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Baltimore Sun
February 16, 2008 Orbital estimates show flybys observable from Baltimore over the course of next week
By Frank D. Roylance, Sun reporter
While the Pentagon mobilizes for an attempt to shoot down a falling spy satellite before it becomes a hazard to people on the ground, Marylanders will have several opportunities in the coming days to see the errant hardware as it soars up the East Coast.
It might be the last chance anyone has to see USA-193. Some estimates say the satellite will fall into the atmosphere within the next three weeks if it is not destroyed. Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said a weeklong window of opportunity to shoot it down will open this weekend.
Christina Rocca, U.S ambassador to the Geneva-based Conference on Disarmament, said, "If the engagement fails, the satellite is expected to make an uncontrolled re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere on or about 6 March 2008 in any region on the Earth's surface between 58.5 degrees north and 58.5 degrees south latitudes," according to a report on SpaceDaily.com.
Orbital predictions for USA-193, gleaned from the Heavens-Above.com Web site, include one evening pass visible from Baltimore each night for the next week - through Friday.
At least four of those flyovers should be high enough above the horizon to be seen without too much difficulty. But the weather will be iffy on several evenings.
The other issue will be the satellite's magnitude, or brightness. Predicted magnitudes for the four best passes by USA-193 range from 1.4 and 2.7 - similar to some of the brighter stars of the winter sky, but not the brightest. Dark skies away from urban light pollution will make the satellite easier to spot.
USA-193 should look like a small, unblinking star, moving briskly from one horizon to another, crossing the sky in four or five minutes. If an object has blinking, multiple or colored lights, it is an airplane, not the satellite.
Here are the predictions for the four most favorable flybys. They may prove to be off by several minutes because of the satellite's decaying orbit, so allow for extra time on either end of the predictions, especially for those passes at the end of the sequence.
The first pass high enough to be easily tracked will come Sunday evening. The weather forecast was poor, however, with an 80 percent chance of showers.
But, if the clouds part, look for the spy satellite to rise above the southern horizon at 6:28 p.m., climbing to a little less than a third of the way up the southeastern sky by 6:30 p.m. It will skim just above the bright star Sirius before racing off toward the eastern horizon, disappearing there at 6:31 p.m.
Monday night's forecast is also doubtful - mostly cloudy. But, just in case, look for USA-193 to rise above the southern horizon at 6:22 p.m., climbing higher this time - rising 56 degrees (more than halfway up) into the southeastern sky and passing just above Orion at 6:24 p.m. before sliding off toward the northeast and vanishing at 6:26 p.m.
Tuesday evening's pass could be the best of the batch. The forecast from this distance is excellent - clear skies.
Look for the satellite to rise from the southwest at 6:15 p.m., climbing swiftly to more than 70 degrees above the northwestern horizon at 6:17. It will fly above the constellation Cassiopeia, then head toward the northeast, disappearing at 6:20 p.m.
The last convenient flyby during the coming week will come Wednesday evening. The satellite will rise above the western horizon at 6:08 p.m., climbing to about a third of the way up the northwestern horizon at 6:10 p.m. It will pass below Cassiopeia this time before disappearing at 6:14 p.m.
February 16, 2008 Orbital estimates show flybys observable from Baltimore over the course of next week
By Frank D. Roylance, Sun reporter
While the Pentagon mobilizes for an attempt to shoot down a falling spy satellite before it becomes a hazard to people on the ground, Marylanders will have several opportunities in the coming days to see the errant hardware as it soars up the East Coast.
It might be the last chance anyone has to see USA-193. Some estimates say the satellite will fall into the atmosphere within the next three weeks if it is not destroyed. Gen. James Cartwright, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has said a weeklong window of opportunity to shoot it down will open this weekend.
Christina Rocca, U.S ambassador to the Geneva-based Conference on Disarmament, said, "If the engagement fails, the satellite is expected to make an uncontrolled re-entry into the Earth's atmosphere on or about 6 March 2008 in any region on the Earth's surface between 58.5 degrees north and 58.5 degrees south latitudes," according to a report on SpaceDaily.com.
Orbital predictions for USA-193, gleaned from the Heavens-Above.com Web site, include one evening pass visible from Baltimore each night for the next week - through Friday.
At least four of those flyovers should be high enough above the horizon to be seen without too much difficulty. But the weather will be iffy on several evenings.
The other issue will be the satellite's magnitude, or brightness. Predicted magnitudes for the four best passes by USA-193 range from 1.4 and 2.7 - similar to some of the brighter stars of the winter sky, but not the brightest. Dark skies away from urban light pollution will make the satellite easier to spot.
USA-193 should look like a small, unblinking star, moving briskly from one horizon to another, crossing the sky in four or five minutes. If an object has blinking, multiple or colored lights, it is an airplane, not the satellite.
Here are the predictions for the four most favorable flybys. They may prove to be off by several minutes because of the satellite's decaying orbit, so allow for extra time on either end of the predictions, especially for those passes at the end of the sequence.
The first pass high enough to be easily tracked will come Sunday evening. The weather forecast was poor, however, with an 80 percent chance of showers.
But, if the clouds part, look for the spy satellite to rise above the southern horizon at 6:28 p.m., climbing to a little less than a third of the way up the southeastern sky by 6:30 p.m. It will skim just above the bright star Sirius before racing off toward the eastern horizon, disappearing there at 6:31 p.m.
Monday night's forecast is also doubtful - mostly cloudy. But, just in case, look for USA-193 to rise above the southern horizon at 6:22 p.m., climbing higher this time - rising 56 degrees (more than halfway up) into the southeastern sky and passing just above Orion at 6:24 p.m. before sliding off toward the northeast and vanishing at 6:26 p.m.
Tuesday evening's pass could be the best of the batch. The forecast from this distance is excellent - clear skies.
Look for the satellite to rise from the southwest at 6:15 p.m., climbing swiftly to more than 70 degrees above the northwestern horizon at 6:17. It will fly above the constellation Cassiopeia, then head toward the northeast, disappearing at 6:20 p.m.
The last convenient flyby during the coming week will come Wednesday evening. The satellite will rise above the western horizon at 6:08 p.m., climbing to about a third of the way up the northwestern horizon at 6:10 p.m. It will pass below Cassiopeia this time before disappearing at 6:14 p.m.