Enigma Machines - Page 10




 
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January 19th, 2016  
JOC
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
John Keegan wrote in his book Intelligence in War that cracking the code played a very large part in allowing the Allies to counter the U-boat menace and defeating the Luftwaffe. Yes, Ultra and Bletchley Park played a large role and certainly saved lives through their efforts but most likely the war could have been won without them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
You may want to take it up with sir John Keegan as he wrote it I just copied and pasted, however I recommend using a good medium.
I Fail to understand the logic in this duality? Observe my previous post which clearly indicates that Enigma was a tool used in the allied victory over Nazi Germany, not the sole reason for the victory.

During World War II, the Germans used the Enigma and Lorenz cipher machines, to develop nearly unbreakable codes for sending secret messages. The Enigma's settings offered 150,000,000,000,000,000,000 possible solutions, yet the Allies were eventually able to crack its code. Quite a feat in this pre-digital age.

It's been claimed that the work at Bletchley Park shortened the war by 2 years, which could have effected the wars outcome. Ref: Sir Harry Hinsley “The Influence of Ultra in the Second World War”
January 19th, 2016  
lljadw
 
As Hinsley worked in BP and was not a neutral observer, he is not a good source .

A lot of the German messages were sent by teleprinter and not by radio .And only a small part of the radio messages were intercepted and decrypted .
January 19th, 2016  
MontyB
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
As Hinsley worked in BP and was not a neutral observer, he is not a good source .

A lot of the German messages were sent by teleprinter and not by radio .And only a small part of the radio messages were intercepted and decrypted .
I think this is the important bit when talking about Enigma and code breaking, radio traffic was just one method of transmitting information and only a small portion of that subset was read.

Don't get me wrong the work that went into breaking the codes from the initial work done by the Poles to its conclusion at Bletchley Park was an impressive effort but in the end we can only say with certainty that it "might" have shortened the war but it definitely did not change the outcome.
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January 19th, 2016  
lljadw
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by MontyB
I think this is the important bit when talking about Enigma and code breaking, radio traffic was just one method of transmitting information and only a small portion of that subset was read.

Don't get me wrong the work that went into breaking the codes from the initial work done by the Poles to its conclusion at Bletchley Park was an impressive effort but in the end we can only say with certainty that it "might" have shortened the war but it definitely did not change the outcome.

An other point is that a lot (most ?) Enigma messages were useless,because to old :while between december 1942 and september 1943 the U Boat code was broken,messages older than 3 days could not be used in the field as the information was to old .

in december 1942 only during 5 days were U Boat codes broken in 2 days or less ;this means that Enigma was only useful during 5 days .

for january : 5 days

february :18 days

march : 8 days

april :12 days

may :9 days

june : 1 day

july :2 days

september : 3 days

If the Enigma messages were that important, we could expect that the merchant ship losses in september would be higher than those in february, but, if I am not wrong,that is not so .

Why ?

Successes of the U Boats depended mostly on chance, on the weather, on the number of available U Boats, on the number of convois, on the speed of the convois, on the strength of the excorts, and the information from Enigma was less important .

Very simply : in 1943 the U Boats were defeated because they were technologically obsolete surface ships .

Last point : what Hinsley said is nonsense : it is not so that without Enigma the war would have lasted til 1947 : the Soviets would have arrived in Berlin in may 1945 OR in august 1945 Berlin would have suffered the fate of Hiroshima .
January 19th, 2016  
JOC
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
An other point is that a lot (most ?) Enigma messages were useless,because to old :while between december 1942 and september 1943 the U Boat code was broken,messages older than 3 days could not be used in the field as the information was to old .

in december 1942 only during 5 days were U Boat codes broken in 2 days or less ;this means that Enigma was only useful during 5 days .

for january : 5 days

february :18 days

march : 8 days

april :12 days

may :9 days

june : 1 day

july :2 days

september : 3 days

If the Enigma messages were that important, we could expect that the merchant ship losses in september would be higher than those in february, but, if I am not wrong,that is not so .

Why ?

Successes of the U Boats depended mostly on chance, on the weather, on the number of available U Boats, on the number of convois, on the speed of the convois, on the strength of the excorts, and the information from Enigma was less important .

Very simply : in 1943 the U Boats were defeated because they were technologically obsolete surface ships .

Last point : what Hinsley said is nonsense : it is not so that without Enigma the war would have lasted til 1947 : the Soviets would have arrived in Berlin in may 1945 OR in august 1945 Berlin would have suffered the fate of Hiroshima .
Bletchley's work was essential to defeating U-bouts in the Battle of the Atlantic, and to the British naval victories in the Battle of Cape Matapan and the Battle of North Cape. In 1941, Ultra exerted a powerful effect on the North African campaign against German forces under General Erwin Romme. General Sir Claude Auchinleck wrote that were it not for Ultra, "Rommel would have certainly got through to Cairo". Prior to the Normandy landing on D-Day in June 1944, the Allies knew the locations of all but two of Germany's fifty-eight Western-front divisions.

You wrongly dismiss esteemed scientist and historian Sir Harry Hinsley. If lend lease had been effected - the Luftwaffe actions not foretold as they often were and allied intelligence wasn’t tipped off about German operations as it was in numerous cases the Soviets would have been slowed considerably. Point being the Reds would likely have been nowhere near Berlin in May of 45.
January 19th, 2016  
lljadw
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JOC
Prior to the Normandy landing on D-Day in June 1944, the Allies knew the locations of all but two of Germany's fifty-eight Western-front divisions.


Point being the Reds would likely have been nowhere near Berlin in May of 45.
1) This is totally irrelevant for the success or failure of Overlord

2)This proves

a ) that your knowledge about the war in the east is serious lacking

b) that you are hibernating ,thinking that the Cold War is still going on .
January 19th, 2016  
JOC
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by lljadw
1) This is totally irrelevant for the success or failure of Overlord

2)This proves

a ) that your knowledge about the war in the east is serious lacking

b) that you are hibernating ,thinking that the Cold War is still going on .
This is so preposterous as to not warrant further debate. I refuse to get into another name calling session with you.
January 20th, 2016  
BritinAfrica
 
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by JOC
This is so preposterous as to not warrant further debate. I refuse to get into another name calling session with you.
I really don't know why you even try to debate with this clown, his views are extremely outlandish with the knowledge of a chocolate teapot.
 


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