USC, a squeaker.

"LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Quarterback Vince Young capped a dazzling performance with a touchdown with 19 seconds to play to rally the Texas Longhorns to an 41-38 upset win over the USC Trojans at the Rose Bowl on Wednesday."

To back up the scientists claim it's the FA cup 3rd round today

A Cup enters giant-killing stage

The third round of the FA Cup kicks off this weekend and has thrown up many intriguing ties.

Arguably, the best of the bunch is Manchester United's potential banana-skin of a match away to Conference side Burton Albion.

Cup holders Arsenal host Championship side Cardiff, while six-times champions Liverpool face a tricky trip to Luton.

Meanwhile, League One side Huddersfield will be looking to spring a shock against Premiership leaders Chelsea.

There will also be comprehensive third-round highlights during Saturday's Match of the Day at 2230 GMT on BBC One and live coverage of the fourth-round draw on Monday 10 December.


Middlesbrough face a testing trip to Conference North's Nuneaton, while Aston Villa travel to Championship strugglers Hull.

"Staying in this division is our priority this season, and a lot more important, but I'm sure everyone at the club would love nothing more than to knock Villa out in front of the television cameras," said Hull defender Sam Collins.


Everton, who have won the Cup five times, will be looking to put their Premiership troubles behind them with victory at the New Den, against Millwall.

Graeme Souness will also be hoping for an easy Saturday for his injury-ravaged Newcastle team as they entertain League Two side Mansfield.


"To get a Premiership club and play in a stadium like Newcastle's in my first year as manager is more than my wildest dreams could have come up with," Mansfield boss Peter Shirtliff told the club website.

"We will be going up there and having a go at competing, and get stuck in. We have nothing to prove so all the pressure will be on them."

Wigan, who are in the semi-finals of the League Cup, will be looking to continue their exceptional season by overcoming Leeds at the JJB Stadium.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/foot...up/4587298.stm

It's the day when lower league teams get to play against the superstars which always throws up a giantkiller.

Originally Posted by DTop

I think that bseball is the most boring because of all the delays during a game. Things like the batters stepping out of the box after every pitch or why does a relief pitcher whose been warming up in the bullpen for several innings need to then warm up on the mound?

Actually, I will make a case for having relief pitchers throw a few pitches on the mound: the mound on the field often is a bit different from the mound in the bullpen, so a pitcher should be able to throw a few pitches just to get a feel for it. However, they definitely do NOT need to throw 8 of 'em (which is what they're currently limited to)...2 or 3 should be plenty.