It Ain't Over

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Chief Bones said:
I can't buy that one.

The fence sitters get it, but are so sick of GW Bush, Republicans and politics in general, they just don't want to talk about it.
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I suppose they're not all fence sitters, some are just feeling a little disappointed at the moment.
 
Chief Bones said:
I can't buy that one.

The fence sitters get it, but are so sick of GW Bush, Republicans and politics in general, they just don't want to talk about it.
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The fence sitters vote mostly on impulse. Whoever throws the most effective hail mary the night before will get their vote.
 
The Other Guy said:
The fence sitters vote mostly on impulse. Whoever throws the most effective hail mary the night before will get their vote.
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The fence sitters on this forum are the ones not brave enough to call this election now.

You can get 8 to 1 for McCain. If I was thinking it was still going to be close, I would have a flutter on him.

Obama is too short for a decent return.
 
perseus said:
Some polls especially in the Battleground states suggest a recent tightning between Obama and McCain.

Rasmussen reports the gap down to 3 points on the 28th!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/7360265.stm

Betfair now dropped the odds from 9 to 7.8 so still a large gap to fill.
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials...presidential-election/to-be-elected-president
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I am pretty certain this tightening was predicted a while ago. :)

The big problem though is (if you believe the polls are reasonably accurate) McCain would need about a 7% swing in the battle ground states to win and a 6.5% swing just to tie.

What it boils down to is that if the polls are right Obama will win in a landslide and if they are as accurate as they have been in the past it will be a close race that either side can win, about the only thing I believe it is safe to say is that it probably wont be a landslide to McCain unless of course the polls are being made up by blind chimpanzees in Peru.
 
Odds are back up over 8. Are you a betting man Monty? Based on what you say it sounds as if you should give it a long shot at these odds!
 
perseus said:
Odds are back up over 8. Are you a betting man Monty? Based on what you say it sounds as if you should give it a long shot at these odds!
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No I am not really a betting man, at times I will play the odds but usually that is only in sports where patterns are often over looked for example the Rugby World Cup where I have picked the finalists and winners for the last 3 events and turned a good profit from three $50 bets.

Outside that I have been to Las Vegas about 10 times and gambled away exactly $5.25 for the most part I just go there for the drinking. :)

Anyway back to topic...
We have a lot of Yanks at work and mainly because we get bored senseless at times we spent much of the day looking at various permeation's of this election based the current polls and then factoring in swings just for the sake of filling in a day and it really does look close to impossible for McCain (based on current polling).

The real question in all of this is how accurate are the polls.
 
perseus said:
McCain now at 12.5 at Betfair, either you can steal some money or the election is practically over!
http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/win-market

Gallup widened to a 13 point difference so not sure what all this tightening talk was!
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/in_depth/629/629/7360265.stm
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You know I really find those numbers hard to believe, if you look at all the data coming in it shows more and more contested States including Democratic ones and most polls in these States show that difference between the two candidates is almost the margin for error (2-4%).
 
Whichever way the dice fall, IMHO John McCain has done a fantastic job to stay in touch to the end, when the Republican party has been so overwhelmed by the horror of the financial crash; I think they could not have achieved so much through anyone else; and if he makes it, then he will have performed a miracle , taking into account that it would be practically impossible for a party who were in position when such a disaster occurred to hold on; the demand for change of administration would be so irresistable.
 
Del Boy said:
Whichever way the dice fall, IMHO John McCain has done a fantastic job to stay in touch to the end, when the Republican party has been so overwhelmed by the horror of the financial crash; I think they could not have achieved so much through anyone else; and if he makes it, then he will have performed a miracle , taking into account that it would be practically impossible for a party who were in position when such a disaster occurred to hold on; the demand for change of administration would be so irresistable.
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That is an interesting view as a lot of the guys I work with (about 8 of the 13 on the current project are from the US branch) go the other way in that many of them say that had Obama been a middle aged white guy he would 20 points ahead.

I actually think the only reason McCain is behind is because of a poor campaign, it has been fragmented and dirty which turned a lot of people off. I think however the last week to week and a half has shown that when he drops the rhetoric and gets Palin out of the news his ratings have shot up.
 
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MontyB said:
You know I really find those numbers hard to believe, if you look at all the data coming in it shows more and more contested States including Democratic ones and most polls in these States show that difference between the two candidates is almost the margin for error (2-4%).
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Yes I think your right regarding the marginals, Mccain is gaining in nearly every one, suggests the punters may have got it wrong at such long odds.

http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/politics-and-election/us-presidential-election/win-market

Betfair at 13 now!
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/va/virginia_mccain_vs_obama-551.html
 
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MontyB said:
That is an interesting view as a lot of the guys I work with (about 8 of the 13 on the current project are from the US branch) go the other way in that many of them say that had Obama been a middle aged white guy he would 20 points ahead.

I actually think the only reason McCain is behind is because of a poor campaign, it has been fragmented and dirty which turned a lot of people off. I think however the last week to week and a half has shown that when he drops the rhetoric and gets Palin out of the news his ratings have shot up.
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The BBC poll graphs tonight reveal just what I suspected; the financial explosion coincided with the current gap. No-one should have been expected to overcome that Elephant in the room; McCain has made valiant efforts in diabolical circumstances. There is a desperation to get away from the administration which presided over the financial collapse and where it might be heading. Whether a new administration can make a difference in that respect is a different matter. Very soon, all will be revealed; the voice of American people will be heard - or pehaps I should say 'choice'.
 
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Del Boy said:
The BBC poll graphs tonight reveal just what I suspected; the financial explosion coincided with the current gap. No-one should have been expected to overcome that Elephant in the room; McCain has made valiant efforts in diabolical circumstances. There is a desperation to get away from the administration which presided over the financial collapse and where it might be heading. Whether a new administration can make a difference in that respect is a different matter.
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To be blunt I couldn't agree less.
Both candidates had to deal with that event not just McCain and it is clear that the people felt Obama was the better choice during that phase.
 
OK. Fine, that is your prerogative. As it is mine to be blunt and say that I disagree with you, on this particular point.:smil:
 
Well, the battle is engaged! The fat lady is singing . What a fantastic, dramatic, historic election; how privileged we are to have experienced it. Takes me back to the JFK-Nixon election.

I say, may the best man win.

"Given the positive public evaluations that McCain and Obama have received throughout 2008, it could be argued that Americans will be comfortable with either as the next commander in chief. While only one can be president, the loser of this year's election is poised to supplant Al Gore as the best-liked presidential candidate not to get elected." ( - Gallup)

I just cannot let the occasion pass without penning a little song to commemorate the occasion should Obama win, which appears to be the expectation at the moment. It is strictly non-partisan!

Here we go:- (all together now)

I’m a Yankee Doodle Dandy;
First black President, remember;
Real live nephew of my Uncle Sam;
Born on the 4th of November.


I’m America’s new sweetheart;
I’m the Yankee do-or-die;
Yankee Doodle came to DC;
All change – or baloney?
I am that Yankee Doodle Guy!





Whoever wins, I will be saying 'Hail to the Chief'.

GOD BLESS AMERICA.
 
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