Originally Posted by Mark Conley

thank you flyiing frog (what a name...i like it sorta has a poetry all its own)

well that summed it up very nicely. however, i believe the status quo will preval this year, and maybe the next. I think matters on taiwan will stand as they do today.

Yah I am FlyingFrog becaues too many Chinese on web choose the name of FlyingDragon

In the coming 4 years there will be no problem in Taiwan at all, they just held their election in April, and most people there didn't vote for independence.

Even after 2008 I don't think they will go independece at all, the economic relation btw Mainland and Taiwan is just developing so fast recent years.

Well USA is the vital factor in the Taiwan issue.
USA can help a lot for a peacefull Taiwan Straits, but pity I think US government just wants to create trouble btw Taiwan and China sothat they can make big benifit from there

U know that that would lead to overall war,and allies would have to react on both sides
So........i say new WW

Originally Posted by FlyingFrog

USA can help a lot for a peacefull Taiwan Straits, but pity I think US government just wants to create trouble btw Taiwan and China sothat they can make big benifit from there

You make enough trouble on your own, the US doesn't need to.

well..........i think that ur both half right,but dont wanna be involved in this specific topic

You see, the leaders of the Chinese government will not be so stupid as to start a war with the US when these Chinese leaders are enjoying their rule and leadership. Why endanger your own power and status thru a war? Once there's a total or even regional war, the Chinese military may seize power from the central government and that's exactly what the Chinese leaders are afraid.. more so because they are not from a military background. Secondly, as the Chinese government is not elected, there's not reason for the Chinese people to continue their support for them if and when the Chinese military (their generals) takeover the government or at least control the present Communist Party leaders as puppets.

If the Chinese military achieves victory (it is possible that the US will not want to get involved in a total war with China. What for?) over Taiwan, the present Chinese leaders may just be a puppet governemnt under the military who has reunited the country and so has the right to rule. That's the way the government of mainland China was established in 1949 -- thru guns. It is still possible today. But it will be more complex in its operation today and it takes pages to analyse the possible situation and impact (economic and political) on the world if such a thing happens in the future. Will China be like Japan in WW2 when the Japanese military had control over everything in Japan? If China be under their military leaders, then their politics will only be war and not talk. The Chinese military are hardliners. [/b]

4. Ya thinks all those jets are within attacking range? Think about their fighting range while taking into consideration of Chinese subs. We will keep you away from Taiwan at least 500 miles in open sea.

No offense, but do you seriously believe Romeo, Ming, Kilo, and Han class boats could compete with the USN's Improved Los Angeles and Seawolf class boats? Your submarines will be too busy dodgeing MK48 ADCAPS than attacking US CBG's. It is in my firm belief that in the event of war with the PRC(god forbid it happens) the chinese submarine fleet, and it's surface navy, would be blown out of the water.

Originally Posted by BmrSooner451

No offense, but do you seriously believe Romeo, Ming, Kilo, and Han class boats could compete with the USN's Improved Los Angeles and Seawolf class boats? Your submarines will be too busy dodgeing MK48 ADCAPS than attacking US CBG's. It is in my firm belief that in the event of war with the PRC(god forbid it happens) the chinese submarine fleet, and it's surface navy, would be blown out of the water.

But how will the US Navy deal with the Chinese intermediate range missiles against the carrier fleets? These missiles are guided by Chinese satellites, hard to intercept and cheap to make. I just wonder what are the possible ways the US carrier fleets can avoid being hit by one of these high speed missiles should the Chinese military rain the carrier fleets with such missiles? Not to forget that the Chinese now also has cruise missiles. Can the F-14 Tomcats on CAP intercept so many missiles? It may not be possible and you will know it if you had played the Fleet Defender (F-14) -- an old but good PC game by Microprose in 1994. 8) 8)

HERO, Have you ever seen an AEGIS warship in action? I've seen the SM-2MR and the AEGIS system defeat multiple small, fast moving "threats". now you gotta figure how many AEGIS ships are in a CBG. Not only can they protect the CBG from air attack, not to mention that the missile cruisers/destroyers would be attacking teh chinese fleet with Harpoons, and TASM's(if equiped). Not to mention the CAW and foward deployed SSN's.




and when I was young i played AEGIS: Guardian of the Fleet, Harpoon II, and Fleet Commander

Originally Posted by BmrSooner451

HERO, Have you ever seen an AEGIS warship in action? I've seen the SM-2MR and the AEGIS system defeat multiple small, fast moving "threats". now you gotta figure how many AEGIS ships are in a CBG. Not only can they protect the CBG from air attack, not to mention that the missile cruisers/destroyers would be attacking teh chinese fleet with Harpoons, and TASM's(if equiped). Not to mention the CAW and foward deployed SSN's.

and when I was young i played AEGIS: Guardian of the Fleet, Harpoon II, and Fleet Commander

What you say is true regarding the AEGIS. But what I'm concerned is that the US fleet will be threatened by intermediate range ballistic missiles, not the classic naval warfare scenario. The use of ballistic missiles is not a new concept but one that was developed by the Soviets in the 1960s. By then, the attacks could be carried out by Backfire bombers or intermediate ballistic missiles. In the '60s, some experts had even said that the era of fighter jets had come to an end as entire airbases could be destroyed by ballistic missiles even before the fighters or bombers could take off. The use of jets or Airforce was severely limited to conventional warfare, which if superpowers were involved in any conflict, easily escalated to a nuclear confrontation.

This scenario is the same for carrier fleets as their mobility is only about 20 to 30 knots an hour -- not much. So that's why US carrier fleets were avoiding being too close to the coast of China in 1996 during the Chinese missile test over Taiwan, at least beyond a few hundred miles from possible land-based missile attacks. Even the shorter range missile attacks are considered dangerous to the US fleet http://www.insightmag.com/main.cfm/i...id/258778.html
http://www.rense.com/politics5/stealthmiss.htm
About using ballistic missiles against US fleet http://www.worldnetdaily.com/news/ar...TICLE_ID=28271

The prioritay for the USN, USAF, US Army is Laser defence, which will be operational, and very much in use by 2010, after that US of A should not fear from ICBMs, planes.........