Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
St. Louis Post-Dispatch
April 7, 2008
Pg. 1
Pentagon now paying heed to retired colonel from O'Fallon, Ill.
By Philip Dine, Post-Dispatch Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON -- As Gen. David Petraeus prepares his critical testimony to Congress this week, one key figure advising him is a retired Army colonel from O'Fallon, Ill., whose Iraq advice the administration once ignored.
Derek Harvey has operated beneath the public radar for the entire Iraq war yet is regarded by many as the single most-informed American on military developments in Iraq. For the past 15 months, as Petraeus' senior civilian adviser, Harvey has been a prime advocate - and architect - of the troop surge and altered policies credited with reducing violence in Iraq.
Harvey says he hopes Petraeus' testimony will give Congress - and the public - a picture of Iraq's improving conditions, including grass-roots citizen participation, despite recent violence in the south.
"What you have is local, town and county governing capacity being reborn, a sense of getting back to normal," Harvey says.
Harvey sees significant advances, even if some are hard to put into numerical terms.
"There has been widespread, and real, progress, in Sunni Arab towns that have rejected al-Qaida, and in accommodation and reconciliation between Shia and Sunnis in Baghdad and in mixed areas of the country," Harvey says.
"One can debate the wisdom of the war and its origins, but that is not the point for me and many who have been involved. It's about the future, how do we make it an acceptable outcome?"
He says there finally is "bottom-up" movement in the right direction, stemming from ordinary Iraqis.
If Harvey now sees cause for hope, for much of the war he has been "pointing out the shortcomings in strategy" that were hindering efforts in Iraq.
Early on, he privately told President George W. Bush and then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that a strong Sunni insurgency was probable, that U.S. leaders didn't understand their adversary and that American forces needed to provide better security for Iraqi civilians as part of a counterinsurgency strategy.
By several accounts, a startled Bush asked Harvey how he could know that the Sunnis were planning a "popular insurrection," when dozens of more-senior officials had given assurances that no such thing would happen. Harvey, who speaks Arabic, responded that he had spent time with sheiks, tribal leaders and Sunni people listening to their anger and plans to retake power after what they saw as Saddam's mismanagement of the war, while advisers painting a rosy picture hadn't done that.
"Harvey is hands down the very best intelligence analyst that the United States government has on Iraq," says former Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Jack Keane. "He has been right from late '03 all the way ... up to the present.
"Not everybody has listened to Harvey, but Gen. Petraeus has, and so he's making a difference," says Keane, who retired but is now a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, an advisory panel.
Petraeus' testimony will play a role in congressional action on war funding and troop levels. Harvey is a 28-year Army veteran who was the Defense Intelligence Agency's top Iraq officer before retiring in 2006. He has been with Petraeus since the general was given command of U.S. forces in Iraq in January 2007.
Harvey, 53, has spent 36 months in Iraq during the war. He returned to Washington several days ago and has fit in time in O'Fallon with his wife and three children. He consented to interviews with the Post-Dispatch over the past few days, his first on-the-record media remarks.
Al-Qaida, which once loomed as a winner in Iraq, has been severely weakened, Harvey says, and what looked like an inevitable war between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq has yielded to growing reconciliation.
Provincial elections this fall "are going to be the key event of 2008 because they will set the political course for the country," he said.
Widespread boycotts of Iraq's first election affected the outcome, but with Sunnis and Shiite Sadrists expected to vote in large number this time, changes in leadership are likely in some provinces, Harvey says.
"The second election in a country is really the test," he says.
Harvey worries about a possible congressional or public focus on the "top-down" benchmarks in Iraq, such as legislation from the Iraqi parliament on oil revenue and other issues.
"People are looking for a magic piece of legislation in Iraq that everyone can point to and think we've reached some type of nirvana," he says. "It's not going to happen that way."
But Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., says benchmarks are important.
"The Iraqi government established themselves how they should be judged - and they are failing the test," says Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, where Petraeus will testify Wednesday.
While recognizing the recent military success, Skelton adds: "The Iraqi government has not taken advantage of the surge to pass laws that are necessary for reconciliation in the country. I'm very disappointed about that. I intend to ask Gen. Petraeus about that."
Even critics of the Iraq war place stock in what Harvey says, given his track record of having "spoken truth to power" when few others were doing so.
Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., of the Senate Armed Services Committee, says he has requested several briefings from Harvey because of his "unusually thoughtful insights into Iraq. He is somebody who works very, very hard to untangle all the nuances, and is always in my view prepared to step back and examine the assumptions, a critical feature for an analyst."
Harvey has done doctoral-level Middle East studies, and while serving at U.S. Transportation Command at Scott Air Force Base before 9/11, he worked on the threat posed to the United States by Afghanistan, the Taliban and Osama bin Laden.
Harvey was denied promotion to the rank of a one- or two-star general, leading to his retirement, which former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, calls "a travesty" and "a sign of the continuing failure of the Army to adopt priorities that fit the modern world."
Gingrich says both Gen. John Abizaid and Gen. George Casey, when they led U.S. forces in Iraq, told him that Harvey "was the most knowledgeable person on Iraq that we had."
"He retired as a colonel... and yet he goes back again and again to Iraq to continue to determine plans for victory," Gingrich said, calling Harvey's efforts "simply stunning."
Harvey credits Petraeus' leadership, which he says is "why people like me have been willing to sacrifice."
April 7, 2008
Pg. 1
Pentagon now paying heed to retired colonel from O'Fallon, Ill.
By Philip Dine, Post-Dispatch Washington Bureau
WASHINGTON -- As Gen. David Petraeus prepares his critical testimony to Congress this week, one key figure advising him is a retired Army colonel from O'Fallon, Ill., whose Iraq advice the administration once ignored.
Derek Harvey has operated beneath the public radar for the entire Iraq war yet is regarded by many as the single most-informed American on military developments in Iraq. For the past 15 months, as Petraeus' senior civilian adviser, Harvey has been a prime advocate - and architect - of the troop surge and altered policies credited with reducing violence in Iraq.
Harvey says he hopes Petraeus' testimony will give Congress - and the public - a picture of Iraq's improving conditions, including grass-roots citizen participation, despite recent violence in the south.
"What you have is local, town and county governing capacity being reborn, a sense of getting back to normal," Harvey says.
Harvey sees significant advances, even if some are hard to put into numerical terms.
"There has been widespread, and real, progress, in Sunni Arab towns that have rejected al-Qaida, and in accommodation and reconciliation between Shia and Sunnis in Baghdad and in mixed areas of the country," Harvey says.
"One can debate the wisdom of the war and its origins, but that is not the point for me and many who have been involved. It's about the future, how do we make it an acceptable outcome?"
He says there finally is "bottom-up" movement in the right direction, stemming from ordinary Iraqis.
If Harvey now sees cause for hope, for much of the war he has been "pointing out the shortcomings in strategy" that were hindering efforts in Iraq.
Early on, he privately told President George W. Bush and then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld that a strong Sunni insurgency was probable, that U.S. leaders didn't understand their adversary and that American forces needed to provide better security for Iraqi civilians as part of a counterinsurgency strategy.
By several accounts, a startled Bush asked Harvey how he could know that the Sunnis were planning a "popular insurrection," when dozens of more-senior officials had given assurances that no such thing would happen. Harvey, who speaks Arabic, responded that he had spent time with sheiks, tribal leaders and Sunni people listening to their anger and plans to retake power after what they saw as Saddam's mismanagement of the war, while advisers painting a rosy picture hadn't done that.
"Harvey is hands down the very best intelligence analyst that the United States government has on Iraq," says former Army Vice Chief of Staff Gen. Jack Keane. "He has been right from late '03 all the way ... up to the present.
"Not everybody has listened to Harvey, but Gen. Petraeus has, and so he's making a difference," says Keane, who retired but is now a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, an advisory panel.
Petraeus' testimony will play a role in congressional action on war funding and troop levels. Harvey is a 28-year Army veteran who was the Defense Intelligence Agency's top Iraq officer before retiring in 2006. He has been with Petraeus since the general was given command of U.S. forces in Iraq in January 2007.
Harvey, 53, has spent 36 months in Iraq during the war. He returned to Washington several days ago and has fit in time in O'Fallon with his wife and three children. He consented to interviews with the Post-Dispatch over the past few days, his first on-the-record media remarks.
Al-Qaida, which once loomed as a winner in Iraq, has been severely weakened, Harvey says, and what looked like an inevitable war between Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq has yielded to growing reconciliation.
Provincial elections this fall "are going to be the key event of 2008 because they will set the political course for the country," he said.
Widespread boycotts of Iraq's first election affected the outcome, but with Sunnis and Shiite Sadrists expected to vote in large number this time, changes in leadership are likely in some provinces, Harvey says.
"The second election in a country is really the test," he says.
Harvey worries about a possible congressional or public focus on the "top-down" benchmarks in Iraq, such as legislation from the Iraqi parliament on oil revenue and other issues.
"People are looking for a magic piece of legislation in Iraq that everyone can point to and think we've reached some type of nirvana," he says. "It's not going to happen that way."
But Rep. Ike Skelton, D-Mo., says benchmarks are important.
"The Iraqi government established themselves how they should be judged - and they are failing the test," says Skelton, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee, where Petraeus will testify Wednesday.
While recognizing the recent military success, Skelton adds: "The Iraqi government has not taken advantage of the surge to pass laws that are necessary for reconciliation in the country. I'm very disappointed about that. I intend to ask Gen. Petraeus about that."
Even critics of the Iraq war place stock in what Harvey says, given his track record of having "spoken truth to power" when few others were doing so.
Sen. Jack Reed, D-R.I., of the Senate Armed Services Committee, says he has requested several briefings from Harvey because of his "unusually thoughtful insights into Iraq. He is somebody who works very, very hard to untangle all the nuances, and is always in my view prepared to step back and examine the assumptions, a critical feature for an analyst."
Harvey has done doctoral-level Middle East studies, and while serving at U.S. Transportation Command at Scott Air Force Base before 9/11, he worked on the threat posed to the United States by Afghanistan, the Taliban and Osama bin Laden.
Harvey was denied promotion to the rank of a one- or two-star general, leading to his retirement, which former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board, calls "a travesty" and "a sign of the continuing failure of the Army to adopt priorities that fit the modern world."
Gingrich says both Gen. John Abizaid and Gen. George Casey, when they led U.S. forces in Iraq, told him that Harvey "was the most knowledgeable person on Iraq that we had."
"He retired as a colonel... and yet he goes back again and again to Iraq to continue to determine plans for victory," Gingrich said, calling Harvey's efforts "simply stunning."
Harvey credits Petraeus' leadership, which he says is "why people like me have been willing to sacrifice."