Originally Posted by Doppleganger

There is one thing you have missed, which is the effect of the possible muslimification of Western Europe. This could have a fundamental effect on the policies of one of the most influential and richest areas of the planet.

http://209.157.64.200/focus/f-news/1056046/posts

The above link is interesting and alarmist, but I'm not sure whether things will exactly come to pass as it postulates. I would like to state that the above link does not reflect my own opinion, but it's quite revealing nonetheless.

Thank you.

Indeed, that is an important input and that should also be considered and the ways evolved where immigrants do not impose their culture over the native culture of the country (the way France is trying).

And what is the effect of immigrant culture that is going unchecked as in Britain.

If the political correctness becomes a runaway horse, then it will surely skew the whole world equation.

This commentary is also interesting.

"Washington will be increasingly uncomfortable with the challenges that Western Europe's more independent posture poses to its leadership. But in the final analysis the Community's growing unity can be an enormous asset for the United States if a new basis for cooperation between America and Europe on economic and defense matters can ... "

This is from the book Redefining Europe and the Atlantic Link
Robert D. Hormats

Robert D. Hormats is Vice Chairman, Goldman Sachs International. He was Assistant Secretary of State for Economic and Business Affairs in 1981 and 1982, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative from 1978 to 1981, and Senior Staff Member for International Economic Affairs on the National Security Council staff in the early 1970s.

First off, Al Qaida is a very very decentralized outfit.
Secondly, U.S. has never had a hegemony in Asia. As you are seeing right now, the U.S. policy is to make N.Korea deal with the Chinese. Basically we are saying "China, clean up your own back yard." They are the dominant power in that region and the involvement of the U.S. is to keep that dominant power in check.

I think that Aide and Relief operations will still be dependant on the USA. I mean look at the Tsunami Disaster. But, I really don't know.

Originally Posted by Whispering Death

First off, Al Qaida is a very very decentralized outfit.
Secondly, U.S. has never had a hegemony in Asia. As you are seeing right now, the U.S. policy is to make N.Korea deal with the Chinese. Basically we are saying "China, clean up your own back yard." They are the dominant power in that region and the involvement of the U.S. is to keep that dominant power in check.

Since we don't know much about the AQ (at least through open sources), it would be a tad difficult to pinpoint is heirachy and control over others. I think the US NIC 2020 opines semi centralised. I take it for whatever that is worth.

US has no hegemony per se in Asia. But it does have immense influence in the events in Asia. South Korea, Japan and Taiwan are in the sphere of influence and these countries have a key role in the strategic perspective.

That apart, to vector on to Europe.

How best can the US allay the Russian fear of being encircled? This is a key issue since Russia can play a major role to destabilise the old Soviet states that are now Independent.

It is important to take the Russian aspect into consideration since already it is playing Iran against the US.

France's economy seems to be on the move, even though slightly (as per the CNBC) and she is trying to exert herself in the EU. Germany, if she stabilises economically, then she has tremendous potential as a major European nation (wonder when she will stabilise though). UK's election will be key issue.

Therefore, inspite of this flux, how can the US influence the EU (the former Warsaw Pact countries are firmly behind the US) to strengthen the Europe US equation, and even if they disagree in so far as Iraq, at least have a common platform of address for the remainder of the world.

That US and EU shape global destiny, of that there is no doubt.

Islamisation will also affect the countries of Europe since they would not like to have an internal security problem that is out in the open i.e. armed insurrection of a light variety (if there is anything like that).

No we know a lot about how AQ operates. In 9/11 they picked a small team to execute a plan, they where individually smuggled into the ocuntry and operated in small groups who reported no higher than to their team leader. Even before they got into the U.S. they where no longer under Osama Bin-Laddin. Also look at the terorrists in the Phillipines, quite a different batch than the Saudis; completely different MO, warfare style, culture, not much direct contact with OBL to speak of yet they are still connected with AQ.

Madrid Train bombings where more the standard flashy AQ MO, and this coroborates what we know about AQ through 9/11. The higher ups create the plan, pick the team, and finance, and they send the team to go off autonomously to try and fulfill the plan as best they can.

Al-Zarqawi claims to be an AQ operative now but we know of no affiliation between him and OBL. His MO is way different than what we think of as the standard AQ MO or even the AQ-sponsored MO like in the Philpines.

Very decentralized.

Originally Posted by Sexybeast

it is more like a multi-super power world in the future, rather than U.S is the king of the world

That depends on your opinion. Is the USA actually king of the world now? I believe that they only manage to appear to be based 100% on a delicate balancing act. The USA intervenes in situations where they are able to tip the balance. The USA is in excellent geographical position to play the game that way. They are able to intervene in situations involving countries weaker than them becoming a threat to the USA or others.

The USA absolutely cannot just (agressively) walz into China or India or Europe uninvited -- that is not counting nukes. The USA has the freedom of movement, diplomatic ties and military might to be the most powerful influencing nation on the planet. But if I am king, shouldn't I have the power to forcably put my subjects back into line?

This idea of U.S. being king is very odd... I can't think of one time in history this has been the case. Now instead of 2 superpowers you have the U.S. and a variety of smaller powers filling the vacum left by the Soviet Union. You know what I see in the future? I see some of these rivaling powers (EU, Russia, China, India) getting into tangles as they try to vie for the piece of the power pie that the U.S. doesn't occupy.

I think that we can leave this 'King' issue not nettle serious discussion, notwithstanding how sentimental that rationale be on either sides.

A discussion would be more fruitful devoid of 'name calling' (if that is the word I want?). The same sentiment could be expressed with some inputs that would achieve the prupose as also educate or awaken.

It is not that I wish to hector, but I am am very keen to know what others around the world feel and ways out of this rather interesting situation without resorting to war and with the interest of all nations more or less intact.

That was the rationale why I raised this thread.

I sure would feel a bit sad if this goes the same way my last thread went - like an fighter aircraft hit by the enemy - in flames!

Originally Posted by Peter Pan

I think that we can leave this 'King' issue not nettle serious discussion, notwithstanding how sentimental that rationale be on either sides.

A discussion would be more fruitful devoid of 'name calling' (if that is the word I want?).

"Stereotyping" perhaps? You are quite right, it isn't important to the discussion.

So what direction were you looking for the discussion to go? "This situation" can mean several things.

Thor ( I hope you don't mind the short name)

Thank you. Then stereotyping it is.

Before we hit the world order, let's segmentise the discussion for ease of comprehension and contributiuon since we can flit from continent to continent.

The issue is solely US and its role in the Coming World Order till 2020.

While other Nation maybe vying to be Global Powers, but we would do well to keep it US Centric and if we are to discuss the influence of such challengers we could dwell as to how they can hinder it or assist it and what would be the counter to it and this could also be cranked in.

Let's first tackle Europe and its Equation with the US.

Europe can be discussed under the four points I mentioned and Islamisation which I think you or Whisper mentioned.

Islamisation

Let's look at Islamisation.

There is the threat of Islam swamping Europe and skewing the political and cultural fabric.

Therefore, to obviate this a Euro -Islam culture has to be enforced so as to nullify the radicalism that is prevalent in their lands of origin.

Theocratic schools should be banned and secular education enforced. Religion and religious teaching should be kept within the four walls of the home. Embarrassing as it may appear, but the French way of forcing a common dress in schools and Preachers of all religions forced to impart their God's word in French, would go a long way to build the a common French identity.

In fact, with modern education, some Islamic mindset is changing. They have serious doubts about the concept of jihad (if Time magazine is correct) TIME states:

A survey carried out by the Mori agency for Eastern Eye, Britain's biggest selling Asian newspaper, shows that 87% of the Muslims polled are loyal to Britain, even though 64% oppose the U.S.-led strikes against Afghanistan.

It should be mandatory for immigrants to undertake a psychological test as also some type of a test to sift the wheat from the chaff.

That much for the Islamisation and it being secondary to the national identity.

Another worrisome aspect that can affect global strategy is that Islamic nation because of their oil wealth have heavily subscribed to the US and European economy.


Economy

The Islamic countries have invested vast sums of money upfront which can be controlled; yet vast amounts that are laundered cannot be controlled. What are the ways and means that can be employed to ensure that the Islamic countries do not have the leverage to play the European economy to suit their purpose?

In so far as the US and Europe equation and also the global equation, what should be done to ensure that the WTO is fair to all countries and competitive so as to make the economy nd the equations more predictable?

What are the means by which, within the WTO arrangement, US continues to call the shots.

One of the above board ways is cornering the oilfields or at least influence its fortunes and then using the oil prices and productions to manipulate the markets. I have explained this in details elsewhere with reference to the Defence Policy Guidance and the National Energy Policy.

Russia

The US has organised the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in 2003. This led to the Revolution of the Roses and other former USSR states freeing itself from the sphere of Russia. Therefore Russia feels threatened.

What are the means by which the fear of being encircled can be reduced. The negative offshoot is that Russia is cosying up to Iran over the nuclear question and Russia is a nuclear power. This could result in a stand off.

Therefore, what should be done in the short term and what in the long term?

How Europe could be brought back to the old form of Europe US Relations

You all are experts and so I leave it to your suggestions.

And so on.