It Ain't Over

[5.56X45mm]

Mickey Mouse tried to register to vote in Florida this summer, but Orange County elections officials rejected his application, which had an ACORN stamp on it.


http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/article852295.ece

 

[Chief Bones]

Enough os enough ...

Now c'mon guys .....

I voted for Mickey Mouse for President and Minnie Mouse for Vice President not too many years ago. I definitely expect to see voters this time around do the very same thing. Way too many people are of the opinion when you vote this time, you are AGAIN having to vote for the lesser of two evils. It seems we are having to make that kind of decision way too often.

The GOP selects a broken down warhorse, that has plenty of baggage of his own, who then selects a complete unknown that has active investigations into misuse of powers ... then BOTH of them resort to a dirty smear campaign... and ... the GOP wonders why they are behind in the polls. The Democrats select an ultra-liberal with a short National Political history, who is of mixed birth ... who's personal history is replete with his own baggage.

Many whites have a problem with the Dem because he is part black, and some of the whites dislike the Rep's uber liberal beliefs ... and blacks end up being caught in the middle.

No matter how you look at things, it makes for one of the dirtiest run and most acrimonious campaigns in longer than I can remember. Most of the acrimony and just about all of the smear campaigning belong to McCain, Palin, the GOP and McCain supporters and apologists.

For myself, I will be more than just happy when this election is done.

Enough is enough ... there are enough problems facing this country without seeing the divisiveness that is being carried out by McCain, Palin etc.

 

[Chief Bones]

It's all over ... where is the fat lady???????

It's all over now with the exception of the singing ..... tonight ( Wed 10-15-08 ), and the final Presidential Debate is all over.

Take a look at CNN's latest numbers on the Electoral College Map ... the votes stands Obama 277 and McCain 174. It ONLY takes 270 votes to clinch the election.

The political pundits, say McCain struck out tonight ... he didn't hit the home-run that he needed, to help his campaign. Not ONLY did the pundits say this, the polls of viewers that were taken in the after-math of the debates say the same thing.

The best that anyone that viewed the debate can say in favor of McCain, was he showed up and placed second.

Despite McCain's attempt to rattle Obama with some of his negative comments, Obama was calm, cool , collected and in good humor. He took all of McCain's comments in stride and acted Presidential, while McCain was acting like an old curmudgeon who lost his composure {grimacing, frowning and grinding his teeth}.

As far as CNN's projection, guess we will have to wait to see how accurate their projections are.

 

[MontyB]

Problem is that CNN are not that impartial themselves as they clearly have an Obama bent, they just try harder than Fox to be less biased.

Having watched this debate I thought McCain clearly won the first 30 minutes with Obama stuttering and stammering his way through several questions before he found his feet but he seemed to go into Grandpa Simpson mode for the rest of the debate.

On the whole I think McCain held his own in every field except Education where he just looked well out of his depth. I also suspect using Joe the Plumber is going to end up biting him on the arse as it is very dangerous to give people specific points they can check.

Unlike CNN though I think McCain came out on top in that debate, not by a lot though.

 

[A Can of Man]

I watched the debate (by chance actually) and McCain tried hard but Obama seemed more presidential.
I think people often ask these guys stuff they will never be able to answer unless they get into office themselves.

 

[Chief Bones]

You are in the minority ...

Problem is that CNN are not that impartial themselves as they clearly have an Obama bent, they just try harder than Fox to be less biased.

Having watched this debate I thought McCain clearly won the first 30 minutes with Obama stuttering and stammering his way through several questions before he found his feet but he seemed to go into Grandpa Simpson mode for the rest of the debate.

On the whole I think McCain held his own in every field except Education where he just looked well out of his depth. I also suspect using Joe the Plumber is going to end up biting him on the arse as it is very dangerous to give people specific points they can check.

Unlike CNN though I think McCain came out on top in that debate, not by a lot though.

Monty .....
I've been cruising all of the other networks (including the big 3 AND the 24/7 ones) ... the political pundits and the viewers don't agree with you about the debate. They placed Obama ahead by almost a 3 to 1 margin. Independent viewers placed Obama ahead by an even bigger margin.

Whether part of the reason was McCain needed a home-run and didn't get it or the fact that Obama was clearly more Presidential right from the get go than was McCain, the consensus was that McCain struck out on most issues. Evidently you looked at the debate much differently than I or others did. McCain clenched his teeth, grimaced and reacted badly throughout the debate when Obama was answering accusations or negative comments that McCain inserted into this debate. McCain even reacted badly when Obama discussed his proposals. Obama was calm, cool, collected, centered and smiled throughout the debate. As far as issues, Obama was more clearly lucid about the programs he put forward. He was able to state them in such a way, that they were addressed directly to the voters. McCain on the other hand, mumbled and stuttered a number of times, and had to rephrase what he was going to say on a number of occasions.

BTW - Joe the Plumber did NOT resonate well with most voters (my self included). We wanted to know how the candidates were going to help US personally and could have cared less how McCain was going to help one single person. Once with the Joe the Plumber story would have been okay ... but ... placing "Joe the Plumber" as the central target for McCain's policies and programs, was a put-off. Let's face it, how many of us are Joe the Plumbers????? I am a six pack kinda guy ... the cheapest brand the store carries.

The 'biggest' strike that McCain was able to throw, was his comment to Obama 'If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run against him last term', when Obama mentioned McCain's proposals were just more of the same Bush policies of the last eight years.

Although the pundits and viewers called the win for Obama, they also said it wasn't a complete knock out punch. McCain had moments (even though they were few and far between).

Bottom line: You are in the minority with believing McCain won this last debate.

20 days and counting .........

 

[perseus]

US pollsters yesterday put John McCain's chances of overtaking Barack Obama in the final weeks to win the White House as extremely remote, given the lead the Democratic candidate has built up, the most recent poll putting him 14 points ahead.

Obama has lead of between +1.2 to +13.6% in 12 of the battleground states

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/16/uselections2008-barackobama

Betfair now have McCain at odds of 7 and has been steadily drifting.

So it looks as if something drastic may have to happen to change things round.

 

[MontyB]

Monty .....
I've been cruising all of the other networks (including the big 3 AND the 24/7 ones) ... the political pundits and the viewers don't agree with you about the debate. They placed Obama ahead by almost a 3 to 1 margin. Independent viewers placed Obama ahead by an even bigger margin.

Whether part of the reason was McCain needed a home-run and didn't get it or the fact that Obama was clearly more Presidential right from the get go than was McCain, the consensus was that McCain struck out on most issues. Evidently you looked at the debate much differently than I or others did. McCain clenched his teeth, grimaced and reacted badly throughout the debate when Obama was answering accusations or negative comments that McCain inserted into this debate. McCain even reacted badly when Obama discussed his proposals. Obama was calm, cool, collected, centered and smiled throughout the debate. As far as issues, Obama was more clearly lucid about the programs he put forward. He was able to state them in such a way, that they were addressed directly to the voters. McCain on the other hand, mumbled and stuttered a number of times, and had to rephrase what he was going to say on a number of occasions.

BTW - Joe the Plumber did NOT resonate well with most voters (my self included). We wanted to know how the candidates were going to help US personally and could have cared less how McCain was going to help one single person. Once with the Joe the Plumber story would have been okay ... but ... placing "Joe the Plumber" as the central target for McCain's policies and programs, was a put-off. Let's face it, how many of us are Joe the Plumbers????? I am a six pack kinda guy ... the cheapest brand the store carries.

The 'biggest' strike that McCain was able to throw, was his comment to Obama 'If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run against him last term', when Obama mentioned McCain's proposals were just more of the same Bush policies of the last eight years.

Although the pundits and viewers called the win for Obama, they also said it wasn't a complete knock out punch. McCain had moments (even though they were few and far between).

Bottom line: You are in the minority with believing McCain won this last debate.

20 days and counting .........

I agree that this Joe the Plumber thing will not do McCain any good especially since "Joe" wont say who he is voting for anyway.

The 'biggest' strike that McCain was able to throw, was his comment to Obama 'If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run against him last term', when Obama mentioned McCain's proposals were just more of the same Bush policies of the last eight years.

I disagree I think that was probably the high point of McCains debate after that he seemed to go into "Grandpa Simpson" mode (rambled on, shuffled about and eventually fell asleep) but it did the one thing he should have done right at the start of the campaign by separating himself from the Bush era.

Whether part of the reason was McCain needed a home-run and didn't get it or the fact that Obama was clearly more Presidential right from the get go than was McCain, the consensus was that McCain struck out on most issues.

This was always the problem for McCain though, when trailing in the polls he couldn't afford to sit back and look stately he had to try and make his point and unfortunately I don't think he has done that very well. I believe McCains campaign has been poorly thought out in terms of:

A) Picking Palin: She is clearly dragging in the conservative Republicans but they were always going to vote for him anyway, what he needed was someone to drag in the moderate Republicans, conservative Democrats and undecideds and it is obvious that she does not appeal to them. Or to be blunt, Dick Chenney in a dress wasn't what the people wanted.

B) Campaign Style: Running a negative campaign in a negative economic environment was suicidal, had the economic downturn not happened I think he would have had a much more successful campaign.

In the end you have two very different people, McCain is a politician and Obama a Statesman but a nations leader needs to have both skills.

As it goes I still do not think McCain is out of this race but I guess time will tell.

 

[Del Boy]

In the end you have two very different people, McCain is a politician and Obama a Statesman but in the end a nations leader needs to have both skills.

As it goes I still do not think McCain is out of this race but I guess time will tell.

In my opinion, you have presented the most measured views on this thread, and I more or less agree with your summing -up. Representing the incumbant party at a time of stumbling into what could become the worst financial and (hopefully not) financial situation must have made McCain's challenge an extremely difficult one, regardless of running mate.

Only one point to make - I would describe John McCain as a politician who has paid his dues, who might well be of the same stuff as many US presidents who have gone before; and Obama as a qualified career-politician who has learned very well the lesson of how to look like a Statesman. Remember, he is a lawyer , just like Nixon was............................very smart, very sharp.



For me the high point of the debate was when they shook hands at the end; we already knew the rest by heart.:lol:

 

[errol]

It's good to see someone like Chief Bones with some balls and call this election now.

The fat lady is definitely singing now and McCain knows it. That desperate look in his eyes during the debate told all. He's had it!!!

Latest odds from Centrebet Obama 1.10 and McCain 7.00

Get some money on McCain if you think it will be close, particularly the fence sitters, but he is now looking very "sub-prime". Just a lazy $10 on McCain. That shouldn't be a big worry, should it. Come on DelBoy, have a go! My money is definitely on Obama but it's going to be a lousy pay out.

It will be interesting to see how the Republicans hide the hockey mum over the next couple of weeks. Apart from the economy falling over, Palin's selection will be talked about as one of the biggest dumb-arse political moves made in this campaign, along with McCain's lack of control and direction.

 

[MontyB]

The fat lady is definitely singing now and McCain knows it. That desperate look in his eyes during the debate told all. He's had it!!!

Latest odds from Centrebet Obama 1.10 and McCain 7.00

Get some money on McCain if you think it will be close but he is now looking very "sub-prime".

I think someone should put his millbucks where his mouth is on this one.
They say a day in politics is an eternity which would indicate that there are 19 "eternities" to go and it only takes one boneheaded statement by either candidate or their campaign and 10 point leads evaporate in the time it takes to log on to the internet.

Yes I believe Obama has a 6-8 point lead but I would be prepared to put a few milbucks on him having less of a lead when the counting is done.

 

[errol]

It's good to see someone like Chief Bones with some balls and call this election now.

The fat lady is definitely singing now and McCain knows it. That desperate look in his eyes during the debate told all. He's had it!!!

Latest odds from Centrebet Obama 1.10 and McCain 7.00

Get some money on McCain if you think it will be close, particularly the fence sitters, but he is now looking very "sub-prime". Just a lazy $10 on McCain. That shouldn't be a big worry, should it. Come on DelBoy, have a go! My money is definitely on Obama but it's going to be a lousy pay out.

It will be interesting to see how the Republicans hide the hockey mum over the next couple of weeks. Apart from the economy falling over, Palin's selection will be talked about as one of the biggest dumb-arse political moves made in this campaign, along with McCain's lack of control and direction.

I think you'll be keeping your money in your pocket Monty.

 

[Chief Bones]

To be or not to be ... the fat lady sings ...

Hey Guys ...
I realize that 19 days is an eternity in the life of politics ... however, unless Obama stumbles over his own feet, the election is all but over. The fat lady is in the wings and is warming up for the finale.


One thing we don't discuss very often though, is the "race" card ... Obama has to be ahead by 7 points for the election to be considered as being tied (political pundit comment). The fact that Obama is so far ahead SHOULD indicate McCain has absolutely NO CHANCE ... but ... the oddsmakers odds in Vegas, DON'T reflect this "truth". Obama could lose because of the race card (slim chance but present nonetheless).

I agree with Monty ...
By the time the election rolls around in 19 days, the election COULD be much closer OR it could end up being a blowout greater than the Reagan landslide.

As Monty says, time will tell.

 

[MontyB]

It's good to see someone like Chief Bones with some balls and call this election now.

The fat lady is definitely singing now and McCain knows it. That desperate look in his eyes during the debate told all. He's had it!!!

Latest odds from Centrebet Obama 1.10 and McCain 7.00

Get some money on McCain if you think it will be close, particularly the fence sitters, but he is now looking very "sub-prime". Just a lazy $10 on McCain. That shouldn't be a big worry, should it. Come on DelBoy, have a go! My money is definitely on Obama but it's going to be a lousy pay out.

It will be interesting to see how the Republicans hide the hockey mum over the next couple of weeks. Apart from the economy falling over, Palin's selection will be talked about as one of the biggest dumb-arse political moves made in this campaign, along with McCain's lack of control and direction.

I think you'll be keeping your money in your pocket Monty.

You know I have watched New Zealand elections and and at least 3 of the last 5 were polled incorrectly, I have watched the last two American elections which were polled incorrectly and I recall something my High school rugby coach said before a match "Never count your chickens until they are hatched".

I have seen elections that were being called as so one sided that a large number of supporters of the party who were deemed the winner decided they would sooner watch the election from a bar and didn't vote consequently it was much closer than it should have been.

Nothing in politics is a sure bet.

Most of all I really don't care who wins the presidency I think both candidates are more than qualified for the job (VP's excluded) all I care about is that the current one goes away never to be heard from again.

Hey Guys ...
I realize that 19 days is an eternity in the life of politics ... however, unless Obama stumbles over his own feet, the election is all but over. The fat lady is in the wings and is warming up for the finale.

Yet today we have Murtha making comments that part of his constituency is "racist", we had some other plonker calling McCain's campaign a throw back to the segregationist days, all of this things do not help Obama's campaign especially since both comments were made in states with a close poll result.

If Obama has any sense he should be getting the Democrats to shut up, smile for the cameras and stop saying stupid things.

By the time the election rolls around in 19 days, the election COULD be much closer OR it could end up being a blowout greater than the Reagan landslide.

I agree either side can put their foot in it at any stage and the race is really now only Obama's to lose but he can still lose it.

 

[Chief Bones]

Broken divide by two .......

Monty ...
I agree with most of your last post. I also agree that nobody should count their chickens before they are hatched.

All I did, was to gather the commentaries from the political pundits ... along with CNN's Electoral College Vote Map, the debate polling numbers ... and ... present a cogent view of where the election stands in the last few days of the campaign.

Do I believe the numbers??? That isn't that hard a question to answer at this time. Poll numbers appear to support CNN's predictions. Early vote numbers (in swing states that have an Early Vote System), also support CNN's numbers (by almost a 3 to 1 margin).

19 days and counting (if my numbers are accurate). Being late in the evening {one in the morning}, my divide by two is suspect.

 

[MontyB]

Do I believe the numbers??? That isn't that hard a question to answer at this time. Poll numbers appear to support CNN's predictions. Early vote numbers (in swing states that have an Early Vote System), also support CNN's numbers (by almost a 3 to 1 margin).

Here is the problem with poll numbers:
9/02/08 - Obama - 49% McCain - 43%
9/9/08 - Obama - 46% McCain - 48%
9/17/08 - Obama - 46% McCain - 49%
10/14/08 - Obama - 50% McCain - 42%
10/16/08 - Obama - 49% McCain - 43%

In the space of a bit 6 weeks the lead has changed 3 times and we are back where we started in terms of numbers.
So unlike Errol I am still saying that this is too close to call although clearly it is "advantage Obama".


http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

and if that fails to sway you I still think this explains the position of politics worldwide.

Politics

<----- Note smilie face.

 

[perseus]

Here is the problem with poll numbers:
9/02/08 - Obama - 49% McCain - 43%
9/9/08 - Obama - 46% McCain - 48%
9/17/08 - Obama - 46% McCain - 49%
10/14/08 - Obama - 50% McCain - 42%
10/16/08 - Obama - 49% McCain - 43%

In the space of a bit 6 weeks the lead has changed 3 times and we are back where we started in terms of numbers.

Are these real changes or just statistical errors? Perhaps the real lead is more steady. As you said yourself it is the battlegrounds that count and Obama has a lead of 7.4% in these on average according to this source.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/16/uselections2008-barackobama

Of course this takes no account of any bias in between what people say and what they will do on election day. I remember John Major's last victory when all exit pollsters indicated a hung parliment yet he won easily, people were embarrased to admit they voted for a party in which there was scandal after scandal.

 

[MontyB]

Are these real changes or just statistical errors? Perhaps the real lead is more steady. As you said yourself it is the battlegrounds that count and Obama has a lead of 7.4% in these on average according to this source.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/16/uselections2008-barackobama

Of course this takes no account of any bias in between what people say and what they will do on election day. I remember John Major's last victory when all exit pollsters indicated a hung parliment yet he won easily, people were embarrased to admit they voted for a party in which there was scandal after scandal.

My personal belief is that we are about to start seeing the two parties figures trending towards each other as people start to realise that it is time to be honest about who they are voting for and away from the popular vote.

But you are right, John Majors victory in that election is a good example of why it is fatal to declare things a done deal before the votes are counted.

 

[errol]

Latest odds McCain 8.00 Obama 1.08 !!!

It's going to be a cake walk for Barak.

 

[MontyB]

Latest odds McCain 8.00 Obama 1.08 !!!

It's going to be a cake walk for Barak.

I have no doubt that in the "popular" vote Obama is leading comfortably but the popular vote is pretty much worthless, the whole process boils down to half a dozen contested States, if you go to any of the polling sites with interactive maps and remove all of the states whose percentage for either character is less than 5% (remembering that margin for error in most polls is 3.5%) you will see that this election is not decided by any stretch of the imagination.