It Ain't Over
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Chief Bones
Forums Grumpy Old Man
Like a yo-yo ..............
The latest Zogby Poll just showed Obama leading by 10 points. The numbers are still bouncing around like a yo-yo ... however, overall, the numbers are still stacked in Obama's favor.
McCain has to wrest some of those "decider" states from Obama's grasp.
Whether McCain can do so, remains to be seen.
The latest Zogby Poll just showed Obama leading by 10 points. The numbers are still bouncing around like a yo-yo ... however, overall, the numbers are still stacked in Obama's favor.
McCain has to wrest some of those "decider" states from Obama's grasp.
Whether McCain can do so, remains to be seen.
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
But that is just it, from what I see Obama is up in the popular vote but if you look at all the decided states Obama's lead is much lower than that popular vote, as I said if you make all the states with less than 5% support for each candidate "undecided" then the race gets much closer.
On top of this if you look at the Rasmussen polls the lead has rarely been more than 4% and almost all the decider states are within 3%.
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perseus
Active member
Florida is quite important in the battleground states, and there are a large number of military retirees there. That why some think the Powell defection might be significant. Although judging from this perhaps not.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/fl/florida_mccain_vs_obama-418.html
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
I think the State to watch in this race is Virginia.
If you look at the maps and accept that the two candidate will hold all of the States where they poll 10% or greater apart then all Obama has to win is Virginia, as far as I can tell (and I could be misreading things) but you can give all of the other closely contested States to McCain and he will still fall 2 votes short.
Chief Bones
Forums Grumpy Old Man
Rightly or wrongly ... a bag of garbage ........
Monty
You are forgetting one very glaring and not so obvious piece of baggage that McCain is carrying in his knapsack. It is his identification as a Republican, his identification as a "yes man" for GW Bush - 90% voting record, and the fact that the economy has tanked. American voters view this trash bag full of garbage (rightly or not), as being the fault of GW Bush and the Republican Party. There is going to be a very large vote "AGAINST" one of the parties and it ain't the Democratic Party this time around. McCain (and the GOP), are going to be the losers in THIS particular popularity contest.
BTW - according to the pundits, this particular phenomena won't surface till the actual election day. There is also the "embarrassment" phenomena ... some people are embarrassed to say how they will vote {Republicans who will vote for Obama and those who will vote for McCain for racist reasons and blacks that will vote for McCain who are embarrassed because they will vote for the white guy}. These situations are going to affect the vote count ... how much remains to be seen.
Personally, I believe that the House, Senate and Whitehouse is going to witness a changing of the guard ... they are ALL going to gain a MAJOR Democratic Party presence and the Republicans will become a distant memory.
Monty
You are forgetting one very glaring and not so obvious piece of baggage that McCain is carrying in his knapsack. It is his identification as a Republican, his identification as a "yes man" for GW Bush - 90% voting record, and the fact that the economy has tanked. American voters view this trash bag full of garbage (rightly or not), as being the fault of GW Bush and the Republican Party. There is going to be a very large vote "AGAINST" one of the parties and it ain't the Democratic Party this time around. McCain (and the GOP), are going to be the losers in THIS particular popularity contest.
BTW - according to the pundits, this particular phenomena won't surface till the actual election day. There is also the "embarrassment" phenomena ... some people are embarrassed to say how they will vote {Republicans who will vote for Obama and those who will vote for McCain for racist reasons and blacks that will vote for McCain who are embarrassed because they will vote for the white guy}. These situations are going to affect the vote count ... how much remains to be seen.
Personally, I believe that the House, Senate and Whitehouse is going to witness a changing of the guard ... they are ALL going to gain a MAJOR Democratic Party presence and the Republicans will become a distant memory.
I totally agree Chief but the fence sitters just don't get it.
Chief Bones
Forums Grumpy Old Man
I can't buy that one.
The fence sitters get it, but are so sick of GW Bush, Republicans and politics in general, they just don't want to talk about it.
MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
What fence sitters?
Has it occured to you that:
a) I am not American I actually am only interested in the election I don't actually care who wins it as they really have little to do with me and in either case it will be an improvement over the incumbent.
b) I seriously do not have a problem with either candidate although had McCain chosen a different running mate I probably would be backing him.
c) A lot of people do not like either candidate for what ever reason they may have.
d) Until the votes are counted no one actually knows who is going to win and while polls can be accurate they have also been known to be wrong as have book makers.
Chief Bones may well be 100% correct or he could be completely wrong and until the day after the election no one will really know.
What I would like to know is why you are so aggressive over it?
A Can of Man
Je suis aware
Often the ups and downs of the economy has little to do with the people in charge but this case is different because it was a failure to regulate a reckless and dangerous loan policy that people were aware of for three years before it really went down the tubes this year.
He might be in the "all the ills of the world are because of the United States and before the United States was born, the world lived in peace and harmony" camp.
He might be in the "all the ills of the world are because of the United States and before the United States was born, the world lived in peace and harmony" camp.
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A Can of Man
Je suis aware
President of the United States is probably just about the hardest job in the world right now. It seems like no matter what you do, you lose. You just do a little better each time at best.
That's how I see it. Look at the incumbant; 9/11, New Orleans and the worst financial crisis, perhaps, of all time. You can't back down and you can't stumble going forward. Damned if you do - damned if you don't. I am surprised that he is still standing. I await history, the present is too painful.
Presidents - 4 were assasinated, 1 was impeached, 1 had to creep away shamed, and much, much more. All I have to say, as do you , big job; not for the faint-hearted.
Presidents - 4 were assasinated, 1 was impeached, 1 had to creep away shamed, and much, much more. All I have to say, as do you , big job; not for the faint-hearted.
Chief Bones
Forums Grumpy Old Man
It ain't over till it's over ............
Monty
If your "forceful" comment was addressed to me ... there is a very simple answer. If it wasn't my apologies .........
I am so fed up with the McCain/Palin attacks ads, I could scream. They turn me off even more than 90% McCain's touting old Bush plans that don't work, and wouldn't work just because McCain became President. That is worse than cutting a board again just because it was too short. They didn't work the first time around and rewarming them won't change the outcome.
I am an American voter that says enough is enough. I am NOT voting FOR Obama this time around ... I will be voting AGAINST McCain by casting my vote for Obama so I cancel out one Republican vote for McCain. We really can't afford a third term of GW Bush politics {which is what 90% McCain represents}
As far as believing the election is all but over, the trends and the polls are leaning that way ... but ... I remember the lessen of "Dewey" ... it ain't over till it is over ... and even though the fat lady is in the wings warming up her voice, it isn't time for her to really sing yet.
12 days and counting.
Monty
If your "forceful" comment was addressed to me ... there is a very simple answer. If it wasn't my apologies .........
I am so fed up with the McCain/Palin attacks ads, I could scream. They turn me off even more than 90% McCain's touting old Bush plans that don't work, and wouldn't work just because McCain became President. That is worse than cutting a board again just because it was too short. They didn't work the first time around and rewarming them won't change the outcome.
I am an American voter that says enough is enough. I am NOT voting FOR Obama this time around ... I will be voting AGAINST McCain by casting my vote for Obama so I cancel out one Republican vote for McCain. We really can't afford a third term of GW Bush politics {which is what 90% McCain represents}
As far as believing the election is all but over, the trends and the polls are leaning that way ... but ... I remember the lessen of "Dewey" ... it ain't over till it is over ... and even though the fat lady is in the wings warming up her voice, it isn't time for her to really sing yet.
12 days and counting.
mmarsh
Active member
MontyB
I cannot begin to tell you how heartbreaking and embarrassing it has been for an American living abroad for the past 8 years. The very last thing we need is another 8 more years of the Mcsame. John McCain is a decent person, but his policies are those that failed so miserably in the past. His views are not only old, but proven to fail, espicially on economics. Its very hard to believe that he will "change" anything based on the way he has voted in the past.
Its not that I (and I assume the Chief, although I dont wish to speak for him) are anamoured by Obama (though I dont think him a bad choice), its because we are furious of what has happened to America and frankly what the GOP has become.
As Colin Powell said a few days ago. The GOP was never a far-right party, but it has become a haven for the worst types of extremists from economic (Phil Gramm) to religous (Palin) to Diplomatic (Cheney, Rumsfeld). And worse, people like Sarah Palin seem to want to push it even further that way. Stop the bus, I want to get off. And there are many many like me. I can hardly reward the GOP with my vote based on their past failures.
When I see McCain I think he is both physically and mentally unqualified for the job. He has shown poor judgement in his nomination of Sarah Palin, something many Republicans have know realized and weakness in not being able to stand up fo the things he believes in.
McCain new attack again Obama is that "enemies will test him". Of course they will, but they will test McCain too, and McCain has shown are greater capacity to fold when under pressure than Obama has.
This is not the man we need in the White House.
I cannot begin to tell you how heartbreaking and embarrassing it has been for an American living abroad for the past 8 years. The very last thing we need is another 8 more years of the Mcsame. John McCain is a decent person, but his policies are those that failed so miserably in the past. His views are not only old, but proven to fail, espicially on economics. Its very hard to believe that he will "change" anything based on the way he has voted in the past.
Its not that I (and I assume the Chief, although I dont wish to speak for him) are anamoured by Obama (though I dont think him a bad choice), its because we are furious of what has happened to America and frankly what the GOP has become.
As Colin Powell said a few days ago. The GOP was never a far-right party, but it has become a haven for the worst types of extremists from economic (Phil Gramm) to religous (Palin) to Diplomatic (Cheney, Rumsfeld). And worse, people like Sarah Palin seem to want to push it even further that way. Stop the bus, I want to get off. And there are many many like me. I can hardly reward the GOP with my vote based on their past failures.
When I see McCain I think he is both physically and mentally unqualified for the job. He has shown poor judgement in his nomination of Sarah Palin, something many Republicans have know realized and weakness in not being able to stand up fo the things he believes in.
McCain new attack again Obama is that "enemies will test him". Of course they will, but they will test McCain too, and McCain has shown are greater capacity to fold when under pressure than Obama has.
This is not the man we need in the White House.
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MontyB
All-Blacks Supporter
My comment was aimed at Errol, I realise that people get passionate about elections but for the most part those people are actually taking part in the election itself, I cant bring myself to get excited about someone else election.
However in terms of who is attacking who well I am afraid that both sides are attacking each other, I think the difference is in how they are doing it Obama's camp are running an eloquent campaign where they smile and stab McCain in the back and McCain is running a brute force campaign by painting the hammer and sickle on Obama posters and shouting "up yours".
One thing I will say though is that I have seen a lot of political campaigns where all sides are very passionate in their stance but this is the first time I have seen this much anger from one party (Republicans).
perseus
Active member
I understand that the voting has actually started and Obama is winning by a large margin, although it means little at this stage
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7687495.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/us_elections_2008/7687495.stm
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