This thread came about as a result of the discussion on the UK. It was asserted that China was not a superpower because it didn’t have the capacity to militarily assert it power more than “a few hundred miles from its borders”. Further, it was argued that its economy was not “significant enough to be labelled as a superpower”.
My argument was that a superpower can assert its self through more than just its military capabilities. It’s a combination of both political, economic and military power. An my belief is, that China is taking a more “deft touch” in how it achieves its aims which is “to become the No 1 economic power on earth” and from there the number power on earth.
Here are a couple of things that might indicate it is already a superpower
Permanent seat on the Security Council
G7 involvement
Acknowledged nuclear power with intercontinental capability
One of only three nations with demonstrated space travel capabilities
The largest standing army in the world.
The second largest economy in the world.
Talking of China's economy:
Size
The US GDP is approx $11.75 trillion. The next highest in the world is China at $7.262. While there is still debate, there is wide-spread predictions that the size of the Chinese economy will overtake the US before 2020. The third highest in the world is Japan at $3.75 trillion, closely followed by India and Germany. Ten years ago, neither India or China were in the top five.
China’s growth is expected to continue at over 8% per annum whereas the US will struggle to achieve 4%.
Trade & Balance of Payments
The US exports under 10% of its GDP whereas it imports are close to 15%. In the early 90s these, percentages were both around 8%. The total US trade deficit has risen from $114 billion in 1997 to $600 billion.
China on the other hand, exports 8% of its GDP and imports around 7.6%. And this export percentage is expected to rise over the next 10 years. The US imports over 5.5 times what it exports to China. Further, the country continues a massive trade surplus each year.
Some of the problem stems from China pegging its currency to the US dollar (although it has recently starting revaluing the Yuan) but the more problematic cause is its ability to produce goods much cheaper than the US (wages are around 30 times less in China)
And its Military:
I am not going to list all China’s deficiencies (as there are much better and informed minds on this forum) but at the heart of the argument appears to be China’s lack of a mobile strike force (carriers, modern nuclear subs, advanced fighter/bombers). My argument is that China’s first priority is stamping its economic, and hence, political place on the world. They have put off building advanced carriers and the like* because, I assert, of the alarm bells that would set off in the US and within Asia. This is not to say they are without significant military power, but just that their strategy is quite different to other 2nd & 3rd world powers who spend fortunes on developing the military while their people starve. Their patience in dealing with Taiwan is another indication of that strategy. “Deft touch”, as I said.
*(Although I understand that China has been gradually replacing its ships, tanks and fighters with modern weaponry – and they are being built within China)
Just so people know, I am an Australian who works and lives in the US – prior to that I was in Shanghai. One of the aspects of my job happens to revolve around assisting US manufacturers compete with Chinese companies. So, I do have a vested interest here - its my clients and friends who feel the effects. (History just happens to my personal hobby and passion) Thought you should know.
Anyway, looking forward to hearing people's views.
China is a sleeping giant, Napoleon once warned. "Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world."
[/b]
My argument was that a superpower can assert its self through more than just its military capabilities. It’s a combination of both political, economic and military power. An my belief is, that China is taking a more “deft touch” in how it achieves its aims which is “to become the No 1 economic power on earth” and from there the number power on earth.
Here are a couple of things that might indicate it is already a superpower
Permanent seat on the Security Council
G7 involvement
Acknowledged nuclear power with intercontinental capability
One of only three nations with demonstrated space travel capabilities
The largest standing army in the world.
The second largest economy in the world.
Talking of China's economy:
Size
The US GDP is approx $11.75 trillion. The next highest in the world is China at $7.262. While there is still debate, there is wide-spread predictions that the size of the Chinese economy will overtake the US before 2020. The third highest in the world is Japan at $3.75 trillion, closely followed by India and Germany. Ten years ago, neither India or China were in the top five.
China’s growth is expected to continue at over 8% per annum whereas the US will struggle to achieve 4%.
Trade & Balance of Payments
The US exports under 10% of its GDP whereas it imports are close to 15%. In the early 90s these, percentages were both around 8%. The total US trade deficit has risen from $114 billion in 1997 to $600 billion.
China on the other hand, exports 8% of its GDP and imports around 7.6%. And this export percentage is expected to rise over the next 10 years. The US imports over 5.5 times what it exports to China. Further, the country continues a massive trade surplus each year.
Some of the problem stems from China pegging its currency to the US dollar (although it has recently starting revaluing the Yuan) but the more problematic cause is its ability to produce goods much cheaper than the US (wages are around 30 times less in China)
And its Military:
I am not going to list all China’s deficiencies (as there are much better and informed minds on this forum) but at the heart of the argument appears to be China’s lack of a mobile strike force (carriers, modern nuclear subs, advanced fighter/bombers). My argument is that China’s first priority is stamping its economic, and hence, political place on the world. They have put off building advanced carriers and the like* because, I assert, of the alarm bells that would set off in the US and within Asia. This is not to say they are without significant military power, but just that their strategy is quite different to other 2nd & 3rd world powers who spend fortunes on developing the military while their people starve. Their patience in dealing with Taiwan is another indication of that strategy. “Deft touch”, as I said.
*(Although I understand that China has been gradually replacing its ships, tanks and fighters with modern weaponry – and they are being built within China)
Just so people know, I am an Australian who works and lives in the US – prior to that I was in Shanghai. One of the aspects of my job happens to revolve around assisting US manufacturers compete with Chinese companies. So, I do have a vested interest here - its my clients and friends who feel the effects. (History just happens to my personal hobby and passion) Thought you should know.
Anyway, looking forward to hearing people's views.
China is a sleeping giant, Napoleon once warned. "Let her sleep, for when she wakes she will shake the world."
[/b]
