Team Infidel
Forum Spin Doctor
USA Today
April 3, 2009
Pg. 8
North Korea's erratic leader, Kim Jong Il, loves to use nuclear-related antics to grab attention and get his way. His latest gambit is undoubtedly intended to do that, as well as test the new U.S. president.
North Korea says that as early as Saturday, it will launch its first satellite into space. That fools no one. It is North Korea's standard cover for testing a ballistic missile, something United Nations Security Council resolutions forbid. The implication is that North Korea could eventually develop nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the United States.
What to do about it? If Kim hoped it would trigger the first big foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration, he is already disappointed. The U.S. and Japan ruled out efforts to shoot down the long-range rocket unless it enters their territory. Apart from stern words — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned of serious consequences and Defense Secretary Robert Gates of increased economic sanctions — the response is appropriately muted.
That does not mean a launch isn't worth worrying over, whether it's successful or an embarrassing fizzle like the last one, in 2006. Not only might North Korea mount its own nuclear threat, it could sell the technology to Iran or to rogue regimes. For now, the reclusive country is more of a threat to its Asian neighborhood, but Alaska is within the roughly 4,000-mile range of the Taepodong-2 missile.
This moment, though, is as much about politics as nuclear proliferation. It is probable that hard-liners in the secretive North Korean regime want to create a crisis, or that Kim, whose health is in doubt, wants to prove his status.
In either case, the aim is to get better terms on a stalled deal under which North Korea was supposed to dismantle and come clean about its nuclear program in exchange for food, power-plant help and removal from a terrorist blacklist. It's getting the help but now wants to renege on its end of the deal.
In the past, Kim has succeeded in ducking such commitments by acting like a penniless crazy man with a powerful gun he knows gets him attention, so it's reasonable to assume he's doing so again.
But his antics haven't worked as well since then-President Bush formed a six-party group to negotiate with Pyongyang. The group includes China, South Korea, Russia and Japan, along with the U.S. and North Korea. The idea is that the neighborhood take a collective stand against the local hoodlum, and resist his usual divisive tricks. It's the best way to counter Kim's blatant blackmail attempt.
The long-established method to Kim's madness suggests that the best response to the planned launch is not to overreact to it, while making clear that an attack on the U.S. or its allies would result in the annihilation of his regime.
April 3, 2009
Pg. 8
North Korea's erratic leader, Kim Jong Il, loves to use nuclear-related antics to grab attention and get his way. His latest gambit is undoubtedly intended to do that, as well as test the new U.S. president.
North Korea says that as early as Saturday, it will launch its first satellite into space. That fools no one. It is North Korea's standard cover for testing a ballistic missile, something United Nations Security Council resolutions forbid. The implication is that North Korea could eventually develop nuclear-tipped missiles capable of striking the United States.
What to do about it? If Kim hoped it would trigger the first big foreign policy crisis of the Obama administration, he is already disappointed. The U.S. and Japan ruled out efforts to shoot down the long-range rocket unless it enters their territory. Apart from stern words — Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned of serious consequences and Defense Secretary Robert Gates of increased economic sanctions — the response is appropriately muted.
That does not mean a launch isn't worth worrying over, whether it's successful or an embarrassing fizzle like the last one, in 2006. Not only might North Korea mount its own nuclear threat, it could sell the technology to Iran or to rogue regimes. For now, the reclusive country is more of a threat to its Asian neighborhood, but Alaska is within the roughly 4,000-mile range of the Taepodong-2 missile.
This moment, though, is as much about politics as nuclear proliferation. It is probable that hard-liners in the secretive North Korean regime want to create a crisis, or that Kim, whose health is in doubt, wants to prove his status.
In either case, the aim is to get better terms on a stalled deal under which North Korea was supposed to dismantle and come clean about its nuclear program in exchange for food, power-plant help and removal from a terrorist blacklist. It's getting the help but now wants to renege on its end of the deal.
In the past, Kim has succeeded in ducking such commitments by acting like a penniless crazy man with a powerful gun he knows gets him attention, so it's reasonable to assume he's doing so again.
But his antics haven't worked as well since then-President Bush formed a six-party group to negotiate with Pyongyang. The group includes China, South Korea, Russia and Japan, along with the U.S. and North Korea. The idea is that the neighborhood take a collective stand against the local hoodlum, and resist his usual divisive tricks. It's the best way to counter Kim's blatant blackmail attempt.
The long-established method to Kim's madness suggests that the best response to the planned launch is not to overreact to it, while making clear that an attack on the U.S. or its allies would result in the annihilation of his regime.