Egypt Vs. Israel future Confrontation opinions.

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rOk

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Hi all

I was just thinking what would happen if Egypt were to suddenly attack Israel or vice versa-seeing that they have fairly modern equipment and tactics (US instructors), would the outcome be any different than in the past.

Thanks for your opinion
 
israel wouldnt attack egypt, unless it would be percieved as agressor (like in 6 day war, where egypt, jordan and syria kicked out u.n. and declared they would destroy israel, israel then premptively attacked)

m1a1 might be a great tank, but the egyptians would get hammered by israel, whether it be merkavas or sabras etc... the fact is that unless its a rocket which requires pressing a button only, egypt has no chance, their army is not top notch... and although israel would beat egypt again, the fact that america sold egypt m1a1's will only mean that israel will suffer more casualties...
 
You don't seem to place any importance in new tactics, doctrine and the fact that they outnumber you...and it's not only the m1 here in question, there's a bunch of other equipment from the west too.

I'd say your underestimating the opponent by just a little, wouldn't you?
 
Egypt: 320,000 soldiers, 755 tanks

Israel: 104,000 soldiers, 300,000 more reserves, 1200 tanks, better airforce.

Israel might take heavy losses in the initial contact with Egypt's defense line. It would then smash through and it's all over, Israel would push the Egyptians back just like in the 6 day war.
 
Indeed heavy losses is my opinion also.
But the logical next question would be how much losses in a war of attrition (sp?) can they take-in both manpower and equipment.

Here's something for comparison
EGYPT
Military manpower—availability:
males age 15-49: 17,756,706 (1999 est.)

Military manpower—fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 11,507,058 (1999 est.)

Military manpower—reaching military age annually:
males: 694,468 (1999 est.)

ISRAEL
Military manpower - availability:
males age 15-49: 1,522,003
females age 15-49: 1,482,027 (2001 est.)

Military manpower - fit for military service:
males age 15-49: 1,245,757
females age 15-49: 1,208,973 (2001 est.)

Military manpower - reaching military age annually:
males: 49,206
females: 53,379 (2001 est.)

Do you see the big gap in the last category (reaching military age annually)-690.000:50.000
Besides Egypt has some(~1000) M60 tanks around too, they'd be good for bait, apaches, patriot (not sure).
Agreed Israel has similar stuff too, but it's a different ball game now than in the 6 day war (at least on paper)

I'd be worried...
 
Im afraid ill have to lock it now. We dont allow country vs. country discussions, although this is an intresting one....
 
Important, please read:

As an expriment, and with aproval from the admin, I am going to unlock this topic. I want to make sure we are clear about being respectful and on-topic. I will supervise this one closely and make sure it is civilized and rational.

Amit.
 
I don't there will be a possible confrontation between Egypt and Israel at all. 100% positively sure. There is no need for further violence in the middle east. No more and enough. :(
 
someone at Tel Aviv University seems to think Egypt is of little threat to Israel

Oct. 12, 2004
MORNING REPORT
Vol. 6 No. 378

Egypt's Military Poses Little Threat to Israel

TEL AVIV [MENL] -- Egypt's military has failed to exploit its Western
platforms, technology and combat doctrine and poses virtually no threat to Israel, a new study said.

The study by Tel Aviv University's Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies
asserted that Egypt's military continues to operate under the same Soviet
combat and training doctrine as that during the 1973 Arab-Israeli war. Egypt fought the 1973 war with Soviet advisers and weapons. "It [Egypt] is an army that has changed its characteristics, from Eastern to Western platforms," Shlomo Brom, a senior researcher at the
center, said. "But when you see how the army operates, there has been no change."

Egypt, with a force of 450,000 soldiers, about 75 percent of whom
comprise the ground forces, has largely replaced its Soviet arsenal with
U.S. platforms and weapons. Egypt has an air force fleet of about 220 F-16s, 800 M1A1 main battle tanks, Apache attack helicopters and Hawk anti-aircraft batteries -- all procured since 1980.

But the report said Egypt, which receives $1.3 billion in annual U.S.
military aid, has failed to implement the Revolution in
Military Affairs [RMA], meant to exploit the Western superiority in
precision-guided weapons, intelligence and command and control. As a result, Egypt -- despite obtaining many of the same platforms acquired by Israel --has been unable to optimize its battlefield force...

READ MORE
 
alright, lets get going.

Egypt: 320,000 soldiers, 755 tanks

Israel: 104,000 soldiers, 300,000 more reserves, 1200 tanks, better airforce.

Israel might take heavy losses in the initial contact with Egypt's defense line. It would then smash through and it's all over, Israel would push the Egyptians back just like in the 6 day war.

Well, lets start with the tank figure for Egypt. I think its way too low. Richard Bennett, in his book Fighting Forces, wrote the following:

895 T54/55
260 Ramses 11(Mod T55)
550 T62
1700 M60A1/3
555 M1A1

These figures are obviously too high, but I assume that the truth is somewhere in the middle. Lets take the T54/55 and the Ramses 11 out of the game, so, can we settel for somewhere around 2800 tanks?

Ok, now to the IDF troop ammount. You said 104,000. The noumber I hear of most of the time is 130,000. There at last 400,000 reserves. Maybe even 500,000. As to the tank count at 1200, that is absurd. There are at least 2000, and closer to 3000. Lets settle for 2500?

Now, there will be no attrition to count on. A war will take 2-4 weeks at the worst. Israel will never attack Egypt, which means Egypt needs to kick the UN out of Sinai, cross the Suez with its Army(Sinai is demiliterized) and than attack. Can you imagine what the Israeli Air Force will do to such a force? Israel has better planes, and far far better pilots. Now, what ever is left of the Egyptian force will meet a fully mobilized IDF. 11 armored divisons armed with Merkava and Magach tanks, supported by one of the best air forces in the world, and fighting on their own ground....Is somthing that any army would fear. Frankly, I doubt any sane Egyptian leader would attempt such a move. My casualty expectations-
Israel- 7000 dead, 20000 wounded. 300 tanks destroyed, 15 planes shot down.

Egypt- 45000 dead, 120000 wounded. 800 tanks destroyed, practically any aircraft that took up shot down.
 
The One thing that is being lef out right here is the fact that if Egypt Attacked Isreal then most likly Syria,Saudi Arabia and most of the rest of the A.U. would also attack, they would over power Isreal in sheer numbers of cousre, however the technology Isreal has is far more advanced however the A.U could fund a war longer than Isreal could.
 
Well, originally I just wanted to hear your opinion how Egyptian tankers would fare against Israeli tankers with their new weaponry.
 
Well, the Arabs atacked all togather before, and it dient work. And that was a time where Israel dident even have tech superiority.
 
That is also true, However that was when isreal was first founded, now thiey are also many Terrorist groups which will be more than happy to aid in the destruction of an isreal Nation.
 
Dameon, the last time was 1973....well after the PLO was founded...The Palestinians cant take part in a war because they know that if they try that the IDF will take very painfull measures.

Israel had 4 normal wars with Egypt, and one war of atrittion. 2 of these times, the rest of the Arab world was involved. Egypt lost all 5 times....
 
That makes sense.

Egypt can lose as many times as it wants, they'll still be there.

Israel can't afford to lose at all, they lose once, that's it for them.

It's good thing that the only democracy in that area has a great military.
 
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