Most conclusions and advises,even measures that are given risk to be flawed ,as no one knows the number of people who are infected by CV : we know only the revealed, confirmed number ( today 500000 cases and 22000 deaths ) but not the real number than can be a tenfold,and the paradox is that the more people are infected by the virus, the less is the virus lethal .
Other problem is that the measures who the media and the politicians are telling us will solve the crisis,are unlikely to do it (a vaccine will not solve the problem ,neither will do isolation ) and risk to worse the situation by collapsing the economy .
Last point : there is a big possibility that the virus will become seasonal as is the flu .

Originally Posted by lljadw

Most conclusions and advises,even measures that are given risk to be flawed ,as no one knows the number of people who are infected by CV : we know only the revealed, confirmed number ( today 500000 cases and 22000 deaths ) but not the real number than can be a tenfold,and the paradox is that the more people are infected by the virus, the less is the virus lethal .
Other problem is that the measures who the media and the politicians are telling us will solve the crisis,are unlikely to do it (a vaccine will not solve the problem ,neither will do isolation ) and risk to worse the situation by collapsing the economy .
Last point : there is a big possibility that the virus will become seasonal as is the flu .

What the majority of the governments are doing right now when they closing everything might work. This is a novel virus so nobody knows if we get immunity after being infected. Probably we get immunity, but what happens if we don't and it mutates again. It has mutated once already. The problems with using the herd immunity approach are, we don't know if that works and secondly, it will be much harder to protect the elderly and those in the risk groups if the majority of us get the virus. Thirdly, the COVID -19 has a mortality rate of 3%, it doesn't sound much, but apply 3% on the entire population in any given country. That's why the UK changed their approach toward COVID-19.

This seems to be our time to hear the bells.

Two points : old people are the first to die from a virus (CV/flu ) ,because they are very weak ,and isolation will not change this : in Belgium only a minority of old people live in retirement homes, but they constitute 25 % of the deaths .
Isolation is not the solution.
Neither is a vaccine .
About the 3% of infected people the media are telling us that die from infection by CV .
This is not true, not true at all : it is 3% of the revealed, the confirmed cases,and these are only a small part of the real number .
The confirmed cases in Belgium are some 8000 with 289 deaths, this is between 3/4 % of the confirmed cases .
But professor van Ranst , a CV expert, said that it was very possible that 1 million people were infected in Belgium ,the paradox is that the more people are infected , the lower the mortality .
289 deaths on 1 million infections is a mortality of 0,0025 %. Thus meaningless .
Two years ago, the official number of flu infections in the US was 16 million ( 4,5% of the population ) with 33000 deaths ( 1 on 500 cases and 1 on 10000 of the population) ,but the CDC assumes that there were an other 19 million unrecorded flu infections ( IMO a too low figure )which means a total of 35 million cases ( 10% of the population ,but still with 33000 deaths ,who constitute a mortality not of 1 on 500 but of 1 on 1000 only .
The media are panic mongers ( bad news sells, good news does not sell ).
If the confirmed flu cases are only a minority of the total , we can rightly assume that it is the same for the COVID 19 virus .And in both cases, the confirmed cases are the worst,and the hidden ones are the less dangerous .
Most people do never know that they have the flu, and most people do not know that they have the Coronavirus .

Originally Posted by lljadw

Two points : old people are the first to die from a virus (CV/flu ) ,because they are very weak ,and isolation will not change this : in Belgium only a minority of old people live in retirement homes, but they constitute 25 % of the deaths .
Isolation is not the solution.
Neither is a vaccine .
About the 3% of infected people the media are telling us that die from infection by CV .
This is not true, not true at all : it is 3% of the revealed, the confirmed cases,and these are only a small part of the real number .
The confirmed cases in Belgium are some 8000 with 289 deaths, this is between 3/4 % of the confirmed cases .
But professor van Ranst , a CV expert, said that it was very possible that 1 million people were infected in Belgium ,the paradox is that the more people are infected , the lower the mortality .
289 deaths on 1 million infections is a mortality of 0,0025 %. Thus meaningless .
Two years ago, the official number of flu infections in the US was 16 million ( 4,5% of the population ) with 33000 deaths ( 1 on 500 cases and 1 on 10000 of the population) ,but the CDC assumes that there were an other 19 million unrecorded flu infections ( IMO a too low figure )which means a total of 35 million cases ( 10% of the population ,but still with 33000 deaths ,who constitute a mortality not of 1 on 500 but of 1 on 1000 only .
The media are panic mongers ( bad news sells, good news does not sell ).
If the confirmed flu cases are only a minority of the total , we can rightly assume that it is the same for the COVID 19 virus .And in both cases, the confirmed cases are the worst,and the hidden ones are the less dangerous .
Most people do never know that they have the flu, and most people do not know that they have the Coronavirus .

There is a difference between the seasonal flu, usually caused by the A and B type influenza viruses. The vaccination works to lower the mortality rate for the seasonal flu, but flu vaccine doesn't work on the corona strain. This virus as an R-nought higher than the seasonal flu, it is more contagious than SARS and MERS, but those two has a lower R-nought, but a higher mortality rate. We can speculate how many have been infected, but before we get any anti-body test and testing a lot of people we don't know how many who have been infected. Use the numbers confirmed and leave the speculation to amateurs

Vaccinations are working for measles with an R-nought between 14-18, it worked for smallpox, which is now eradicated as a natural occurring disease. Polio is another disease that has been almost eradicated by a huge vaccination program. So saying vaccination doesn't work is wrong. We will get a vaccine for the SARS-CoV-2? Probably not this year, if we are lucky early next year, but most likely in the mid 2021

I did not say that vaccination does not work, I said that vaccination is not the solution, it can help, but in very restricted ways, because you need at least 2 vaccines.
You need one to prevent being infected,and the efficiency of it will be very low,as people will continue to be infected.
You need also one that prevents you to infect some one else,and here also ,the result will be limited .
You need also one that will stop the infection of becoming serious .
Every year there is a new flu vaccine ( based on the flu of the year before) and most people do not get the vaccine,but also do not get the flu .And, there is always the danger that the new flu is different from the old one and that thus the vaccine does not help .In such a case, the results will be very bad. The last flu infected 33 millions of Americans ,and 33000 died .( There are no stats indicating what was the ratio of those with a vaccine that were infected/died against those who were not vaccinated ) .If next winter the flu will mutate, the vaccine will protect no one .
It is the same for Covid 19 : it is possible that it will become seasonal and if it mutates , the antiCoronavirus vaccine will be worthless .
A vaccine does not protect ( very limitedly ) against THE flu, but against one type of flu .
A anti CV vaccine will not protect against Covid 19, but against a type of Covid 19 .
It is the same for the smallpox : some 300 million people died in the 20th century because of the smallpox, but if smallpox mutates, millions will die again .

These are the last figures
Total number of CV cases : 597000
Deaths : 27000 ( 4 % of the total )
Recovered :133000 (ratio deaths-recovered : 1/5 )
Serious cases : 23000
Mild Cases : 413000 ( ratio serious- mild 1-18 )
And this is only the known cases, unknown cases are much more mild.
Without a vaccine ,you have 5 times more chances to recover than to die, and 18 times more chances to have a mild form than to become seriously ill .
Will a vaccine ( one of several that are needed ) have as result that no one will die? That no one will become seriously ill ?
Of course not .
Most people who die without vaccine,will also die with vaccine,because most people survive without a vaccine.
Most people who become seriously ill without vaccine,will also become seriously ill with vaccine ,because most people do not become seriously ill without a vaccine .
I am convinced that it is the same for the flu .60 and 50 years ago, millions died from the Hongkong flu and the Asiatic flu .Not because there was no vaccine .

There are so many things wrong with your two posts. First of all, a vaccine reduce to risk for getting the seasonal flu between 40-60% The type A H1N1 and B flu viruses mutate and there is always a risk for the vaccine for the next year vaccine doesn't match the virus causing the seasonal flu. The vaccination in the US (you like to use the US as a reference) reduced the risk for ICU treatment for adults with 82% (2012-2015)

If you get ill, you don't get a vaccine, you get an anti-viral drug. There are four different type of anti-viral drugs, Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab, and Xofluza.

There are also a difference between the flu viruses causing major epidemics and pandemics and the type A and B viruses causing the seasonal flu. The pandemics you are mentioning were caused by flu virus that mutated more than the seasonal variations. The mutation can also occur when a virus make a spill-over from animals, this process is called zoonosis. About 60% of all diseases are zoonotic. The virus emerging from a process like this is a novel virus and our immune system doesn't recognize it. One process can be when a type A virus and let say a bird virus exchange genes and became more contagious. It happened with the Spanish Flu (the worst of them all), the Asian Flu, and the Hong Kong Flu. It is still a type A virus, but different from all other flu viruses.

Smallpox, the last person getting it was in 1977 and there are no reported cases after it. WHO was successful to get rid of it. Smallpox virus (virola virus) exist still in laboratories when it is considered to be a biological weapon. Anthrax and plague are also considered to be B-weapons. The two latter still occur naturally in the world, but they are treatable if the infected get treatment pretty fast. Ebola and Marburg (filo-viruses) have a potential for being weapons.

I think the major thing from all this is whether recovered patients are developing antibodies, if they are then the virus is far less of a threat.

Following a University of Oxford Study, 25 million British citizens were infected by CV and this some 3 weeks ago , today the outcome is 2500 deaths = 1 on 10000 infected people .
All we hear from the media is doom conclusions .
Merkel said that some 70 % of the Germans were/would be infected(56 million people );the outcome is 1100 deaths = 1 on 54000 infected persons .
All we hear from the media are doom scenarios .
The greatest danger is not CV, but PV = the panic virus created by the media and which is destroying our economy and society .
Last point : for 100 deaths there are still 400 recovered .
But,as we can expect, the media are hiding this .

Originally Posted by I3BrigPvSk

There are so many things wrong with your two posts. First of all, a vaccine reduce to risk for getting the seasonal flu between 40-60% The type A H1N1 and B flu viruses mutate and there is always a risk for the vaccine for the next year vaccine doesn't match the virus causing the seasonal flu. The vaccination in the US (you like to use the US as a reference) reduced the risk for ICU treatment for adults with 82% (2012-2015)

If you get ill, you don't get a vaccine, you get an anti-viral drug. There are four different type of anti-viral drugs, Tamiflu, Relenza, Rapivab, and Xofluza.

There are also a difference between the flu viruses causing major epidemics and pandemics and the type A and B viruses causing the seasonal flu. The pandemics you are mentioning were caused by flu virus that mutated more than the seasonal variations. The mutation can also occur when a virus make a spill-over from animals, this process is called zoonosis. About 60% of all diseases are zoonotic. The virus emerging from a process like this is a novel virus and our immune system doesn't recognize it. One process can be when a type A virus and let say a bird virus exchange genes and became more contagious. It happened with the Spanish Flu (the worst of them all), the Asian Flu, and the Hong Kong Flu. It is still a type A virus, but different from all other flu viruses.

Smallpox, the last person getting it was in 1977 and there are no reported cases after it. WHO was successful to get rid of it. Smallpox virus (virola virus) exist still in laboratories when it is considered to be a biological weapon. Anthrax and plague are also considered to be B-weapons. The two latter still occur naturally in the world, but they are treatable if the infected get treatment pretty fast. Ebola and Marburg (filo-viruses) have a potential for being weapons.

About the anti flu vaccinations : most old people get them , most younger people do not get them.The reason is for the old people NOT that without the vaccine they would more likely be sick, but if they are sick ,they have a bigger risk to die, because they are weak and have no longer a sufficient resistance .For those younger than 65 it is the opposite : they have sufficient resistance and most can do without the vaccine .
For children : they must build their antibodies and a vaccine would hinder them .
That's why the sentence that the vaccine is reducing the risk of being ill ( not dying !) is senseless : there is no proof that the vaccine/no vaccine is influencing the number of sick people ( not infected people as we all are infected with the flu virus ):
33 million Americans became sick by the 2018-2019 flu ( in different levels ) : let's assume that 50 % of the population was vaccinated (165 million )
what would be the result if no one was vaccinated ? would the number of sick go up ?
if 50% of the sick was vaccinated, that would mean that you had the same chance to become sick with or without vaccine .
And if the vaccine was that good , why was not everyone vaccinated ?
Besides : every year there is 50 % chance that the vaccine will not work, as he is based on the last flu,and as the next flu can always differ from the last flu .
The truth is that people who die from the flu and who have no vaccine would mainly also die from the flu if they had a vaccine : someone of 90 who is ill and weak and dies without vaccine would also die with vaccine .And some one of 40 who is healthy and strong and survives the flu with a vaccine would also survive the flu without a vaccine .