It Ain't Over
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It's like the play off the media wants a close race so they will typically pile on to the leader in an attempt to keep the race close to keep reader/viewership.
mmarsh
Active member
I agree its not over, but McCain needs to light a fire under his rear-end and fast. He is down to 3 weeks left, time is not on his side.
Unfortunately McCain cannot seem to make up his mind up about which strategy to use, his unpopular economic reforms or personal attacks against Obama. Neither will win him the Presidency. He goes down those two paths and he will lose.
His best bet IMHO is to highlight his Foreign Policy Experience which is the only subject he can beat Obama on. Putting the VP nominee on one-way ticket to Anchorage would be be a good start before she can open her mouth again. Its a longshot, but its the best option hes got.
All in all, he has a uphill battle.
Unfortunately McCain cannot seem to make up his mind up about which strategy to use, his unpopular economic reforms or personal attacks against Obama. Neither will win him the Presidency. He goes down those two paths and he will lose.
His best bet IMHO is to highlight his Foreign Policy Experience which is the only subject he can beat Obama on. Putting the VP nominee on one-way ticket to Anchorage would be be a good start before she can open her mouth again. Its a longshot, but its the best option hes got.
All in all, he has a uphill battle.
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I think there is problem with the analysis here.
Carter had the Iran hostages issue counting against him going into the election as the incumbent, all Reagan had to do was play on that where as the two current applicants are "new" applicants and essentially have a clean sheet in terms of their leadership.
In all honesty I don't think Obama is winning this campaign as much as McCain seems to be determined to lose it, his campaign is all over the place and it lacks focus on specific issues that people actually give a rats arse about.
I get the impression that his strategy was determined six months ago before the economic meltdown set in because it is a classic campaign for an election that has no serious issues facing the country, where as Obama's has been one of "shut up and let the other guy put his foot in it".
This is election is not a done deal by any stretch of the imagination it is a very close race, they are both good candidates but it is getting to the point that McCain will need to start making in roads or things will begin to compound against him.
It is getting very ugly and I think McCain has lost his way.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-e...ine-as-campaign-turns-ugly-20081011-4yqk.html
I still think Obama will win comfortably. The media will keep playing up the idea that it will be close right up to the death knell
http://www.theage.com.au/world/us-e...ine-as-campaign-turns-ugly-20081011-4yqk.html
I still think Obama will win comfortably. The media will keep playing up the idea that it will be close right up to the death knell
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I agree that McCain's campaign hasn't been a good one but just looking at a general popularity poll is not a good way to determine who is going to win an American election.
I tend to believe that both candidates are generally liked and both are going to receive their party followers support which is probably 70% of the electorate so in reality the only thing that matters is the popularity of each candidate in the few contested states and you will not determine that from a popularity poll based over the entire USA or even from a state that is already secured by one of the candidates.
I have found this to be a reasonable site for Polling as it does exclude the obviously affiliated polling sites.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html
On the whole I agree with those who would not call this election as a done deal, I think Obama is fractionally in front but not by anywhere near enough to relax, one screw up by either candidate can still cost them the race.
Centrebet Australia has Obama 1.11 McCain 6.00
http://centrebet.com/cust
Go to elections on the left hand side.
Obama will walk it in! McCain is looking like a tired and frustrated old man.
http://centrebet.com/cust
Go to elections on the left hand side.
Obama will walk it in! McCain is looking like a tired and frustrated old man.
A Can of Man
Je suis aware
The mysterious thing about the McCain campaign is that they have not been using McCain's strengths (experience and foreign relations etc.) but rather have been trying to shore up his weaknesses (economics) and not only that but even with Palin they've been losing their way with her strengths and have been trying to shore up her weaknesses (foreign relations for one).
I just don't think their campaign manager is a very good one.
I just don't think their campaign manager is a very good one.
Chief Bones
Forums Grumpy Old Man
The clock is ticking ... and the picture isn't good ...
The Troopergate Report is still trickling through political circles, and is doing grievous harm to the McCain/Palin ticket. Some people are beginning to wonder ... if McCain can make as big a mistake as he did when he chose an unknown that has Palin's baggage, how can we trust him. It places his judgement in question. The fact is ... McCain is all over the map as to which tactic he is going to use while campaigning. That and the information that Palin misused her power as Governor of Alaska, is driving more and more undecided voters into Obama's camp. Continuing polls disclose an ever widening gap, with Obama in the lead.
Unless or until McCain can counter the bad press over Palin and straighten out his campaigning with something that resonates with the voters, McCain will lose the election. We 'may' even see a landslide this time around. Only time will tell ... and ... McCain better hurry up - there is NOT very long left to turn things around. The clock is ticking ... and the picture isn't good ...
The Troopergate Report is still trickling through political circles, and is doing grievous harm to the McCain/Palin ticket. Some people are beginning to wonder ... if McCain can make as big a mistake as he did when he chose an unknown that has Palin's baggage, how can we trust him. It places his judgement in question. The fact is ... McCain is all over the map as to which tactic he is going to use while campaigning. That and the information that Palin misused her power as Governor of Alaska, is driving more and more undecided voters into Obama's camp. Continuing polls disclose an ever widening gap, with Obama in the lead.
Unless or until McCain can counter the bad press over Palin and straighten out his campaigning with something that resonates with the voters, McCain will lose the election. We 'may' even see a landslide this time around. Only time will tell ... and ... McCain better hurry up - there is NOT very long left to turn things around. The clock is ticking ... and the picture isn't good ...
If anyone reckons the election is going to be close (and I don't), they can get excellent odds on McCain for a win. Anyone tempted?
6's on Centrebet!!!!
Does anyone have an idea what Truman and Deweys odds were prior to their election? Dewey was going to be a shoe in and lost!!!!
6's on Centrebet!!!!
Does anyone have an idea what Truman and Deweys odds were prior to their election? Dewey was going to be a shoe in and lost!!!!
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
You know I am almost prepared to take those odds, politics is a funny thing and for some strange reason when people get in the polling booth everything they have said seems to go out the window.
The other thing that may have been overlooked is a lessening of the economic problems as this will play into McCains style of campaign, as people have less pressing issues to worry about they will become more receptive to mudslinging.
The other thing that may have been overlooked is a lessening of the economic problems as this will play into McCains style of campaign, as people have less pressing issues to worry about they will become more receptive to mudslinging.
Chief Bones
Forums Grumpy Old Man
21 ... 264 ... 270 ... 180 ...
21 days till the election and CNN estimates that Obama has 264 Electoral College votes out of the needed 270 votes necessary to clinch the Presidency. Unless McCain and company turns everything around 180 degrees, Obama WILL win the Presidency.
As far as the odds, McCain can't even get 6 to 1 odds he will even come close to winning the Presidency, let alone actually winning it.
It will take a miracle and those appear to have been in very short supply where McCain/Palin are concerned.
21 days till the election and CNN estimates that Obama has 264 Electoral College votes out of the needed 270 votes necessary to clinch the Presidency. Unless McCain and company turns everything around 180 degrees, Obama WILL win the Presidency.
As far as the odds, McCain can't even get 6 to 1 odds he will even come close to winning the Presidency, let alone actually winning it.
It will take a miracle and those appear to have been in very short supply where McCain/Palin are concerned.
mmarsh
Active member
And I think CNN is being rather modest in its electoral votes tallies as its so afraid of being called bias. I have seen stats that show Obama with a 357-181 electoral votes.
What is most telling is where McCain is losing, Colorado has voted Democrat only twice in 50 years. Obama is up by 9. Obama doesn't even need Colorado to win, but McCain does.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Yes but I am not entirely sure I would take CNN as the model of impartiality there is no doubt that they make a better attempt at impartiality than Fox do but their articles do clearly show a pro-Obama lean.
In terms of polls I doubt I would read too much into them, Fox had McCain at 76% to 16% last week, they are all over the place.
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Well maybe I was wrong perhaps it is all over but the shouting...
Obama Wins Scholastic News Election Poll
Almost 250,000 (a quarter of a million) kids voted by paper ballot or online
By Jack Greenberg | October 14 , 2008
It's official. At least for the kids! The Scholastic Presidential Election Poll results are in: Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote, to 39 percent for Republican nominee Senator John McCain.
The poll was open to kids from grades 1 to 12 in Scholastic News and Junior Scholastic magazines. Almost 250,000 (a quarter of a million) kids voted by paper ballot or online at www.scholastic.com/news. The poll closed on October 10.
Since 1940, the results of the student vote have mirrored the outcome of the general election all but twice: In 1948, kids voted for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman. In 1960, more students voted for Richard M. Nixon than for John F. Kennedy. In 2000, a majority of student voters chose George W. Bush, mirroring the Electoral College result, but not the result of the popular vote.
Obama and McCain weren't the only vote getters. Four percent of the students voted for other people like comedian Stephen Colbert, and entertainers Miley Cyrus, and the Jonas Brothers. It was the highest percent of write-in votes in the history of the poll. Some even voted for themselves. Most of the write-in votes —11 percent of the 4 percent—were for Senator Hillary Clinton.
So why is a kid poll important? And does it mean anything come November 4? Kid Reporter Lya Ferreyra knows.
"Not only does [voting in the] poll give kids the experience they will need to vote in the future, but it allows them to have input on who should be the next President of the United States," she said. "It gives kids a voice, which is important, but we won't know the actual outcome until November 4. No one can predict that."
Ferreyra and this reporter both appeared on numerous news programs this week to announce the poll results.
Results from key swing states are as follows:
Colorado:McCain 61% Obama 36% Other 3%
Florida:McCain 41% Obama 55% Other 4%
Indiana:McCain 51% Obama 47% Other 2%
Iowa:McCain 48% Obama 49% Other 3%
Michigan:McCain 40% Obama 57% Other 3%
Missouri:McCain 49% Obama 47% Other 4%
Ohio:McCain 47% Obama 51% Other 2%
Pennsylvania:McCain 46% Obama 50% Other 4%
Be sure to follow Election Night results with the Kid Reporters on Scholastic News Online throughout the evening of November 4.
http://www2.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3750501&print=1
In terms of polls I doubt I would read too much into them, Fox had McCain at 76% to 16% last week, they are all over the place.
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Well maybe I was wrong perhaps it is all over but the shouting...
Obama Wins Scholastic News Election Poll
Almost 250,000 (a quarter of a million) kids voted by paper ballot or online
By Jack Greenberg | October 14 , 2008
It's official. At least for the kids! The Scholastic Presidential Election Poll results are in: Democratic nominee Senator Barack Obama won with 57 percent of the vote, to 39 percent for Republican nominee Senator John McCain.
The poll was open to kids from grades 1 to 12 in Scholastic News and Junior Scholastic magazines. Almost 250,000 (a quarter of a million) kids voted by paper ballot or online at www.scholastic.com/news. The poll closed on October 10.
Since 1940, the results of the student vote have mirrored the outcome of the general election all but twice: In 1948, kids voted for Thomas E. Dewey over Harry S. Truman. In 1960, more students voted for Richard M. Nixon than for John F. Kennedy. In 2000, a majority of student voters chose George W. Bush, mirroring the Electoral College result, but not the result of the popular vote.
Obama and McCain weren't the only vote getters. Four percent of the students voted for other people like comedian Stephen Colbert, and entertainers Miley Cyrus, and the Jonas Brothers. It was the highest percent of write-in votes in the history of the poll. Some even voted for themselves. Most of the write-in votes —11 percent of the 4 percent—were for Senator Hillary Clinton.
So why is a kid poll important? And does it mean anything come November 4? Kid Reporter Lya Ferreyra knows.
"Not only does [voting in the] poll give kids the experience they will need to vote in the future, but it allows them to have input on who should be the next President of the United States," she said. "It gives kids a voice, which is important, but we won't know the actual outcome until November 4. No one can predict that."
Ferreyra and this reporter both appeared on numerous news programs this week to announce the poll results.
Results from key swing states are as follows:
Colorado:McCain 61% Obama 36% Other 3%
Florida:McCain 41% Obama 55% Other 4%
Indiana:McCain 51% Obama 47% Other 2%
Iowa:McCain 48% Obama 49% Other 3%
Michigan:McCain 40% Obama 57% Other 3%
Missouri:McCain 49% Obama 47% Other 4%
Ohio:McCain 47% Obama 51% Other 2%
Pennsylvania:McCain 46% Obama 50% Other 4%
Be sure to follow Election Night results with the Kid Reporters on Scholastic News Online throughout the evening of November 4.
http://www2.scholastic.com/browse/article.jsp?id=3750501&print=1
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Well, now comes the good part - waiting for the fat lady to sing! Has this book already cropped up on our boards; is it common knowledge, already built into the equation? Just asking.
Book Review: The Case Against Barack Obama by David Freddoso
Written by John Bambenek
Published August 08, 2008
For people who pay attention to politics, the phrase "Chicago Machine Politics" means all the worst aspects of electioneering, corruption and dirty politics. Jobs are handed out as political favors, contributions are solicited in exchange for contracts, and government workers spend their times leading up to Election Day doing political work on behalf of connected candidates. It's everything that's wrong with Washington politics, except far worse.
This is the starting point of David Freddoso's new book, The Case against Barack Obama - The Unlikely Rise and Unexamined Agenda of the Media's Favorite Candidate. For instance, it is little-known that Barack Obama's first real election challenge was his primary race against… Hillary Clinton. In 1996, he ran for the State Senate but used Illinois' arcane (and unconstitutional) election laws to throw every other candidate off the ballot. He won office unopposed.
In 2004, he ran for Senate but the sexual dalliances took down his main primary opponent. The general election race, however, would be pure comedy if it wasn't so tragic for the Illinois Republican Party. A Republican version of Obama, Jack Ryan, won the primary nod, but he was not well-loved in the inner-circles of the state GOP organization. His divorce files were made public, and more sexual dalliances came out (at least those were with his wife) which sunk Ryan.
For weeks, the Illinois GOP could not find a nominee. They had to import Alan Keyes to run against Obama, whose only campaign point seemed to be "Jesus would not vote for Barack Obama." Obama won his Senate seat without any real opposition in what would have otherwise been a very bad year for the Democrats.
To political observers, it seems absurd that a product and participant of Chicago machine politics could credibly claim to be the voice of change and hope to reform Washington, D.C. Not impossible, sure, but it defies credulity. Freddoso examines the facts of Obama's career in Illinois, his relationships and his rise to power to definitively show that Obama is not the sterling, immaculate candidate he portrays, but in reality, is just another Chicago politician - albeit with a better speech writer.
John Bambenek is a freelance columnist and author. He is the author of Illinois Deserves Better and is an information security professional, part of the Internet Storm Center and a courseware author and certification grader for the GIAC family of security certifications.
Book Review: The Case Against Barack Obama by David Freddoso
Written by John Bambenek
Published August 08, 2008
For people who pay attention to politics, the phrase "Chicago Machine Politics" means all the worst aspects of electioneering, corruption and dirty politics. Jobs are handed out as political favors, contributions are solicited in exchange for contracts, and government workers spend their times leading up to Election Day doing political work on behalf of connected candidates. It's everything that's wrong with Washington politics, except far worse.
This is the starting point of David Freddoso's new book, The Case against Barack Obama - The Unlikely Rise and Unexamined Agenda of the Media's Favorite Candidate. For instance, it is little-known that Barack Obama's first real election challenge was his primary race against… Hillary Clinton. In 1996, he ran for the State Senate but used Illinois' arcane (and unconstitutional) election laws to throw every other candidate off the ballot. He won office unopposed.
In 2004, he ran for Senate but the sexual dalliances took down his main primary opponent. The general election race, however, would be pure comedy if it wasn't so tragic for the Illinois Republican Party. A Republican version of Obama, Jack Ryan, won the primary nod, but he was not well-loved in the inner-circles of the state GOP organization. His divorce files were made public, and more sexual dalliances came out (at least those were with his wife) which sunk Ryan.
For weeks, the Illinois GOP could not find a nominee. They had to import Alan Keyes to run against Obama, whose only campaign point seemed to be "Jesus would not vote for Barack Obama." Obama won his Senate seat without any real opposition in what would have otherwise been a very bad year for the Democrats.
To political observers, it seems absurd that a product and participant of Chicago machine politics could credibly claim to be the voice of change and hope to reform Washington, D.C. Not impossible, sure, but it defies credulity. Freddoso examines the facts of Obama's career in Illinois, his relationships and his rise to power to definitively show that Obama is not the sterling, immaculate candidate he portrays, but in reality, is just another Chicago politician - albeit with a better speech writer.
John Bambenek is a freelance columnist and author. He is the author of Illinois Deserves Better and is an information security professional, part of the Internet Storm Center and a courseware author and certification grader for the GIAC family of security certifications.
Good question Errol. As I said earlier, all my bets are off because of the catastrophic (potentially) financial crisis and the chance it could become an economic crisis. This has dwarfed other considerations and it is highly likely to have redirected the considerations of the electorate. If the Bush administration successfully rides the rapids, will it be accorded any bouquets for doing so ? Probably not, although it would be a feat. On the other hand, if they fail - Hellzapoppin!
Looks good for Obama just now, and I have to say that he has been very sure-footed and charismatic; but that is what he does of course. We have the full Obamamania here in Britain - but then we had the same for Tony Blair, right out of the same hymn-book! And Obama holds an advantage; can America dare not to elect him - what would be the response?
I am interested to see what John McCain is holding, is he timing his run; but whoever wins, I will be in there supporting the new President . Then I will be watching very, very closely. Change? Rub that lamp and make a wish.
Looks good for Obama just now, and I have to say that he has been very sure-footed and charismatic; but that is what he does of course. We have the full Obamamania here in Britain - but then we had the same for Tony Blair, right out of the same hymn-book! And Obama holds an advantage; can America dare not to elect him - what would be the response?
I am interested to see what John McCain is holding, is he timing his run; but whoever wins, I will be in there supporting the new President . Then I will be watching very, very closely. Change? Rub that lamp and make a wish.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
Well here is BBC take on it...
McCain's paths to the White House
By John Zogby
US pollster
With the 4 November US election just three weeks away, Senator John McCain's Electoral College routes to the White House have narrowed.
Our Zogby International daily tracking polls now show Mr McCain consistently trailing Senator Barack Obama by a small margin in the popular vote.
The world knows from the 2000 election that a candidate can win the election with state-based Electoral College votes, while losing the popular vote.
President George W Bush trailed Al Gore by 0.5%, but surpassed the number of electoral votes needed by one.
In 2004, Mr Bush won the popular vote over Senator John Kerry, 50.7%-48.3%, and the electoral vote, 286-251. With 538 in total, it takes 270 to win.
We could see another such photo finish this year, but only if Mr McCain rebounds. For him to win, he could hold on to all of the states President Bush took in 2004, or wrest some of the Kerry states away from Obama. Here are the possible scenarios.
Holding the Bush States
One of the states President Bush won in 2004, Iowa (7 electoral votes), is now considered safely in the Obama column. That drops the 2004 Republican advantage to 21 electoral votes.
Two closely contested states were the bedrock of both Bush victories: Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Florida (27). It becomes exceedingly difficult for Mr McCain to win without holding both of these states.
Early in September, before the world banking crisis and the debates, Mr McCain held clear leads in both states. Now, the race has closed, and some polls show Mr Obama ahead.
Ohio is perhaps the nation's prototypical state, with Democratic bases in large cities and university centres, and Republican camps in small towns, exurbs and rural areas. Financial fears cross demographic borders, as does the inclination to blame the party in power and look for new direction. That makes Ohio a true toss-up.
Florida is more unique, with a mix of deep South culture, Hispanic and African-American minorities, retirees and young transplants seeking opportunity and sunshine.
The same economic forces have rocked Florida, and Republican vice-presidential candidate Governor Sarah Palin's conservative populism may be causing discomfort among the elderly voters originally from big cities in the north, especially Jewish retirees. Florida is very much in doubt.
Mr McCain could certainly win both Ohio and Florida. However, that is not enough.
To become president, Mr McCain must also defend two southern states that have been safely Republican.
These are Virginia (13 electoral votes) and North Carolina (15), which have done well economically and attracted young emigres from more depressed northern states.
Mr Obama and Mr McCain are now deadlocked in both. Even if Mr McCain holds all the other 2004 Bush states except Iowa, losing either Virginia or North Carolina would drop him below 270 electoral votes.
Mr McCain has more ground to defend in the West. Bush won Colorado (9 electoral votes), Nevada (5) and New Mexico (5) by narrow margins. Races in all three are again very close, with New Mexico and Colorado leaning ever so slightly to Mr Obama.
Hispanics have been swing voters in these states, and right now they favour Mr Obama. Losing any one of these states would not be fatal to McCain, but two could be.
Another Bush state up for grabs is Missouri (11 electoral votes). Missouri will be close, with Mr McCain and Mr Obama trading the lead in the polls over recent weeks.
Turning Blue States to Red
Given the Republican wins in 2004 and 2000, the loss of any states that voted Democratic would be very damaging to Obama. One of those states that the GOP always targets, Michigan (17 electoral votes), has already been effectively taken off the board by Mr McCain, who pulled out his advertising and staff.
That surprised many (including his running mate Sarah Palin). This may have been a wise use of resources by McCain, who, unlike Obama, is constrained in raising money due to his agreement to take public financing.
However, the Michigan decision sends a negative message about Mr McCain's chances of picking up two other Midwestern industrial and farming battleground states, Wisconsin and Minnesota, both with 10 electoral votes. Mr Obama leads in both, but has not pulled away.
The main target for Mr McCain remains the northern state of Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), where Senator Hillary Clinton easily defeated Mr Obama in the Democratic primary. Pennsylvania's big cities of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh are balanced by rural areas that can have more in common with the South.
The state's Democratic Governor Ed Rendell in February asked whether some "conservative white voters are ready to vote for an African-American".
That remains a question, but it could be trumped by economic worries in what is a classic rust-belt state. Mr Obama's rise in Pennsylvania polls has coincided with fears about the credit crunch and falling stock prices. Right now, Mr Obama should be favoured to win Pennsylvania.
Another target is New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), won by President Bush in 2000 but by Mr Kerry in 2004. If Mr Obama succeeds in holding it in 2008, this could help to tip the balance in his favour.
Can McCain Win?
With so few opportunities to take states from his Democratic rival, Mr McCain's most likely path for victory is to limit his losses of 2004 GOP states to Iowa. Margins remain tight, putting Mr McCain in position to win any of these critical states. Winning nearly all of them is his challenge.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, this is indeed an historic and different US election. Mr Obama is the first ever African-American major party nominee.
I join most polling professionals in doubting that significant numbers of white voters are being untruthful when they say they will vote for Mr Obama (the so-called Bradley or Wilder effect).
However, measuring racial factors and how they will impact turnout and voting is one of the more difficult tasks for pollsters. How well we have done won't be known until election day.
On the flip side, Mr Obama has obviously energised both minority and young voters, two groups that historically turn out in lower numbers.
Democrats have scored very well in registering both. If they vote in numbers that Democrats hope for, Mr McCain's chances of running the table of contested states will be very, very slim.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/us_elections_2008/7669322.stm
The Other Guy
Spam King
Meh.... The only major city in Ohio he'll carry will be Cincinnati.
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