The loser is Hezbollah. Before this latest scrap, they held all of South Lebanon, which was a functioning country with a working economy and a vibrant society. Now, the local and national infrastructures are ruined, the economy is mostly gone, the society they were supposed to be defending is shattered, and they are totally unable to remove that bloody big invading army that has gone right through their territory and then decided that it liked the view and will stick around for a while. In addition, they have lost a lot of their fighters and quite a bit of their arsenals, and in the trade, they have managed to inflict only light damage to the Israelis. Before the fighting started, mortars and missiles were coming down into Israel, but with the ceasefire, they have ALL stopped. Now, one would expect, that with a victory, the other side would be battered, bleeding and forced to withdraw... Hmmmm... can't say I've seen a lot of that.
As for the so-called political victory, that was won before the first shot was fired. It is a simple fact of life that if the Israeli Army fights with anyone, Arab sympathy will be with the people they are fighting against. The Israelis made no effort to wage any kind of political war, knowing very well that it was useless to do so. They were looking for one thing, and the UN may yet give it to them without them having to fire any more shots. The winners here are the Israelis, although it is, for the moment, a half victory. The final victory will come when the Lebanese Army really controls South Lebanon and Hezbollah is fully disarmed. I have my doubts that that will ever happen, but if it does not, we can expect to see the third installment of the Israel-Hezbollah war in the near future.

Dean.

Nicely done Dean ... your summation was pointed and well reasoned out ... however ... you miss the fact that every time that Iran can twitch the reins of their terrorist arm, and cause any discomfort for Israel, they make points with the rest of the Arab countries surrounding Israel that wish for the erasure of Israel from the face of the earth. Continued activism of Iran without being held accountable by the western world, can only make it that much harder to take them to task for their actions when enough is enough ... and ... the western nations finally get around to dealing with Iran.

Originally Posted by Chief Bones

Nicely done Dean ... your summation was pointed and well reasoned out ... however ... you miss the fact that every time that Iran can twitch the reins of their terrorist arm, and cause any discomfort for Israel, they make points with the rest of the Arab countries surrounding Israel that wish for the erasure of Israel from the face of the earth. Continued activism of Iran without being held accountable by the western world, can only make it that much harder to take them to task for their actions when enough is enough ... and ... the western nations finally get around to dealing with Iran.

It was pointed out that Syria is willing to fight Israel to the last... Lebanese, and that Iran is willing to fight Israel to the last Lebanese and... Syrian! There is a great deal of truth in that, and yes CB, I do realize that. In fact, the Syrian tweaking of Hezbollah has been very subtle and incredibly effective, and they are no doubt incredibly happy that this has occurred. Iran is indeed a problem that will have to be faced sooner or later, but for the moment, the international community through the UN may in fact have trumped Iran and Syria. If they follow through effectively in ths situation, and Hezbollah is disarmed, Syria will lose two things; most of their political clout and physical control of Lebanon, as well as any way of directly attacking the Israelis. The Iranians will lose the same, although they are better positioned to support Hamas. However, the "but" in all of this is huge, and I am very pessimistic about the capability of the UN to do anything. The biggest UN donors are currently ineffective, (US and UK) the other traditional donors are close to tapped out or would not be allowed to participate, (Canada, Germany, probably France) and NATO seems content to sit this one out. Neutralizing Hezbollah is going to be a dirty job, and I really do not see who can do it. All I can think of is Poland, France, NATO (other than those already mentioned), Japan, maybe China, and hell, that's about it. But seriously, I do not see any of those countries clamouring for the job. This is a really shitty situation, but Israel has little to lose, as they can now play the waiting game. If things progress to their satisfaction, everyone will be happy. If not, we'll hear the booming from here.

Dean.

Dean
The spoiler in this whole stinking mess is that I also do not see any country(s) that would be able to neutralize Hezbollah by disarming them. The ONLY country that would be able to come even close, would be the United States and that would bring all of the other anti-American Arab countries crawling out of the woodwork with their own terrorist groups in order to give the US a black eye.

Barring the disarming of Hezbollah, death and dying is the ONLY SURE THING on the horizon in this situation. Chances are that it will be the Peace Keeping Troops no matter what the country (or) makeup of the force.

Military victory for Israel and a political one for Hezbollah.

"The army loses by not winning. The guerrilla wins by not losing." Henry Kissinger.

Hezbolla dropped 250 rockets into northern Israel the last day of the fighting. Israel did not take away the ability of Hezbolla to fire rockets into Israel, nor do they have their two soldiers back. Israel has achieved a fragile cease fire and a U.N. mandate for Hezbolla to be disarmed near the border, two things they had before the fighting started.

Originally Posted by 2dold4this

"The army loses by not winning. The guerrilla wins by not losing." Henry Kissinger.

Hezbolla dropped 250 rockets into northern Israel the last day of the fighting. Israel did not take away the ability of Hezbolla to fire rockets into Israel, nor do they have their two soldiers back. Israel has achieved a fragile cease fire and a U.N. mandate for Hezbolla to be disarmed near the border, two things they had before the fighting started.

Yes, but you missed another point. The Lebanese Army will be moving into South Lebanon, which Israel also wanted. Hezbollah can do many things, but if it fights the Lebanese, then it loses all of its legitimacy and its support will dry up. So the way this one should work out, the Israelis hand over captured territory to the UN, which in turn will hand it over to the Lebanese. In addition, the UN Forces are now armed participants rather than unarmed observers, and have the right to react far more robustly than they have been able to do in the past. In additon, Hezbollah must be very careful in dealing with the UN, as attacking them can also be dangerous to their image.
Yes, Israel did have a UN mandate for the disarmament of Hezbollah, but now they also have the mechanism by which it can be accomplished, which is something they never had. The real result of this war was to remove the vacuum in which Lebanon had allowed Hezbollah to prosper, and force the Lebanese government to exert its authority in the south. It should have done so years ago, but in fairness, its failure to do so can be laid more at the feet of the Syrians. But the price they have paid for that oversight is very very high.

Dean.

Originally Posted by Chief Bones

Dean
The spoiler in this whole stinking mess is that I also do not see any country(s) that would be able to neutralize Hezbollah by disarming them. The ONLY country that would be able to come even close, would be the United States and that would bring all of the other anti-American Arab countries crawling out of the woodwork with their own terrorist groups in order to give the US a black eye.

The US cannot and will not send troops into this mess. However, any of the Arab countries can disarm Hezbollah, as Hezbollah would lose its support if it started to fight other Arabs. The problem is that very few, if any Arab countries want to be seen as protecting Israel, so I do not think we will see any there. If Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, maybe Turkey and ironically perhaps Greece were to send troops, the job could indeed be done. France would also be quite effective in this one.

Originally Posted by Chief Bones

Barring the disarming of Hezbollah, death and dying is the ONLY SURE THING on the horizon in this situation. Chances are that it will be the Peace Keeping Troops no matter what the country (or) makeup of the force.

You are probably right. But for the moment, I choose to be a bit more optimistic on this one, only because the Lebanese government is finally moving into the south. That alone makes the job of Hezbollah far more difficult.

Dean.

Originally Posted by Dean

Yes, but you missed another point. The Lebanese Army will be moving into South Lebanon, which Israel also wanted. Hezbollah can do many things, but if it fights the Lebanese, then it loses all of its legitimacy and its support will dry up. So the way this one should work out, the Israelis hand over captured territory to the UN, which in turn will hand it over to the Lebanese. In addition, the UN Forces are now armed participants rather than unarmed observers, and have the right to react far more robustly than they have been able to do in the past. In additon, Hezbollah must be very careful in dealing with the UN, as attacking them can also be dangerous to their image.
Yes, Israel did have a UN mandate for the disarmament of Hezbollah, but now they also have the mechanism by which it can be accomplished, which is something they never had. The real result of this war was to remove the vacuum in which Lebanon had allowed Hezbollah to prosper, and force the Lebanese government to exert its authority in the south. It should have done so years ago, but in fairness, its failure to do so can be laid more at the feet of the Syrians. But the price they have paid for that oversight is very very high.

Dean.

The mandate is a problem. We don't have a chapter seven resolution and we don't know the make up of the peace keeping forces. Hezbolla doesn't have to attack the Lebanese army. The Lebanese army would have to attack Hezbolla.

I was really suprised when Hezballah declared that they won... He shouldn't talk about a victory cuz about 1100 civilians died because of him. And also Israel killed a lot of Hezballah guerillas so I think that Israel is the winner.

Also I know the loser... Civilians, civilians, civilians...

Interesting link:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14351426/