It seems that regime change is almost complete in Libya, after a rare co-ordinated assault on Tripoli by the various rebel factions, which seems to have taken everyone by surprise. Perhaps NATO had something to do with this or is that in itself contradictory!

Will Libya fare any better than Iraq? Some political analysts claim it is nothing more than a collection of tribes. Will the West demand compensation for the military cost via oil generating cynicism of the true motives? What will happen to Qaddafi and his sons, measured justice at the International court of human justice at the Hague or a Saddam like end via the rope?

Originally Posted by perseus

Perhaps NATO had something to do with this or is that in itself contradictory!

It is unlikely that the rebel forces are fighting on their own. Watch for any signs of special operations forces from participating NATO countries quietly leading the offensive and preparing operations.

Originally Posted by 42RM

It is unlikely that the rebel forces are fighting on their own. Watch for any signs of special operations forces from participating NATO countries quietly leading the offensive and preparing operations.

Yes, I rwad an article a few months ago about how SAS had been inserted into some of the tribal areas to make contact with the Brega Tribesmen there (for supply missions). So I'll wager OPFOR is there (and has been for awhile) keeping a low profile.

On a related note, the French have admitted to supplying small arms to the Rebels in the same area (Brega), so the fact SAS was there earlier might not have been a coincidence.

Originally Posted by perseus

Will Libya fare any better than Iraq?

Rather than an Iraqi-style insurgency, perhaps a bigger concern is that the situation in Libya could become similar to those seen after the overthrow of the regimes in Somalia in 1991 and Afghanistan in 1992. In those cases, the factions that took down the incumbent governments began fighting with one another — and some of the remnants of the former regimes — in a free-for-all battle for control after failing to agree on a power-sharing formula.

Yup, a "failed state" is far more likely.

Libya will devolve into another dictatorship of some sort. The various rebel groups will fight each other for power. One will reign supreme and will crush the others with secret police, etc.... The American Experiment is a rare thing.

I truly believe that the majority fared better under American and European Colonialism. Africa, some parts of Asia, and some parts of the Middle East. Didn't have ethnic cleansing, rebel factions, etc....

I have to say that South America has done pretty good for the majority of it's modern history. Yeah, there have been civil wars and communists revolutionaries (that need to get wiped off the face of the Earth) but for the most part South America is pretty civilized.

As the experiences of recent years in Iraq and Afghanistan have vividly illustrated, it is far easier to depose a regime than it is to govern a country. History is replete with examples of coalition fronts that united to overthrow an oppressive regime but then splintered and fell into internal fighting once the regime they fought against was toppled.

A rubble of a rebellion are suddenly well coordinated and well carried out.
I wonder how THAT came to be.

Two ways that place can go.

1. A country where power is shared amongst the tribes in some sort of tribal system.
2. Up shits creek without a paddle.

The number one option CAN work if the surrounding world keep true to their word and only support the people realizing that the powersharing is best for their nation.
But I reckon companies will start bidding for contracts playing different tribes against one and other untill the place erupts in total anarchy.

Only time will tell.

KJ sends..

iraq looked pretty f***ed for a while but now its steadily building a future. so i think whatever happens in libya and egypt and syria will take a while to play out and we will ahve to wait and see what happens.


i see iran trying to exert influence to have things stay the same they dont want mopre democratic states in the area to eventually rile up their people to the same point that the arabs currently and really enact change

any change is good, and is really needed, in libya, syria, and to a different degree, in egypt

Outside influence exploiting regional and tribal fault lines is also a potential danger in Libya. Egypt is a relatively powerful neighbor that has long tried to meddle in Libya and has long coveted its energy wealth. While Egypt is currently focused on its own internal issues as well as the Israel/Palestinian issue, its attention could very well return to Libya in the future. Italy, the United Kingdom and France also have a history of involvement in Libya.