US economic, military and political dominance is likely to decline over the next two decades, according to a new US intelligence report on global trends.
The National Intelligence Council (NIC) predicts China, India and Russia will increasingly challenge US influence.
It also says the dollar may no longer be the world's major currency, and food and water shortages will fuel conflict.
However, the report concedes that these outcomes are not inevitable and will depend on the actions of world leaders.
It will make sombre reading for President-elect Barack Obama, the BBC's Jonathan Beale in Washington says, as it paints a bleak picture of the future of US influence and power.



The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant
Global Trends 2025

"The next 20 years of transition to a new system are fraught with risks," says Global Trends 2025, the latest of the reports that the NIC prepares every four years in time for the next presidential term.
Washington will retain its considerable military advantages, but scientific and technological advances; the use of "irregular warfare tactics"; the proliferation of long-range precision weapons; and the growing use of cyber warfare "increasingly will constrict US freedom of action", it adds.
Nevertheless, the report concludes: "The US will remain the single most important actor but will be less dominant."
Nuclear weapons use
The NIC's 2004 study painted a rosier picture of America's global position, with US dominance expected to continue.
But the latest Global Trends report says that rising economies such as China, India, Russia and Brazil will offer the US more competition at the top of a multi-polar international system.



NIC REPORT
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The EU is meanwhile predicted to become a "hobbled giant", unable to turn its economic power into diplomatic or military muscle.
A world with more power centres will be less stable than one with one or two superpowers, it says, offering more potential for conflict.
Global warming, along with rising populations and economic growth will put additional strains on natural resources, it warns, fuelling conflict around the globe as countries compete for them.
"Strategic rivalries are most likely to revolve around trade, investments and technological innovation and acquisition, but we cannot rule out a 19th Century-like scenario of arms races, territorial expansion and military rivalries," the report says.
"Types of conflict we have not seen for a while - such as over resources - could re-emerge."


Such conflicts and resource shortages could lead to the collapse of governments in Africa and South Asia, and the rise of organised crime in Eastern and Central Europe, it adds.
And the use of nuclear weapons will grow increasingly likely, the report says, as "rogue states" and militant groups gain greater access to them.
But al-Qaeda could decay "sooner than people think", it adds, citing the group's growing unpopularity in the Muslim world.
"The prospect that al-Qaeda will be among the small number of groups able to transcend the generational timeline is not high, given its harsh ideology, unachievable strategic objectives and inability to become a mass movement," it says.
The NIC does, however, give some scope for leaders to take action to prevent the emergence of new conflicts.
"It is not beyond the mind of human beings, or political systems, [or] in some cases [the] working of market mechanisms to address and alleviate if not solve these problems," said Thomas Fingar, chairman of the NIC.
And, our correspondent adds, it is worth noting that US intelligence has been wrong before.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/7741049.stm


Oddly enough the BBC report is not as interesting as the report it quotes though...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h...nal_Report.pdf

"increasingly will constrict US freedom of action"

I specifically like this one sentence. It is about time that the US seizes to be the world's hegemon. I hope that the believe in cooperation will overcome the will do their own bidding. In a growing global village we can't have one master, like feudal times. The need to compromise with others make for far better neighbors than doing what you want, when and where you want. Perhaps the US will do her allies the courtesy of telling them what they are about to do because they need these allies. Friendship is based on equality and not dominance. So let's see what happens...

I bet Ted masturbated reading this article.

Originally Posted by the_13th_redneck

I bet Ted masturbated reading this article.

sour grapes.

I believe that the US will still be a world power, only if we get our heads out of our *ss and acknowledge that our allies aren't just supporters of us, but that we should support them in their times of need as well. (i.e. Georgia)

Originally Posted by the_13th_redneck

I bet Ted masturbated reading this article.

Let me start off by saying I could go many ways with this. For instance:
1) Nope Redneck, I am a virile man and got it off three times!

2) This is exactly the attitude that left the US so many friends in Europe.... about zero. Just some opportunists that pay you lip service.

3) Well alright then, keep doing everything by yourself, including paying for all the fun. It won't be long before every institution is bought by some oriental power and the time to pay for that enormous international debt is up.....

or

4) Read my first post again and comment on the friendship based on equality and not dominance. We have had to tip toe through the last four centuries, making compromises here and there. And you what, we are doing quite alright nowadays. Equal friends are those you can count on when the doodoo hits the ceiling. The other ones leave you out to dry whenever it suits them.... I hate to rely on those so called friends. .

I have pointed out here long ago that we just might have to face a world where America was not longer able or willing to lead as it has done.

I just cannot the celebrations some demonstrate over this.

If USA becomes isolationist just watch this space, all you bandwagon creeps and ingrates out there

Guys rather than starting a fight over nothing can I suggest you read the report (pdf at the bottom) as it is a very interesting breakdown of global trends and problems that are going to face the world.

I know it is a lot to ask expecting people on this board to read further than the heading but in this case it is worth it.

Good , bad or indifferent,... it does seem to be the way things are going, and if so it is not necessarily all bad, either for the USA or her Allies.

As an American I see no problem with this report. We often tell people that "Freedom isn't Free" it is about time the citizens of other countries earn their own freedom by dieing instead of American soldiers doing the dieing for them. If China, Russia, India, or a United Europe want to be more involved that's OK. It seems that the United States took on a roll of International Police that we never wanted anyway.

Other countries can have the level of freedom that they desire and do not have to meet the standard that we enjoy in the United States. If they want more freedoms then earn them.

China may not have the human rights that Americans enjoy but it is their country. Maybe through more free exchange of ideas over time this would change. The best way would probably be from internal change.

I am sure that their are some Germans and Japanese that wish the United States had not interfered years ago. There are people in other countries who would probably disagree. I think that most Germans and Japanese are more satisfied with the system of government they developed after the past disagreement.

I do not have a problem with leaving Iraq to the Iraqis. When they get tired of killing each other I am sure who ever is left will come to some kind of agreement with each other. (Not trying to be mean spirited here but think eventually this is what will happen).

As a Vietnam veteran I have learned that our government isn't all ways right. While I still support the US government as one of the best systems in the world, I don't think it is perfect. With the state of the world economy being what it is, it is time the US pull back and clean up our own internal messes.

I don't mean we should be isolationists just more realistic when dealing with other countries.

^^^ I couldn't have said it better myself^^^

It appears that even those of us who were lied to and then piddled upon, about Vietnam, gained something from it, even if it was just a very healthy suspicion about Political agendas.